Good Start, and Questions Questions...

Thank you so much, dear reader, for your interest in my new Geegeez Laying Service (GLS), and for your patience on Friday when amidst the fanfares and footfall, there was a - by now - traditional launch day cock up on the part of yours truly.

Due to said technical glitch, a number of you were unable to access the members' area, causing much gnashing of teeth on everyone's part. So, again, thank you for signing up, and thank you for your patience whilst those day one issues were resolved.

And what of the service since launch? Well, nobody should have made or lost any money yet, because you should all be paper trading ;o)

However, if you had been playing for real, you'd currently be 4.62 points to the good. That is, for tenners, you'd be £46.20 in front. Of course, it's ridiculously early days just yet, and there will be many a swing and roundabout before the trial period elapses.

Just to be clear on one point before I move on - at the end of this week, the trial period available for Geegeez Laying System will truncate to either a week or a fortnight (I'm undecided, but leaning towards the shorter spell). This means that you, my faithful reader, have the opportunity to basically get a month's free access. That's an offer not available anywhere else (as nobody is promoting this service - there's no affiliate programme).

If you want to sign up, please click here.

Of course, with a new service there have been a lot (a LOT!) of questions, and I've done my best to answer as many of them as possible. The most common ones are available on an FAQ page that I've created and will continue to update as new queries come my way.

Feel free to take a peek at that here.

And of course, you'll want to know the results.... check the latest results here.

Apart from 'how do I log in?', the most common question so far is from those in the vast majority who have a day job to do which prevents them from being in front of their computer at off time.

Let me clear: although there are some odds parameters involved with GLS, it is far from my intention to shackle you to your machine!

And these days, there's no reason at all why you should be. Most of you will be aware of bot software, and many of you will already own such a tool. For those of you who don't know about these marvellous inventions, they basically automate your trading for you.

This means you can set things up in the morning (or whenever), and leave it to place your lays as and when the appropriate criteria are matched.

For the relatively simple requirements of GLS, pretty much all bots will be able to assist. However, when pushed for a recommendation, as I often am, I'd slightly favour Grey Horse Bot currently (there are new tools coming to market all the time).

It's £15 for the first month and £20 for the 2nd month. Thereafter, it's £25 monthly. Not necessarily the cheapest, but for ease of use and 'functional richness' (i.e. what it can do), I reckon it's the best of - it should be said - a pretty good bunch.

I've added a link in the 'Geegeez Recommends' section to the right of this post, so if you're interested in automating your wagering and don't already have a bot, check this one out.

[Incidentally, if you want to know about alternatives, consider BetAngel, LayBotPro and BetTrader].

Sign up for Geegeez Laying System today, and take advantage of the four week trial offer.

********

Elsewhere, and hats off to Fairyhouse for their enterprise. On an excellent card, the racecourse actually auctioned the first race sponsorship on eBay Ireland. I was tempted to bid but thought it would go too high, as the course was also offering a generous hospitality package to the winning bidder.

The winning bid was 'just' 1,511 euros (about £1,200). Considering they were also offering ten tickets to a box, and that the race is a Grade 3 which will doubtless be shown many times in the future, I really feel like I've missed a trick here. It could and should have been the 'Geegeez Laying System Juvenile 3-Y-O Hurdle (Grade 3)'.

Well done to the Irish Rover Bar, New York, who claimed this excellent prize. Although Fairyhouse may be disappointed with the value of the winning bid, they've done brilliantly from the publicity, so hats off all round (except to me, for not being in the bidding!).

Later on the same card, the brilliant unbeaten bumper horse, Cousin Vinny, makes his hurdling bow in the Grade 1 Bond Novice Hurdle. He must be doing it all right at home to begin in one of the top novice events prior to the Cheltenham Festival (previous winners in the last ten years include Alexander Banquet, Hardy Eustace, Moscow Flyer, and Newmill).

It's a watching brief for me, but he will mark himself as a truly exciting prospect if he wins this.

That race is followed by the Drinmore Novices Chase, which is also full of top drawer prospects. Forpadydeplasterer, Trafford Lad and Tranquil Sea all line up, and only a token selection is Trafford Lad. Again, this event will be instructive with regards to the Festival chances of the key protagonists.

As if that wasn't enough, both of these races are trumped by a third Grade 1, the Hatton's Grace Hurdle, featuring the aforementioned (and now most venerable) Hardy Eustace, as well as Brave Inca, Kazal, Catch Me and Muirhead. Catch Me could turn into the best Irish hope for the Champion Hurdle (now we've hopefully burst the Jered bubble), and I take him to win today. Muirhead may give him most to do.

That's all for now.

Happy Sunday,

Matt

I've Decided To Give It To You Early...

It's a curious thing is contrariness, dear reader, a very curious thing. I'm not sure I could have been any clearer about the fact that my exciting new Laying System service was not going 'live' until Monday, and please don't sign up yet. Bizarrely, I've had nearly twenty people sign up!

So, fingers aching from writing to people to ask them please to withhold their applications, I've decided to open up early... but only under a couple of conditions.

IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ

As my regular reader will know, I preach responsible betting from the Geegeez lectern, and I strongly encourage members of my services to paper trade before investing any of their hard earned.

So it was that TrainerTrackStats - no longer my product, but still bearing my mark - launched with a month's access to the member site and the TTS manual itself for a quid.

The reason for this was simple. I believe that you should be able to trial any product, either for free (or next to free), or with a money back guarantee.

For Laying System, I am launching the service with a month's free access (five weeks if you want the better value that a quarterly sub offers). But I am only promoting this to Geegeez and TTS subscribers, and I am only doing so for a short space of time.

At the end of next week, I will revert to a 14 day trial, regardless of which periodicity subscription you indicate as your preference.

So.... please, Please, PLEASE take this opportunity to paper trade the selections with a fictional bank in the first instance.

Laying System is a fully researched system (comprised of three sub-systems), which has performed as follows over the past four years [note, for the third dataset below, the 'year' ended in May 2008, as it is a jumps season]:


YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

2004 112 1137 9.85 -334.67 -29.43
2005 134 1252 10.7 -282.92 -22.6
2006 124 1227 10.11 -396.09 -32.28
2007 66 647 10.2 -185.42 -28.66


Total 436 4263 10.22 -1199.1 -28.12


YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

2004 37 186 19.89 -76.32 -41.03
2005 45 171 26.32 -26.19 -15.32
2006 73 306 23.86 -71.71 -23.43
2007 31 128 24.22 -37.07 -28.96


Total 186 791 23.51 -211.29 -26.71


YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

2004 29 278 10.43 -91.01 -32.74
2005 17 253 6.72 -140.5 -55.53
2006 19 265 7.17 -95.67 -36.1
2007 22 259 8.49 -93.25 -36

Total 87 1055 8.24 -420.43 -39.85

OVERALL

WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%
709 6109 11.60 -1830.82 -29.96


The overall loss of 30% to a level stake means that laying horses at, on average, 16-20% over SP leaves a profit margin / RoI of 10-14%.

Note that you MUST have a bank of 100 points to start or, at the very least, 75 points. This means, as an absolute minimum, you must be prepared to start with £150 in a separate 'bank' and lay to win just £2 per selection (meaning a profit, after exchange commissions at 5%, of £1.90).

Obviously, I recommend a higher bank, but it is possible to start at this level and build up relatively quickly (and in a controlled manner).

The growth chart, based on laying at 20% over SP and 5% commissions on winning trades, for those four years is alongside.

Again, let me repeat the need for discipline. You will note that there have been some periods of stasis in the results, where the profit figure neither increased nor declined. This happens. You will also notice some small drops - also known as losses - in the short term. Obviously, this also happens.

What I am trying to say here is that this is a responsible, thoroughly researched service, which requires responsible disciplined users. If you're going to complain when the first horse goes off at 6/1 and wins, wiping out your bank, then you've missed the point and this isn't for you.

If, however, you understand that the war with the bookie (or the betting exchange in this case) is just that, and - as in every war - there are battles lost and battles won; and if you can be disciplined enough to manage a betting bank, then I am certain you're going to have a lot of fun with this.

[Incidentally, if you don't have betting exchange account, why not?! You can sign up with betdaq from the ad on the right of this page, or with betfair at www.betfair.com]

Now I know I sound like a whining parent in the above, and for that I apologise. It's certainly not my intention to patronise, but I do want to be absolutely crystal clear in one thing, which I'll repeat for the last time:

Please use at least some of your trial period to paper trade and, only when you're happy with the service, consider investing.

This system has, over the four previous years, yielded an average monthly profit of 17.5 points.

If you use an incremental staking plan, you can improve this. But let's keep this simple with level stakes.

Enough already. At this stage, you will be in one of three states of mind:

1. You know you want to try it, and want to know where - in this case CLICK HERE

2. You know you don't want to try it, as it doesn't suit your style (fair enough)

3. You think you want to try it, but you have a question (or two) - in which case, click here (this will open up your email program and you can send your question over)

One final point to note is that you will be required to provide details to PayPal as a condition of subscription. For monthly or quarterly signups, you will not be billed for 28 days, so please make a note in your diary to ensure that you don't forget to cancel if you mean to. There will be no refunds, because I'm offering you a full month's free access. I hope you think that's fair. :o)

That's all for now - I'm off to lay some nags....

Matt

p.s. there's also a link to the (as yet unfinished) sales page below...

What On Earth Is Thanksgiving?!

I've often wondered, dear reader, what on Earth Thanksgiving is all about. You know, that strange holiday held in the States (and Canada, I believe) towards the end of year, where they eat turkey, but which isn't Christmas.

Well, my curiosity got the better of me today, Thanksgiving Day, and I went online in search of answers. And I found 'em. But just not a single accepted one. Rather, there's some controversy about the origins of Thanksgiving.

So, here is a brief and potted history of this peculiar holiday:

- Broadly accepted to be held in recognition / gratitude of harvest time goodies (though a little late, no?)
- Claimed by the Pilgrim Fathers (i.e. those off the Mayflower) as a religious holiday, from 1621 onwards
- However, earliest claim to the festival was in 1565 (September 8th, to be precise)
- Used to be held on 1st Thursday in November, now 4th Thursday (in USA)
- Held on 2nd Monday in October in Canada
- Americans are now in what they call 'the holiday season', so no work will be done between now and January (sounds good to me!)

So there you have it - Thanksgiving Day is a religious / secular festival / holiday introduced by English settlers / native Indians, and is held in October / November on the 2nd Monday / 1st Thursday / 4th Thursday.... I wish I hadn't bothered!

********

Onwards and downwards...

You may well have seen on Gavin's blog a post relating to the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase, where he points out that Air Force One is the clear trends pick. I'd just like to add that - in stark contrast to the confusing messages regarding Thanksgiving Day - I wholly concur with Gavin's synopsis, and make AFO a trends banker (if ever such a thing existed).

Of course, much ado gets in the way between paper theory and turf / fence / equine reality, but as six-and-a-half to one shots go, AFO is up there with the pick of them, in my view.

First fence faller anyone?!

********

The other big race at Newbury on Saturday is the Long Distance Hurdle, a Grade 2 with a veritable stayers' who's who on its role of alumni. Won thrice by Inglis Drever, and twice each by Baracouda and Deano's Beeno (each repeater doing it 'back to back') in the last decade.

The incredible Drever is up again, bidding for a fourth consecutive seasonal debut victory in this race. They said he was too old to win the Stayers Hurdle at the Festival in March as a 9yo, and doubtless they'll say the same again now. The 'couda also won as a 9yo, so don't fret unduly about that.

According to the stats, only three horses can win - Blazing Bailey, Drever, and Petitfour. Don't look any further. Moreover, although it's unlikely to make you rich, Inglis Drever will be very difficult to beat again.

********

Despite there genuinely being nothing to see, some people have already signed up for my laying service. To those I say, erm, thank you... and can you please now cancel your sub as you will be missing out when it goes live next week..!

A little more info for you... I will be charging geegeez readers and TTS subscribers (some of whom, incredibly (ahem!), don't read my blog) the princely sum of nought pounds and noughty-nought pence for at least the first four weeks.

And the reason for this is that I want people to follow a simple, but important, strategy during that time. I will elaborate further tomorrow so, for now, please DON'T sign up yet, and be prepared for some freebie pre-Christmas action :o)

********

Finally, its Thursday, so it's time for some Thursday Fun. I found this on another site the other day when I was erm researching, and found it quite amusing (if a tad crass). Enjoy. (Or not.)

I bet that's put the wind up a few people! ;o)

Matt

Wednesday Wamblings...

A strange day yesterday, dear reader, with more than a whiff of skulduggery in the air at Southwell.

First, there was the remarkable case of decent bumper horse, Shiwawa, making his all weather debut in a very moderate 1m4f maiden. Strongly backed all day (including by yours truly), the horse suddenly drifted from evens to 2/1 in the five minutes before the off.

Never going a beat off a sedentary gallop, the animal was pulled up five furlongs before the finish. The vet found the horse to be distressed.

Please can someone tell me why this horse ran?? It MUST have been clear by the way he went to post (i.e. in the immediate period prior to the racing, when he drifted like the proverbial barge) that he was not right.

According to the Sporting Life, there were no recorded bets on the winner. And yet Shiwawa was the subject of the following wagers: £2400-£2000 £600-£500 £900-£600 £700-£400.

Erm, how can this be?

I am not one for conspiracy theories in general, and I may be talking through my wallet here. But when a horse is beaten in a photo, or even is done a couple of lengths having found little, then fair enough.

In this race, there were three 100/1 shots, all of whom were still going ok at the point when Shiwawa was pulled up. That is NOT down to failing to act on the surface, or resenting the kickback, or anything other than the horse was knackered or nobbled or otherwise unfit to race.

Poor, poor show I say. Poor show indeed.

Another of my choices, Me Fein, demonstrated similar hobo tendencies, drifting friendlessly from 7/1 to 26/1 on betfair. Having noted that the owner is a certain Curley Leisure (as in Barney Curley, renowned crook / punter), my fate on this one was also sealed prior to the off.

My point in all this? It's just not on when a horse is not off. Put another way, unless a horse is trying he shouldn't be allowed to run. If a horse is ill or injured, he obviously shouldn't be allowed to run. When a horse has proven form over course and distance, like Me Fein did (a winner over a furlong less on his only previous run here), it is not ok for him to triple in price and finish tailed off.

No wonder people think the sport is crooked. It's because we still allow crooks to own horses. And it's because there is insufficient investigation of events such as Shiwawa yesterday.

Personally, I think the sport is at least 99% straight. That is to say that less than one horse in every hundred is deliberately 'not trying'. Again, personally, I think that is probably a permissable percentage of wrong-doing.

However, when cases as blatant as the two at Southwell yesterday manifest themselves, it is incumbent on the stewards and the wider authorities to be seen to act. By this, I don't mean a draconian punishment frenzy but, rather, people being asked to explain themselves a tad beyond the currently acceptable, "he didn't act on the surface" or whatever.

When I learn from the vet at the starting stalls why he allowed Shiwawa to run I will be happier that the sport is doing what it can to be transparent when things go awry.

Enough already.

********

Elsewhere yesterday, huge credit to Andrea Atzeni, a young man (note, not woman!) making a name for himself and one who looks worthy of following this winter. His ride on Kinigi was as canny as it was costly for me. I'd laid the fecking beast again and, for the second race running, she prevailed by a short head!

Kinigi is one of those animals that might not be terribly capable, but tries their heart out, and battles back when challenged. They're great horses to have on your side, but not so good for laying purposes. I'll not oppose her (lightly) a third time...

As for the boy Atzeni, I'll try to find a little more about him, and let you know. Very impressive ride yesterday. I might adopt him as my jock to follow this AW campaign.

Over the jumps, I had a little more luck, with Divali Princess winning - albeit at odds on. Andrew Turnell did indeed strike in the opening race at Lingfield, as suggested.

Alas for some TTS punters (though not for others, judged by the mailbag), the odds shows of 16/1 14/1 16/1 meant that traditionalists (me included) didn't back Scandal, whereas those using bots or betting in the morning before work, mostly did.

Whilst my each way 'lock', Rebeccas Choice, did what each way 'locks' do (and finished fourth, of course!), over at Sedgefield there was more cheer, with Stormy Beech gaining a hard earned and deserved 8/1 victory in the handicap chase.

Last word on yesterday goes to Chief Dan George. On his chasing debut, over a trip plenty short enough, he ran a very creditable race in third. He was outpaced when they turned in, and then stayed on again. I doubt he'll be as good over fences (or hurdles) as he was two years ago, but there will still be 3m chases to be won with this beastie, and he's destined to become a favourite in the North.

********

Nothing much to tempt me today. A couple of profile pointers for you though:

Manbow, 5/1 favourite in the Racing Post (but available around double those odds), has a shocking record in fields of ten or more. His form figures read 88PP8PPFPP7

I don't think I'll be too keen to back him win or place.... a lay today.

One more worthy of note is Black Hills. Winner of the race last year, won or placed 7 from 10 in Class 3 races, and form on right handed track with 10 or fewer runners: 3212211P (the P coming on ground far softer than he'd want).

It's a warm race, but he has a fair chance of doubling up.

********

Finally, a further reminder about next Monday. As some of you smart cookies will have worked out by the link below every post (!!), I will be launching a laying service from that date.

The service comes with three different levels, depending on your appetite for risk. And the qualifiers will be posted daily to a members' only website.

I'll be back with more details tomorrow. In the meantime, please refrain from signing up for now, as there's nothing to see / receive at this stage.

ttfn
Matt

Important News...

I bring important news today, dear reader, of something exciting happening from next week.

In fairness, it probably won't change your life irreversibly, in the way that... say... a sex change (or gender transformation, as I believe the correct term is) operation would.

And it won't be the answer to all your financial worries either (should you, like me, still have a mortgage to pay and a sackful of Christmas presents to buy).

It won't un-pickle your liver after the rotten excesses of the twelfth month (Gregorian calendar); it won't find you a gorgeous / handsome bride / groom; it won't even mow the lawn, or put the rubbish out.

Nope, I'm afraid to say it won't do any of those things. Because I'm not a necromancer, but rather I'm a racing stats fan, and a devout data analyst of all things equine.

The upshot of all this is that what I have for you just might improve the bottom line on your betting exchange account.

In fact, my research has revealed some impressive inroads made in the infernal struggle between good and evil (where good is represented by my money, and evil by those with the temerity to match my exchange wagers!).

I'll reveal more as the week goes on. For now, let's just say that I think you'll be interested in the content, and I'm very hopeful you'll consider it affordable at what is a challenging and uncertain time financially for all of us.

********

Today's racing is typical midweek fare - not too much to get excited about.

At Lingfield, the opener looks an interesting AW bumper, with TTS - in fine form at the moment, illustrated by a lovely 12/1 winner yesterday - represented by Bolanderi and Toulaman. Although the entire field is unexposed, normal improvement from the latter should see him mix it at the finish.

Andy Turnell, trainer of the former, has a very impressive record at the track (hence his inclusion in TTS), and the betting will be instructive for the chances of his runner (he also has an outsider who looks to have been brought along for the experience, but a cursory review of the odds board is recommended, just in case).

In the second race, Divali Princess looks a penalty kick, albeit one in a quarter-final shootout involving England. She really ought to win.

They're a motley lot in the beginners' chase and, although Charlie Mann's stable is in white hot form, even money about a horse who has finished second or third six times over obstacles, and won only once, is not a punt I'm interested in.

In the 2.00, it is each way nirvana: a 1-2 favourite and the 'dead eight' meaning three places. Should this remain the case at post time, I can't see McCoy being out of the frame on Rebeccas Choice and, giving the encouragement the horse will get from the saddle, he could just overturn the jolly.

David Pipe's Thirtythreeblack steps up markedly in trip today and, if he's ever going to do anything as a racehorse, he needs to show improvement for the extra distance this afternoon. Pipe doesn't have too many 33/1 runners for David Johnson, so keep an eye out for this one. [It might well be his last start in the Johnson silks!]

In the handicap hurdle at 3.00, I can't for the life of me see why Osolomio is a 14/1 chance. He's got top weight because he has the best form; he has a decent 50% (2 from 4) strike rate over hurdles, finishing second on another occasion; and this is hardly the best race ever staged at the track. Surely, if the horse came from the King, O'Neill or Nicholls stable, he would be a 7/2 shot, despite it being his seasonal debut today. Each way a pleasure.

Over at Sedgefield, probably the best horse running today makes his fencing debut. Chief Dan George, such a great stick for the Moffatt yard two seasons ago, has to demonstrate rekindled enthusiasm for the game after a lacklustre season last year.

I have to concede a soft spot for this horse, who made it into all my ten to follow lists last year (and scored me no points!), and I hope he wins today. I won't be betting him so to do though.

In the 2.20, Stormy Beech, a battle hardened (wearied?) four time winner round Sedgefield, has a great chance of making the frame, and looks a sporting each way ticket.

Meanwhile, over at Southwell, Julia's doughty plodder (no, not Night Orbit - her other doughty plodder), Bavarica will be attempting to win for the fourth time, and the second time for her son, Ross.

Much more likely is that Bavarica will cruise into the race, find nothing, and finish second or third, as he has done on an incredible FOURTEEN of his 29 AW starts (two wins as well means he's better than even money for a place!). Go Ross!

I'm against Kinigi in the 1.10, who had all over Jamie Spencer's brilliance and power shoved up him when he got up on the line last time (I'd laid him, natch!). Whilst Andrea Atzeni is a promising lad, he doesn't have the push and shove of a Spencer in full tilt.

In the 2.40, Shiwawa is a very interesting runner from Alan Swinbank's crack bumper squad, this time having a pop at a perfectly winnable maiden. Barring major improvement from Tony Martin's Irish raider (curious entry this, to say the least), Shiwawa looks way too good on what he's done on turf. A smooth transition to the poly should suffice.

Me Fein will love the return to AW (3 from 5 on the surface, wins in fields of 12, 13 and 16; versus beating just four of 83 (!) opponents in turf races). He's the one to be interested in what is ostensibly an open affair.

Finally, I'll be against last time out winner Efisio Princess who, despite the best of the weights, may not get an ideal run through from the 1 box.

Good luck on whatever your fancies are today, and look out for further announcements regarding next Monday.

Ciao pronto.

Matt

Pooper Scooper / Becher Feature

Squibs come in all shapes and sizes, dear reader, but few in recent memory have been damper than that which descended over our eternally optimistic Scoop 6 ticket yesterday.

With a perm that would have made the great Carlos Valderrama jealous, we were ready for action.

And, though we sailed through the first leg, with both the winner and the second, the fact that the favourite won was no help to those chasing a bumper pot. Or those of us with five alternatives to the jolly...

No matter, for we at least cleared the first hurdle.

Next up, the fillies handicap. None of us: not Gary nor Gavin nor I liked the look of this race. And so it proved our undoing. Simple fact is that fillies on the flat are soooo difficult to predict and, whilst many will point to the 5/1 SP of the winner as a reason why we should have nominated her, we were trying to secure a balance of likeliest fancied runners and possible outsiders to catch the pot.

But it was not to be. Third was the best we could manage here, beaten half a length and a neck. So, the dream diminished for now, we continued to chase for the place part of the wager.

Next up a 16 runner handicap chase, and our four against the field, didn't include the winner Possol. We had fourth and fifth, Osako d'Airy and Gold Medallist, and proceeded towards Placeville on the basis of the former, albeit that he was the 3/1 favourite.

Back then to Lingfield for more flat racing, and the Churchill Stakes. An excellent race was taken in fine style by Yahrab. Again, we progressed with second placed Baharah, Gavin's fancy. (My fancy, Philatelist, is still running...)

Second again in the Huntingdon handicap hurdle (and fourth to boot) meant that the place element carried us all the way to the final contest, a sprint back at Leafy. Alas, our place aspirations were left paddling toward the back of this decent field, as Ceremonial Jade and Prohobit trailed in no better than 6th and 7th.

So... a great idea... no luck... disappointing.

Many thanks to those hundreds of you who were in the syndicate - we're obviously all disappointed that we didn't get closer, and I think there's universal acceptance that we were attempting a pretty tough task.

For the record, eight tickets collected £473,000 each, including two belonging to Harry Findlay, Denman's owner and big punter. He probably shelled out between £100,000 and £200,000, so fair play to him.

********

Today is Aintree, and the feature race is the Becher Chase (that rhymes!).

Won three times in the last four years by Paul Nicholls, we obviously need to take note of his entries. Last year's winner, Mr Appointment, is joined by top weight Gungadu for the omnipotent Ditcheat stable.

8 out of 10 of the last ten winners were aged between 8 and 10, so let's lose Noir Et Vert, Philson Run and Ivoire de Beaulieu.

Winners have come from all over the weights, all over the ratings and from 9/4 to 33/1 (twice, as well as a 25/1). So, I guess what I'm driving at is that this is not an easy race to predict using trends.

Prominent racers have an excellent record in all events over the National fences, and obviously safe jumpers should be favoured. This again brings in both of the Nicholls pair, and it may be foolish to oppose them.

So I won't. I'll add in Always Waining for Peter Bowen, the horse having won a hurdle here, and the trainer having an excellent record at the track; and my quartet will be completed by A New Story, from Michael Hourigan's Irish yard.

It's a fascinating race, and - bearing in mind that three of the last ten winners have gone on to lift the Grand National itself - it is worth taking notes for Aintree in April (though possibly not next April!)

Good luck,

Matt

Everything Crossed...

Today is the day, dear reader, and we're positively wet with cautious excitement. It could all go horribly wrong very early, such is the competitiveness of every event in the Scoop 6 today.

But we have loaded our perm, seriously burnt the oil on the form study front, and come up with what we believe to be a wager with a fighting chance of getting close.

Full details of the bet are on the Nag3 blog, and everything is crossed.

Nothing else to say except, if you're in, cheer them home. And if you're not in, still cheer them home!!!!

Happy Saturday,
Matt

Scooper Dooper!

Rarely has the world of racing stopped, dear reader, for such a puntfest as the one that will ensue tomorrow. The clamour surrounding the tote pool for the Scoop6 is reaching national news-worthy status and is in serious danger of impacting 'I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here's monopoly on the front pages of the tabloids.

Myself and Gavin, at Geegeez and Nag3 respectively, are playing our part, by offering you the chance to get involved in our syndicate. The chance to win a stack of cash for a small investment, and to have access to a much greater number of selections than would otherwise have been possible, has clearly caught your imagination: the syndicate pool currently stands around the four thousand pound mark!

This has actually presented us with some logistical challenges, such as how do we withdraw what will likely be near five grand from the bank and get it to a bookie?!

You can get involved by making a direct PayPal payment, in a multiple of £10 (nothing less please), to Gavin's PayPal account - gavinpriestley@aol.com

There are a number of stipulations - see the post below this one - but the two things I'd bring to your attention are: 1. payment by 9am tomorrow or you're not in, and 2. you MUST pay the PayPal fee (only a few pence).

Should we be lucky enough to cop the pot, you will win a percentage of the prize money directly equal to your percentage of the syndicate fund. That is, if our syndicate fund is £5,000 and you put in £50, you would win 1% of winnings. 1% of £5 million is a tidy £50,000...! (For £10, you'd still stand to collect £10,000!)

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Now, before I go on, a quick reality check. The extreme (EXTREME) likelihood is that we will NOT win the Scoop6. The races that have been chosen are fiendishly difficult: four preposterously competitive all weather races (Lingfield 2.10, 2.40, 3.20 and 3.50), a 16 runner handicap chase, and a 15 runner handicap hurdle.

It is perfectly plausible that we will go out on the first leg (eleven runners, with a 4/1 favourite and the outsider at just 14/1!), though of course we will hope to go a good bit 'deeper' than that.

Also, bear in mind, that the Scoop6 is both a jackpot and a placepot on the nominated races. This means that, as long as we find something in the frame, we have the chance to get some cash from the place fund. Of course, this is unlikely to be life changing, but it may well return stakes as a minimum - assuming we can get one placed in each race: a feat in itself!

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Enough of this Scoopy Loopiness. If you want to be involved, you can by making a PayPal payment to Gavin's account - gavinpriestley@aol.com - today ideally (so we know what perm to choose).

I will be working fervently on the picks this afternoon, so please understand that we are trying our best. Should we bow to what may be inevitable early bath crash and burn failure, I hope that you will show empathy for what is perhaps the ultimate punting challenge.

BRING IT ON!!!!

Matt

Fancy Joining our Scoop 6 Syndicate? Details Inside...

Scoop6mania, dear reader, is spreading fast, and will be a wild unchecked contagion by Saturday. My good mate Gavin at Nag3 is running a syndicate for the weekend. You can get involved for as little as a tenner, should you so wish, and will win a percentage of the total winnings equivalent to your percentage of the investment pool.

For example, if the cash we pull together is £1,000, and you put in £20, you will get 20 / 1000 = 2% of any winnings. 2% of £5 million is a hundred grand. Not likely, but possible.

Enough from me - details below are copied from the Nag3 blog. Simply go to PayPal and make your contribution to the Great Nag3 / Geegeez Scoop 6 Syndicate.

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So I think if anyone is interested in being a part of any Nag3 Scoop 6 syndicate then the following would have to apply.......

- I will be doing my own perm and laying out about £400-£500. This could form the basis of any final syndicated Scoop 6 bet with any additional contributions allowing this perm to be expanded to include further selections in each race.

- The Nag3/Geegeez combined brains, that's myself, Matt and my brother Gary, will pick the selections and I will endeavour to post the intended perms by 9pm Friday evening.

- This post will include a number of different amounts for perms and depending on the number of subscribers we get we'll use the appropriate perm. I'll also include reserves in case we have any non-runners.

- If you would like to be a part of the syndicate simply send your contribution to my Paypal account any time before 9am Saturday 22nd November. The minimum amount is £10 but can be any amount greater in multiples of £10. You MUST pay any Paypal fees.

- My Paypal account is gavinpriestley@aol.com

- You will be paid the % of the winnings your contribution accounts for.
Example: If the perm costs £1000 and you pay £10 then you will get 1% of any winnings (1% of £5m is £50,000)

VERY IMPORTANT PLEASE READ

- Minimum contribution will have to be £10. The Paypal fees MUST be paid by you.

- All contributions must be made by 9am on Saturday to allow me time to place the bet.

- An official Paypal notification email confirming that your payment has cleared before 9am Saturday 22nd November will be needed to claim any winnings. Any monies sent after 9am will be refunded.

- No Paypal E-Cheque payments please. The money must have cleared my account by the deadline to entitle you to a share.

- I'm sorry but Paypal is the only payment method I will accept.

- I will post the Final Perm on this Blog by the 1st race and all contributors will be notified by email.

- Any winnings will be paid as soon as the Tote make their payouts.

If you think this could be of interest to you please post a comment below (simply click on the highlighted word comments next to the Facebook link) or email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

Obviously, by registering an interest you are under no obligation to participate.

That's it for today. I'll be in for £200, Gavin will be in for at least double that, so we'll have a few lines to play with!

Matt

Fishing For SumFin at Folkestone and Fakenham...

It's low grade fare today, dear reader, but for every race there must be a winner, and 4/1 in a seller pays no less than 4/1 in a Grade 1, so let's see what we can establish about today's punting action.

Starting at Folkestone, and I am seriously tempted to take on Medermit in the 1.10 race. He looked to my eye to have a hard race last time and, though consistent in his placed efforts, one win from four runs is not enough for me to dash to snaffle odds on.

Against him are a few likely types, not least of which is my ten to follow horse, Ballygowan Star. (Very) tenderly handled on his debut for Jim Best t'other day, I'm surprised the stewards didn't require further information. Here's what the Racing Post made of it:

"The horse that really caught the eye was Ballygowan Star, who never looked to be asked a serious question on his hurdling debut. He is surely much better than he showed in this, although it was reported after the race that he lost his action behind and he was also checked over by the vet."

Hmm.... Besty is known for his handicap hurdlers, and I suspect this one may be running for a low mark. Be sure though, this beast will win before the season's out and, depending on the mark he's bestowed, may notch a small sequence. But I don't think he'll be 'expected' today.

Jonjo's Quazy de Joie, at 2nd favourite, also looks opposable to me in the race, so I'm going to take two each way against the top two.

My choices are Uncle Eli and TTS horse, Massini Moon. The former, possibly named after the TrainerTrackStats forerunner, Uncle Eli's Magic System (anybody remember that - it was bloody brilliant and I swore by it as a fledgling punter!), ran well in a Graded hurdle last season and probably needed his debut this term (opened 8/1, sent off 12/1). He'll strip fitter today, and ought to place.

Massini Moon is by promising jumps sire, Dr Massini, and - placed twice in bumpers on sharp tracks - might make more of a mark in the mud here. (Did you like that? Massini Moon might make more of a mark in the mud... ahem)

The rest of the card is tricky at best, so it's over to Fakenham to see what's cooking...

In the 1.30, my mate David's in the syndicate behind Silvergino (they also had the mighty Kadarann a few seasons back). He tells me that the horse is a trier, but just not that able. He didn't sound especially confident, but then he was the same last time and the bloody thing won!)

At 2.00, Starluck is a worthy favourite on form in the book. In the same ownership as Grand National winner, Rough Quest (I was at Aintree in the Martell hospitality suite the day he won, and I'd backed him - fantastic memory!), he might well go in again.

But I'm going to side, each way again, with James Fanshawe's debutante, Long Distance. 'The Scholarly One', as I respectfully refer to James, is one of the savviest trainers around and he has only a few runners over barriers. His record here over the last five seasons is a preposterous 80% (albeit on only five runners, but four winners is a tidy return), and you can expect this one to know his task today.

To complete an unlikely each way patent, I'm away to Southwell, where there is quite a strong profile horse in the 2.50. Dado Mush is top weight, and has a 50% win rate from ten starts here. Kirsty Milczarek is not only a very able jockey, but she also gets on brilliantly with the Mush.

Kirsty was not up last time, when this one probably needed the run after a break (drifted from 16's out to 25's), and in the right class, off the right mark, he might run close.

So there you have it: a mediocre card, but three with live each way chances to get us to the 'Pay' window.

Good luck if you're playing today.

Matt

A Weekend of 'Poissons Rouges'?

Normally a reliable barometer of Festival prospects, dear reader, this past weekend's Cheltenham Open meeting will, I suspect, be no more than a provider of pesky red herrings with regards to events at the same place next March.

The ground contrived against many of the runners, and with sense and sensibility aforethought, most jocks ambled around the track at a pace somewhere between slow and stop.

There were many visually impressive performances but, if the clock is anything to go by, only Imperial Commander's imperious display in the Paddy Power merited adjectives of swash and buckle. Indeed, the Commander clearly got in off a light weight here and continued the run of former Cheltenham winners to score in this race. It's pretty much a prerequisite for a PP Gold Cup winner these days.

Elsewhere, the apparently silken smooth processions enjoyed by Nicky Henderson's progressive 'town' hurdlers, Andytown and Punchestowns, were easier on the eye than the watch, and they are likely to be overly penalised for these runs. Assuming both are upped in grade and sent off at relatively short prices next time, I'd be taking them on, for all their optical illusory superiority.

The ground did for many a fancied runner, and my trends selections sunk without trace in the quag. Although officially soft, most commentators agree that this was a heavy ground meeting, and may offer more pointers to such as the Welsh National meeting rather than the Cheltenham Festival.

Talking of which, about my only winner of the weekend, Joe Lively, is to be directed towards Chepstow over the Christmas holiday and, weights dependent, he must have a fine chance. He jumps and stays and won't mind the ground however it manifests itself. He could well end up at the Festival in one of the chase handicaps and may go close (his Cheltenham record now reads 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from just six starts - the other run a very respectable 6th in this year's Sun Alliance Chase).

Elsewhere, and perhaps the ridiculous hype surrounding inferior Champion Hurdle 'prospect', Jered, will now dissipate - at least temporarily - after octogenarian celebrity Hardy Eustace proved that he is still hardly useless by winning the Grade 1 Maplewood Hurdle.

Sizing Europe came there cruising - again - but found nought. Generous viewers will tell you that he blew up on his seasonal bow, and I hope that they're right. However, he looked to stop in a stride, just like in the Champion in March, and I want to see him do it all the way to the line before I invest in this one again.

Despite hitting a wall, Europe still had too much for Jered, who wants it on the soft side and doesn't have too many excuses here, aside from just not being good enough. The Racing Post commentary says this was a tactical race, which is only true up to a point, as the time was far better than any other hurdle race at the two day meeting, furlong for furlong (as one might expect).

Regular readers will know of my opposition to Jered and, is always the case when one takes a strong stance on a fancied runner, I stand to be ridiculed on March 17th. However, I stand by my previous comments that Jered has no more chance of winning the Champion Hurdle than... well than a horse two stone out of the handicap proper.

Today is a Monday and Mondays are almost always 'no bet' days for me. The class of racing rarely justifies wallet opening and it's good discipline to have a least one 'no bet' day in your week.

That said, Norman The Great should give reckless each way punters a run for small money, in the 3.50 at Leicester; and the Novice Chase at 2.20 looks worth a watch if not a punt, as it features three promising novices in Shatabdi, Kalahari King and Crocodiles Rock. No bet however remains the call for yours truly.

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Onto other matters, and I've received numerous emails about the trading system I mentioned so favourably last week. There were a couple of questions that featured highly in those emails, so let me address them here:

Q. The LS Trader website has only been registered since 21st October. How can this service be legitimate?

A. Although the LSTrader.com site has indeed only been in existence a short time, the service was previously hosted on a site call IGTrader.com. In order to avoid problems with IG Index, it was considered prudent to move it to a less controversial web address. Moreover, the service itself has been running for over a year as an email only private subscription, and I have copies of most of the weekly emails sent out, which testify both to the accuracy and the quality of the service.

Q. Matt, it's not your style to recommend a product without thoroughly testing it. What's different here?

A. You're absolutely right. And, to be honest, I was a little nervous in going ahead. But I'd based my recommendation on seeing a lot of previous content from the service provider, Robert Stewart, and after asking and having answered numerous questions.

Q. Will you be trialling the service on the blog?

A. Yes, sort of. It's not the kind of service that has daily advice. Rather, you will receive two clear emails on a Sunday telling you exactly what trades to place, and how much of your bank to engage. I mentioned last week that the trades were pork bellies (!) and 5 Year T Note, and both of these positions are currently nicely in profit.

This week's advices are shorting (selling, or betting on a downturn) natural gas and platinum.

Q. How long will you be tracking the service for?

A. I have added this to my own portfolio and will therefore be tracking it ongoing. From a public perspective, I obviously have an obligation to protect the information, so can only continue to share the trades for the next few weeks (i.e. to end November).

Q. What if I have further questions?

A. There is an FAQ section on the website that may answer some of your questions. You can see this at www.LSTrader.com. If your question is not answered there, do please email Robert with any questions you might have. You can get him at info AT LSTrader.com (where AT is replaced by @ to create a traditional email address - presented this way to avoid spam). Alternatively, there is a 'Contact Us' link at the bottom of the web page.

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That's all for today - Happy Monday!

Matt

Cheltenham Weekend Trends

After a bizarre and hugely eventful first day of the Open meeting, dear reader, there is much to look back on and much to look forward to...

Today's curious goings on started when Hoopy's jockey, having made a typical amateur rider blunder and dropped his whip, nicked another 'persuader' from an ailing competitor as he passed him. He gave Hoopy a couple of cracks and the Irish raider bolted forwards on an unstoppable run that took him to the front on the run-in. There's no doubt he wouldn't have won without the stick, and the rule is grey on such matters.

Funnily enough, I'd watched a similar manoevre unfold in the Velka Pardubicka, a recording of which was shown on attheraces earlier in the week. Bizarre.

But it was to get curiouser, said Alice. I'd backed Garde Champetre with confidence in the Cross Country Chase, and even though the horse finished second, I was certain that I'd get paid out as the 'winner' had taken the wrong course, skirting inside some of the marker bushes.

But, would you credit it, winning jock, Davy Russell, had discussed with stewards beforehand and studied the course. It was a legit move that nicked him half a dozen lengths. He won by a couple, so it must have been material. Fair play to him for his enterprise, though it cost me a few quid!

Then, final insult to injury, I got stuck into Herecomesthetruth in the last. He was upsides the winner coming to the last, then inexplicably decided to run out! In fairness, the winner may well have beaten the 'truth anyway, but I'd have liked the chance to see that.

Just another day on Cleeve Hill...!

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Tomorrow and Sunday sees more great action at the home of jumps racing. I've looked at the Paddy Power already, and now let's take a peek at some of the supporting races.

The opening juvenile novices' hurdle will throw up the favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, so if you fancy one to win the latter race, now might be the time to wager.

The last two winners were Katchit and Franchoek, so it invariably throws up a good'un.

Tomorrow, I like the look of Giorgio Quercus, whose form in France entitles him to win this. Expect Saticon to improve hugely from what he's achieved thus far, and he may take this. His brilliant trainer, Alan King, has won the last two runnings and clearly brings his top gun here each season.

Most of these will demonstrate more than they have done to date, so it may be a race to watch and make notes on, rather than bet on.

The novice chase is a hard race to call too. Won last season by Albertas Run, I reckon McCoy's mount Gone To Lunch may show improved form to come home in front. He lost little in defeat to Exmoor Ranger, a horse I like, on seasonal debut and last time out was just worn down by The Tother One. I don't think Nicholls has his toppest notch chaser in here, so AP may well bring home the bacon for Lunch.

Halcon Genelardais has it to do in the Grade 3 handicap chase, and the National winner, Comply or Die will likely need the run (and has obvious bigger targets in April next year). So let's look lower down the weights: Joe Lively has a decent mark and, with a warm up run under his belt, might be the one. It's pretty competitive though.

In the Listed handicap hurdle, its interesting to note that only one of the last ten winners was sent off bigger than 9/1, and even Maid Equal was only a 12/1 shot. Only one winner has carried more than 10-10, so look to the low end of the weights.

I reckon this might be one for the Pipe stable, courtesy of The Sliotar. No match for Ocean du Moulins over fences on debut, that will have awoken his interest for the season, and he was pretty progressive last season in the hurdling sphere.

Good luck if you're playing in the 3.25. 20 novices going hammer and tongs is not my idea of a punting proposition, but if you must play, my token selection is Hernando Royal for Dr Newland. The Good Doctor does well with his tiny string, and he loves a Cheltenham winner.

Also make careful note of Pipe (dad won four of the six runnings of this race) / McCoy (ridden three of the six winners for two different trainers), who team up with Qanta de Thaix. Ostensibly this one has a lot to find, but these are the shrewdest and most capable of connections, so mammoth improvement is far from out of the question (though it should be accompanied by a trip to the stewards room to explain, in my opinion!).

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On Sunday, we have the Greatwood Hurdle amongst other competitive races.

Trends for the Greatwood are:

9 from last 11 winners were 5 or 6 years old. Five who can't win statistically, including my form selection, Ashkazar.

8 of last 10 winners had been placed 1st or 2nd last time out.

Remarkably this leaves us with three!

They are Silver Jaro, Mudslinger and King's Revenge.

The Jaro was a huge shout for us at the Festival when he popped up for our trends at 50/1, and I'm loathe to leave him now. King's Revenge features in my ten to follow, so I'm hoping he's there or thereabouts, as I reckon he will be. The Mudslinger ought not to be good enough on the evidence to date.

Chuck in the fact that 6 of 10 winners lugged a pound shy of 11 stone or more to victory, and you're looking for a horse with a touch of class. Silver Jaro is the only one of the trio that fits this somewhat tenuous bill.

He has course form and comes from a progressive stable. He's the one for me. Look out for Ashkazar as well though. Top weight for the 4yo, but he might end up being a Champion Hurdle contender...

Good luck as always with your weekend wagers.

Matt

Electricity Preposterosity!

Just back from a quick trip to Bratislava in Slovakia, dear reader, (colder than here, but mercifully drier). The reason for my trip was mainly business: I have a little apartment there and was renegotiating the contract with my tenant.

My tenant, Petr, a stout Czech chap who works in financial services (lucky him!) agreed to the contractual revisions but mentioned that he thought there might be a problem with the electricity.

Surprised, I told him that I'd go and talk to the lecky company and see if there was indeed an issue. When I got there, I sat down, and a kind looking youth punched in my account details to his computer.

The screen that greeted us both brought incredulity to yer man, and even I knew something was amiss. You see, he'd requested a statement of my payments and, to the left of each line of data, there was a traffic light - green for paid, red for unpaid. I had fully two screens of red lights!

It transpired that the standing order had been set up with a limit below the amount the electric guys were trying to debit, and so they'd been refused. Every month. Since March 2006!!!

Apparently, my account had been closed but - bizarrely - the apartment still had light and heat. I can't see ManWeb or Swalec allowing such defaults!

I explained (as best I could) that it was all a misunderstanding and, a large cash payment later, all was resolved.

In those two and a half years, I've never once received any form of communication from the company regarding the situation. Bless them, they really are still learning about business...!

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In case you thought the tipping game was easy, a lesson from today's City AM (a free paper in London focused on business issues).

It transpires that a survey by DigitalLook.com has uncovered an alarming statistic. If you'd followed brokers' "strong buy" recommendations over the last twelve months, you'd have lost 44.9% of your investment.

Perversely, if you'd bought brokers' "strong sell" choices, you'd have only lost 35.9% of your initial outlay. Compare this to the market performance overall - down 37.8% - and you can see that the brokers tips to sell actually outperformed the market. Pretty shocking boys - time to sort yourselves out.

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Luckily for us, TTS doesn't suffer from stock market turbulence, and is plodding along merrily through the mud, a nice 50 points up on the season to date. A frustrating day today, with three runners and three runners up positions (at 4/6, 13/2 and 7/1).

You can still sign up for TTS here if you'd like your investments to be equine, and to beat the market.

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It's the first big race of the season on Saturday, the Paddy Power Gold Cup. And the annual Martin Pipe benefit may not be so easily solved now that Junior is running the Pipe show.

His old man won the race a ridiculous six times in the last ten years. In two attempts so far, his boy has made the frame but not hit the mark yet.

The trends are pretty solid for the race, as follows:

- Winning Cheltenham form is key. 9 of the last 10, and all bar two since 1990, had won here already. It's good night to Silverburn, the ante post favourite, at the first fence.

- The race is a young man's game, with lightly raced horses (whose true handicap mark has yet to manifest itself) taking pre-eminence. Anything older than 9 quite simply has no chance. If you liked Ashley Brook or Mister McGoldrick, change your mind.

- 6/10 were seasonal debutantes and the other four had just one run prior to the race. This does for Ouzbeck and Piraya near the top of the market, both of whom have had two or more runs this season.

- Aside from Celestial Gold in 2004 and The Outback Way back in 1999, all other winners lugged at least 10-13 to victory. It's going to be tough in the ground tomorrow, but I think we'll stick with the stat. Scratch anything from Moon Over Miami down in the weights. We've now got just a couple left in.

- No Irish winner since 1980. I like Sky's The Limit but I don't feel this will be his day.

This leaves Don't Push It. The market has also been a powerful indicator in recent seasons, with 7 from the last ten winners starting in the first three in the betting. Don't Push It may go off only 4th favourite, but he has course form, McCoy on his back, and a touch of class. It will be no shock if he comes home in front.

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Finally, as Thursday Fun this week, perhaps you'll enjoy me in a rare tongue-tied moment, trying to put together a spot of video for the Great Horse Racing Giveaway (which is now closed - thanks for reading this if you found my blog as a result of that offer!).

I didn't actually go with the offer in the video in the end, as I'm still trialling this myself, but it makes me whince with excruciating self-consciousness when I watch this desperate recording. Anchor men and women the world over, you have my respect!




Toodlepip!
Matt

Last Orders At The F.r.e.e Bar

You may not have heard, dear reader, but there's all sorts of wailing and gnashing of teeth down Newport way. The reason for this vitriol and venting of spleen? Why, a licensed publican has had the temerity to offer student customers a £5 drinking night.

Local opposition includes Melanie Perry, director of booze abuse support group Prism who, in an unprecendentedly poorly thought out statement said, "The manager of Escapade is clearly promoting excessive drinking through this practice.

"There may not have been any trouble last week but that's not to say that there won't be trouble in the future.

"I would urge people in the locality to make objections to this so that his licence can be reconsidered and if necessary revoked."

The manager is 'clearly' promoting excessive drinking? I don't know about you, but I didn't need any promotion to drink to excess during my student days, and look how I turned out...!

There was no trouble at the event, despite 600 revellers having a good old drink and dance. This compares immensely favourably to pretty much any bar in any town up and down the country.

I would urge locals to object. Erm, if the locals wanted to object, presumably they would.

As for revoking the savvy landlord's license, that is just spiteful. This woman wants to stop a man from making a living because she doesn't agree with his approach. Now there's an epitome of tolerance, don't you think?

In fact, the landlord - doubtless protecting his own bottom line as well as the livers of his clientele - introduced an excellent proviso on his £5 offer: in order to get a drink, you had to present an empty bottle / glass. So you could actually only have one drink on the go at a time. Again, harking back to my student days, they were normally lined up for me, and there was far more on the table than my belly could accommodate.

And finally on this subject, the police generally love events like this. Because if you were offered beers all night for a fiver, why the hell would you go anywhere else?! The Bill know that they have a short period around closing time where they need to manage those more exuberant young things, and they know exactly where they'll be.

I'm afraid that this sort of kneejerk bluster is increasingly endemic in our fine nations, and I for one am fed up with being told what I can and can't do. In order to drink you need to be 18. If we don't consider our 18 year olds intelligent enough to judge when they're full, then we should raise the age of drinking laws.

Oh, sorry, I had a point to all this... my point is that special offers are great, and the people who take big chances by giving stuff away, or all but giving stuff away, are to be applauded.

Of course, these offers are always timebound, otherwise the businesses would go skint. So it is then that the Great Horse Racing Giveaway, which opened its doors last Monday, will shut them tight this coming Wednesday.

So, while its not quite 'time at the bar', it's definitely 'Last Orders'. If you've not availed yourself of the free stuff, I suggest you tootle along to http://www.horseracing-giveaway.com/022.htm and see what the commotion is about.

If you have, you've no doubt been a victim of 'excessive freebies'. Should we consider revoking the license of the bloke whose idea it was to set this up? Of course not!

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Enough of my Monday moaning, and on with the show.

The flat turf season finally drew stumps at a soggy Donny on Saturday, and I'm not that sorry to see the back of it. It's been a long old hike since late March and winner finding has been tough.

I really do find the jumps more appealing, and am certain that we'll get more decent winners over the winter than we've had over the summer.

In my opinion, the trends are much stronger over the jumps than on the level, and horses have more pronounced running preferences in the more extreme tests that jump racing provides. No race encapsulates this more than the Grand National, and I will be confident of finding the winner again next year, using a trends based approach.

As the winter wears on, I'll also bring you stats based views on most of the major races here on the blog, and I am very hopeful that we'll come out in front come April time.

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There's nothing to catch my eye today, unsurprisingly. Monday racing is usually atrocious and today is no exception. There is one decent graduation chase at Carlisle but, that aside, it's dog food fare.

One horse worthy of note for all you ante post or Ten To Follow players is Aran Concerto. He went off favourite for the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle in 2007, and crocked himself in finishing 5th.

On his first start back, at Navan yesterday, he jumped his (admittedly weak) rivals ragged and his campaign will be tilted towards a shot at the Sun Alliance Chase. If he can improve his jumping, he'll have a decent squeak, and 16/1 may not be too shabby a price if you like your wagers early and with an abundance of risk.

ttfn

Matt

Thursday Fun

Short post this evening, dear reader, to share some despatches.

Firstly, I have finally uploaded my photos from the Breeders Cup trip and you can see them here.

Should you be interested in the rest of my trip, including visits to awesome Sedona and the Grand Canyon, you can see those pictures here.

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Photos aside, and in the spirit of the freebies that are being offered all over the place (including here!), Dave from the Alternative Punters' Syndicate is offering a one month free trial for new customers. Not only that, but he tells me they had a 33/1 winner, Lucky Dance, on Saturday (advised to customers at 50/1 and available at twice those odds on betfair!).

If you'd like to try the service free for a full month, you can do so by clicking the link on the right hand side (above the betdaq ad). It's free, they have big priced winners and, erm, what are you waiting for?!

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Just time for some Thursday Fun before dinner... and this may not be to everybody's tastes, but it didn't appeal to the baser element of my own sense of humour....



More tomorrow...

Matt

Geegeez Ten To Follow For The Jumps Season

It's that time of the year, dear reader, when the world and his wife (and his sister, and her aunt, and her dustman) try to pick ten horses to win a million quid. Yes, it's the Tote Ten To Follow, and entries close next week for that.

However, I'm much more interested in backing winners than entering a lottery like that, so I'm going to pick ten horses that I reckon will leave us in front at season end.

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First up though, I'd like to offer a very warm welcome to new readers, who have signed up as part of the great horse racing giveaway offer. You're very welcome aboard, and I hope that in the coming days, weeks and months, you'll find a few snippets of value as well as more than a winner or two.

And, of course, to those who have been with me a while longer, you are as cordially welcome as ever too.

For the benefit of new readers, allow me to spend a couple of lines explaining the drill:

- You will receive fairly regular emails from me advising that I've posted to this 'ere blog, on matters equine or otherwise sporting.
- You will also receive email telling you that Gavin has posted to Geegeez' sister blog, NagNagNag.
- You will not receive any other email from us. Ever.
- If the subject of a post is of no interest to you, feel free to ignore it. I'll not be offended. ;o)
- Er, that's it.

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OK, enough of the formalities and on to the action.

The Tote Ten To Follow is a tricky competition where a number of tactics need to be employed. It's a bit too competitive for me, especially when I have the chance to get paid out on every horse I back that wins, and not just if my combined total beats about 700,000 other people!

So eyes down, look in, for Geegeez' Ten To Follow:

1. Katchit

Surprisingly beaten on debut, Alan King's hurdling superstar will clearly be aimed at the Champion Hurdle. He loves Cheltenham and has twice won at the Festival. He is entered on Saturday at Wincanton.

2. Sizing Europe

The way this horse traveled in his races last year marked him down as a serious contender for the top hurdle crown. Alas, he seemed to go wrong in the big race in March. He'll likely mop up a few decent races in Ireland en route to the West Country. He's entered in the Morgiana on 16th November, as are all the main Irish protagonists and, if he runs, he'll take some stopping.

(It should also put a line through Jered as a serious Champion Hurdle contender if they both start. Jered's odds are quite simply preposterous based on what he's achieved so far. If you want 6/1 about a horse that needs to improve two stone to get competitive, even before young hurdlers like Sizing, Katchit and Osana have improved themselves, then stop off at Ladbrokes on the way to the funny farm. Not for me...)

3. Alberta's Run

Winner of both the Reynoldstown at Ascot and the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham, Albertas Run is clear best of last season's crop of staying chasers and, with Denman sidelined until February (and possibly a doubtful runner), and Kauto unconvincing to this spectator (he beat a tree in Ireland the other day), the race is wide open.

Add to that the fact that Neptune Collonges needs a flatter track (doesn't really stay) and Tidal Bay will be aimed at the Champion Chase, and I reckon Albertas Run is a very solid each way ante post option for the Gold Cup.

I've backed him at something approaching 50/1 (see screenshot) and, while he needs to improve his jumping, he is guaranteed to stay and will be trained for the race. 28 on betfair still looks reasonable.

Forget his run at Aintree - the track was too sharp and the trip was way too sharp. He'll be ready for the Hennessey at the end of the month.

4. Tidal Bay

A machine. Ten wins and five second place finishes from 15 starts is a record that very few animals can boast. Strolled to imperious victory in the Arkle last year, and followed up at Aintree, before cruising home on his seasonal debut in the race that Albertas Run finished fourth.

TB will presumably be aimed at the Champion Chase and the question is whether he will be kept clear of Paul Nicholl's brilliantly precocious Master Minded prior to the Festival. Either way, I reckon he'll keep on winning. Whether he's a backable price remains to be seen...

5. Blazing Bailey

For one so young, this horse has achieved stacks already. Tough, consistent, very genuine and would definitely have been placed in last season's World Hurdle had regular dance partner Choccie Thornton not decided to tango with My Way de Solzen instead. I don't think he'll make that mistake again, and I don't think My Way will ever finish in front of BB again (not that he did at Cheltenham either!).

Curiously, he marked his return to action with a win in a 0-75 lady riders' handicap. He won going away without recourse to the whip. I'd have expected nothing less.

6. King's Revenge

None from nine last season, but finished placed (first four) on seven of those occasions. He was also not beaten far in the County Hurdle in March, and a good second the other day in another competitive handicap - despite his trainer's horses not currently firing - marks him as one to follow.

I think he might pop up a couple of times at nice prices this season. He's entered in the Greatwood at Cheltenham on 16th November (doesn't get any easier for him!).

7. Abragante

David Pipe's old man, Martin, farmed the Paddy Power Gold Cup with an astonishing SIX wins in the last ten years, and you can bet that Pipe Jr. will want to join dad in winning this race.

Pipe has a host of entries, but I think the one to look at is Abragante. He had a troubled trip last time out, but that run will have served to freshen him up for this.

I'm pretty sure he'll win this season, even if not in the PP Gold Cup and, if he does, his odds should cover the times when he's beaten.

8. Terramarique

Nicky Henderson is just a brilliant race horse trainer. His Terramarique has a phenomenal win record (9 wins from last 13 starts), and is entered tomorrow.

He's no world beater, but has been expertly placed to pick up race after race. The race he's entered in tomorrow is a little warmer than previous runs, so one of two things will happen. Either, a) he'll win and we'll get paid, or b) he'll lose and the trainer will lower his sights, and we'll get paid next time. I hope...

9. Ballygowan Star

Jim Best may not be the top training name on everyone's lips but he's a pretty shrewd cookie, and places his horses very well. In amongst his motley stable of selling platers and low ranking handicappers, he seems to have picked up a nice sort in Ballygowan Star.

Twice raced in Ireland in B-list bumpers, he ran creditably to finish runner up on the second of those occasions. He's got a few entries this week, and I reckon he might win a couple of novices before too long.

10. Thistlecraft

Completing the line up is Trainer Track Stats trainer, CC Bealby, who is ticking along nicely this season, and looks to have a horse who will win in turn at fair prices in Thistlecraft. Although he's only won 2 of his 13 chase starts, he has been in the first three six times - and often at decent prices.

Thistlecraft won't set the world alight, but he will likely allow us to cash a ticket this season.

So there you have it - my ten against the field: a mix of top class horses and basement scraping nags. But, I believe, most will reach the winners' circle, and I'll be following them with a combination of hope, expectation, and cold hard lucre!

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Finally, I just wanted to say that I've now added the Fancy Fillies lay selections to my personal punting portfolio, and two losers out of two so far this week is a natural enough continuation of the fine form it showed during the trial. The link to my review is here, and you can go directly to the Fancy Fillies page here (should you so wish).

That's all for today - good luck if you're wagering.

Matt

Freebies Galore, And A Fair Bit More!

My dad has a saying, dear reader, which is almost always true. He told me how when he first came to England and was working in the bar of a big hotel, he had a deal with the chef one evening.

The chef was fond of a small glass of Guinness from time to time, and my dad had access to said black stuff. My dad knew that steak was on the menu one night, and asked the chef if he could possibly have a small piece for his dinner (meals were part of his working arrangement).

The chef suggested that a deal could be struck, which of course it was, with the phrase, "Giovanni, you get nothing for nothing, and very little for sixpence".

It's a saying that resonates strongly with me, and is why it usually pays to consider the price and the value of things when you're shopping. Forgive me if you know all this already, but for those who aren't clear on what I'm wittering on about, let me expound briefly:

The price of something is what it costs in cold currency. This is an incontrovertible fact, like £6.99.

The value of something is what it is worth to you, which may be more, less or the same as the price.

We have inherent sensors for this sort of thing, which means that generally when we're offered something for free, we either think, 'What's the catch?' or 'If its free, it must be worthless'. And, in fairness, we are often right to think this way.

So what is the point of all this endlessly fascinating (ahem), though seemingly un-horse-y related verbiage?

The point is that the thing about which I could previously not speak, is now something about which I can speak!

One of the savvier racing service providers has put together an excellent deal for all people interested in racing systems and services, which presumably includes you by dint of the fact that you read my blog!

In a nutshell, if you go to http://www.horseracing-giveaway.com/022.htm you will see what I mean.

There are 24 racing site owners all offering you something for 'nothing'. I use the inverted commas, as there is a small catch, inasmuch as if you want the free stuff you have to provide your email address in most cases.

In the case of my offer, if you're already registered to receive blog update notifications from me, then I'll be sending you an email this afternoon with the freebie links for my offer. So, to be clear, no need to sign up for my offer, as you will be getting this stuff anyway later today.

If you see anything else of interest amongst the other 23 guys, then feel free to sign up and grab your copy.

The web address again is http://www.horseracing-giveaway.com/022.htm .

That's all for today - I'm away to see what the 'competition' is up to!

Matt