Geegeez.co.uk: Horse Racing Blog for UK Horse Racing Systems

Back In The Saddle...

2008-12-29T11:37:00.011Z

Back in the saddle, dear reader, after a couple of days off down in Dorset with my family. It's been an interesting few days with, like many of you I imagine, far too much of... well, pretty much everything really.

Too much food, too much booze, too many gifts, too many arguments, too many bets, and so on!

So, as much as I enjoyed my little holiday, in many ways it's great to be back and doing what I love: writing about horse races and horse racing systems.

********

Talking of horse races, there is never a shortage of top drawer racing action at this time of year, and we managed to find a couple of winners on the blog too, though nothing fancy to write home about.

Typically, because of the fall of Punjabi (who must have beaten that one-paced goat, Harchibald, had he remained hooves down head up instead of hooves up head down), I lost over the five races.

Breedsbreeze set me up nicely, as I'd taken the 9/4 (which was a good bit bigger than I was expecting to be available), but I went long on Punjabi at what seemed very generous odds of 6/4. Barring the fall, I suspect they would have been very generous.

The King George was a procession for the Star that is Kauto, and hats off to him and his handlers for a brilliant performance.

Although the Pipe pair were pretty poor, solace for me came in a much improved performance from Albertas Run, which gives some hope for Cheltenham, where I have a small ante-post voucher.

The Welsh National was ultimately disappointing, as Officier De Reserve came to win the race, but was knackered and gave best first to Notre Pere, then - at the wire - to Cornish Sett and Halcon Genelardais.

Halcon ran a great race having been outpaced early, and I'm very surprised that he's been eased in the Gold Cup betting given that he was ceding lumps of lead all round in this affair.

Assuming that the big one is still his target, I reckon double digit place odds are extremely fair. Neptune Collonges has no chance of making the frame again and, behind the front two, there are any number of dodgepots who are unlikely to run their race.

The recent history of the Gold Cup reveals a few dour plodders who have perenially made the frame (such as Sir Rembrandt and Harbour Pilot), and Halcon still has a chance in my book, especially if it comes up testing (which would be against Kauto as well as Neptune, and would certainly test any frailties in the fibrillations of Denman's dicky ticker).

Exotic Dancer came up trumps over at Leopardstown in the Lexus Chase, and takers of the 11/2 early would have been happier than the happy people who cashed 4/1 winning tickets on this chap. He has a touch of class but is not quite good enough to win a Gold Cup. Like The Listener and Beef or Salmon before him, this may have been his Gold Cup.

********

Elsewhere, and in the wonderful world of horse racing systems, it was an interesting time for the products from the Geegeez / Nag Nag Nag stables. TrainerTrackStats had a plethora of runners (as did all racing systems over this frenzied period), and some juicy fat winners to put us strongly back in the black.

Those winners included Sentry Duty (20th Dec, 12/1); Ordre De Battaile (26th, 4/1); Quazy De Joie (26th, 9/1); Supreme Keano (26th, 8/1); Walkon (27th, 7/2); Ingratitude (27th, 5/1); Pemberton (27th, 4/1); and, Santa's Son (who else?! 27th, 5/1), amongst others.

Because both Gavin and I have been away, the opportunity to get TTS to the end of the season still exists, and will do until the turn of the year. So, if you'd like to get full member access from now until April 30th (when the season finishes), click the link below:

********

Over at Laying System, it's been a bizarre, frustrating, and ultimately I think highly promising month.

One of the laying systems (there are three in the members' portfolio) has a price threshold of 14/1 to lay at.

In the four and a half years of results data I had researched, there were twenty winners at 14/1. That's an average of one every 2.7 months.

We've had THREE in a MONTH!!

Remarkably, despite that statistical aberration (which I fully expect to be righted by an extended spell where no such winners appear), Laying System remains level for the month.

Of course, it's highly frustrating for me that during the period of free trial, these big winners (and therefore big losers) have struck, but that's the nature of trials. It's exactly for this reason that I offer a free period, and that I strongly suggest members paper trade.

Those that understand the cyclical nature of the statistical based systems, and that are comfortable with the downside risks in the short term, will be as heartened as I am by the overall results.

I expect the next few weeks to redress the imbalance of those nasty 14/1 shots (two of which were subject to inspired rides from their pilots), and push Laying System members further into the black.

The bad news, lest you were interested in getting access to these runners, is that membership is still closed, and is likely to be for a while to come. At the risk of repeating myself, when I do reopen the doors (probably not until at least February), the price will be a wee bit higher than now.

I have very high confidence in the long term performance of this service, and - when the time comes to promote the service more widely - it will carry a premium price tag befitting a premium service. Those who took advantage of the Geegeez special offer will be sitting pretty. :o)

********

The pick of the day's racing is over at Leopardstown again today, where the hurdlers take centre stage. The news over the weekend that Sizing Europe was struggling with lameness is enough to put me off backing him today, even though - if fit - he'd surely be the one to beat.

The old stagers, Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca, come back for more, and Brave Inca could take some stopping if not suffering from the dreaded 'bounce' (running below par on the second start back after a prolonged absence).

But the one that may represent some value, assuming Sizing is not quite right, is Muirhead. He jumped a bit sloppily on debut last time, and will strip a good bit fitter today. 9/1 or thereabouts is a fair each way price, and he'll have to run into the money here to have any realistic pretensions of Champion Hurdle glory.

With doubts over the favourite though, it may be a race to watch rather than wager.

********

As for a punt today, why not try Silver Blondin in the closing bumper at Newbury. He's bred to be super good (daddy won the St Leger and was 2nd in the Derby; mummy was a half-sister to Champion Hurdlers Morley Street and Granville Again).

There are lots of nice horses in the race, including Francois Doumen's French smoothie, Doctor Pat, who is fancied to run well.

But, with his amazing strike rate in this type of event, Nicky Henderson's Silver Blondin will do for me.

********

Right, its planning time now. I'm going to have a good head scratch about what will be in store for next year, and the feedback you've already kindly provided will form a key part of that.

Until tomorrow,
Matt

p.s. Fortysecond Street (11/4) and Planet of Sound at 13/8 (Betfair SP just shy of 2/1) just won to give TTS punters another pair of winners. Sign up for the rest of the year here NOW!

Bumper Christmas Selection Box!

2008-12-23T10:20:00.004Z

Well, I've gone and done it, dear reader, I've decided to have a couple of days off! So, from tomorrow until somewhere just before the New Year, there'll be no blogging and little to no email communication. The Geegeez trail will briefly run cold. I hope that's ok with you, and suspect many of you will be far too tied up with little people and other sundry relatives getting in the way of your Racing Post and TV viewing... (no? just me then!)

But before I snuff out the candle I'm going to go through all the big races from a trends perspective. So, below, you'll find the Feltham Novices' Chase, Christmas Hurdle, and King George VI Chase (all from Kempton on Boxing Day); the Coral Welsh National from Chepstow on 27th; and, the Lexus Chase from Leopardstown on 28th. If I don't find a winner from that quacking quintet, I may hang up my virtual pen! (Don't worry, I won't really...!)

So lets get quacking!

********

First then, the Feltham Novices' Chase, won in the last decade by such up and comers as Bacchanal, Jair du Cochet, Darkness and Joe Lively. What you'll instantly notice there is that it's not much of a trial for Cheltenham.

Kempton is about as far removed from Chelters as is possible to imagine: suburban, right-handed, flat, a test of speed. So whatever wins these three races, I'd be cautious of steaming in to back the beast for a championship event in the Cotswolds in March.

The trends for the race are thus:

- 9 out of 10 winners were 5-7 years old (the exception being last year's winner Joe Lively, the first in his age group since 1985!). Interestingly, three of the eight declared are eight year olds. I'll reluctantly strike them out, in the hope that this year's winner doesn't perpetuate a new emerging trend.

- 7 out of 10 winners ran in Graded company last time out. That excludes all bar Breedsbreeze and Hold Em.

With a 16 length verdict over Breedsbreeze last time out already in the back pocket, strong preference is for Paul Nicholl's young buck Breedsbreeze. That'll barely pay for the Paxo to go up the turkey though!

********

Onwards. Next up, the Stan James Christmas Hurdle. Again, despite the previous winner roster being packed with quality, there are no Cheltenham heroes amongst Straw Bear, Harchibald, Intersky Falcon, Geos and Dato Star.

This year's contest features one or two of the 'B List' for the Champion Hurdle, but is unlikely to shake that market up a great deal. The trends tell us this:

- 8 of the last 10 (indeed the last 8) winners were 5 or 6 years old.
- 8 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 160 or better
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the front two in the betting

Also, the Irish have won 3 out of the last four runnings; and the Fighting Fifth hurdle was the previous destination for no fewer than six of the last ten winners.

So, if we apply all that to this year's field, we note the following:

Pierrot Lunaire is too young (4yo), and he fell last time out; Aitmatov, Harchibald and Straw Bear are too old (though the last two are previous winners, and the first named is an Irish challenger).

Blue Bajan, Khyber Kim, Leslingtaylor, Pierrot Lunaire and Snap Tie are not good enough (rated below 160).

This leaves Nicky Henderson's pair, Afsoun and Punjabi. As a previous course and distance winner, who also won the Fighting Fifth last time out, Punjabi (nap) looks nailed on, although again - at around evens - he's not going to make us fat (that's what the trifle's there for!).

********

Now to the big one: the Stan James King George VI Chase. Hopefully with a few bonus shekels from the 'undercard', we're now ready to play our hand in the biggie.

Curiously, the Cheltenham Gold Cup has proven an excellent pointer to this race with past alumni Kauto Star, Kicking King, Best Mate and See More Business all winning here AFTER winning the Gold Cup the previous season. Moreover, Edredon Bleu also won a championship race at HQ (Queen Mother Champion Chase) prior to his victory here.

Let's have a look at the stats. Bear in mind that the last four years have seen two 'repeaters' in Kauto and Kicking, the former bidding for a three-timer on Friday.

- 9 out of 10 were aged 9 or younger. Indeed, Edredon Bleu was the only 'senior' to win in almost twenty years. I'll wave a fond adieu to golden oldies, Mont Misere, Our Vic and the rejuvenated Snoopy Loopy.

- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 165 or higher (would be 8 if Francois Doumen's brilliant First Gold had a UK rating). Not this time then for Air Force One, Albertas Run (very disappointing this season thus far), Briareus, or Hennessey winner Imperial Commander.

- With the exception of Kicking King the year the race was run at Sandown (and therefore the trends are diluted a little), all of the other nine winners in the last decade won last time out. Scratch Exotic Dancer, Kauto Star (...), Tamarinbleu, Voy Por Ustedes and War of Attrition.

We now have a problem in that there are no horses left! No matter, let's consider some other stats and then see where we are:

Aside from Teeton Mill, all the other nine previous winners had at least one Grade 1 win to their name. Qualifiers on this angle are Air Force One, Albertas Run, Kauto, Our Vic, Snoopy, Tamarinbleu, Voy Por and War of Attrition.

I couldn't back Alberta currently; War of Attrition is past his best by a margin; Snoopy Loopy looks too old (and may be taken off his feet by these); and, Air Force One might not be quite good enough.

That leaves me with Kauto Star, Our Vic, Tamarinbleu, and Voy Por Ustedes. In a race that has frequently fallen to the front two in the betting (8 of the last 10 winners), I will go ignore KS and VPU who currently occupy those market positions, in search of a spot of each way value.

Tamarinbleu finished 2nd to Snoopy Loopy in the Betfair Chase last time, when Kauto famously fell at the final fence. The last three winners of the King George had finished on the podium in that race, and Tam is entitled to come on for the run, which was his seasonal debut. Although soundly beaten last season at Aintree, I reckon he'll run a big race here. His 'catch me if you can' front running style is also well suited to the demands of the race.

My other against the field is Our Vic. Second in the race last year, behind Kauto, he avenged that defeat later in the season at another flat track, Aintree. Assuming his form is closely aligned with that of the former best chaser on the planet (who may now be in regression), then 10/1 is a very fair each way ticket.

So, each way a pleasure, sir, on David Pipe's duo, Tamarinbleu and Our Vic.

********

Next up it's the Coral Welsh National, a marathon slog around the Welsh border countryside. Three and three quarter miles in the soft, on the vast exposed Chepstow track is a harsh examination of jumping and staying, and I expect few to be fighting at the finish.

The statistics say this:

- Last ten winners all aged six to nine years. Alas, this doesn't help at all!

- Apart from the very high class Gold Cup hopeful (for me at least!), Halcon Genelardais, no horse has carried more than 10-09 to victory here in the past decade.

- 10 out of 10 winners had finished in the first four last time out. However, only 3 out of 10 won last time out.

Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies are the trainers to follow here, although the Alners also have a good record, and so does Venetia Williams.

I can't select all their horses, so I'm going to put my neck on the blog and - incredibly - agree with Gavin's ante-post tip, Beat The Boys. Gavin tipped him up at 20/1 way back on 5th December, and he's now a best priced 16's (bigger in the win market on the exchanges). He looks a cracking each way tilt.

I'll weigh in also with Paul Nicholls' Officier de Reserve, who is a very likely type on trends, despite being unluckily carried out by another nag last time.

Curiously, given they go 6/1 the field, I'm quite confident of a payout here!

********

Lastly, in the racing melee on the telly, the Lexus Chase will be run on Sunday over in Ireland. This is what recent evidence suggests in relation to this contest:

- 8 out of 10 winners were aged 8 or less
- Four of the last five winners (since the race became a Grade 1) were rated 170 or more, with the other one (The Listener) being the exception.

The race looks below standard this term, with very few of the five day entries anywhere near the 170 bar.

Taking out the 9yo+ brigade, the likely lads are Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. The former is also entered in the King George, but if he runs over in Ireland (as the betting suggests he will), 11/2 with Sportingbet looks an each way bet to nothing (cue a 4th place finish!).

So there you have it, my five to play and hope they pay. Actually, there's seven, so - if pushed - I'll take Tamarinbleu over Our Vic, and Beat The Boys over Officier de Reserve.

********

A quick Project Betfair update. Although the selection won yesterday, it failed to qualify due to the price stipulation. Today sees two possible candidates go to post:

Fontwell
2.15 Brenin Cwmtudu

Southwell
3.00 Lithaam

********

Before I close, a bizarre request if I may. Can I please ask you to click the link below if your surname begins with a letter in the range A-M?

http://ezinearticles.com/?Winners-to-Losers-System-Review&id=1549861

(The reason being that if enough of you, but not too many, click the link, I will get into the top 15 places for this article, which means more people will end up at this 'ere blog and hopefully be directed to a few Quistmas Quackers).

********

And finally, as my mates The Ronnies would say, it just remains for me to thank you all enormously for your readership, feedback and good wishes over the last few months (yes, unbelievably, Geegeez has only been in existence since early September!).

And, of course, to wish you a Christmas blessed with sanity amid the madness; winners amid the losers; and love, food and wine aplenty.

Matt

More Betting Thoughts: What Trends To Look For In A Horse Racing System...

2008-12-22T09:58:00.002Z

The cold continues, dear reader, ensuring my nose and throat are as full as my inbox currently. And it's directly to the inbox that we'll go, as promised yesterday, to answer publicly another reader's question.

Steve, from Tasmania no less (you devil!), wrote in to ask about systems research, specifically in relation to trainer patterns. His email is below, and my answer then follows:

From: Steve W
Sent: 18 December 2008 23:27
To: info@ATgeegeez.co.uk
Subject: Geegeez Question

Hello there Matt,

Firstly - I hope you're feeling a bit better?? Nothing worse than being crook!

My name's Steve, and I'm in Tasmania - Australia.

I've been looking up your stuff and read some of your articles - excellent stuff!

To be brief:- I was hopeless in my 20's on the punt. I read some good stuff (good books), but had neither the capital nor the discipline to bet sensibly. I had a good long break from punting that did me the world of good.

Now, a bit older (33) and wiser(!) I'd like to make a fresh start. One of the things that always intrigued me was trainer stats. I have a couple questions, if you don't mind. I'm hoping you might swing me in the right direction with a bit of advice and guidance?

(a) Have you found any books particularly helpful? Been a long time since I've bought any.

(b) I intend to purchase a database of some sort for Austalian racing, so I should be able to have a look at some systems. I'm looking forward to that. Any advice there (other than, keep the rules logical?) I note with interest that you don't mind being track specific in your mechanical systems that you have posted in some of your old newsletters? Have you ever gone back to see how they've held up? Can a portfolio of systems approach win overall?

(c) Trainer stats! Where do I start?? lol Here is where I'm really hoping you might help me on my path. Obviously there's a lot of things one can look for. Are you able to guide me in what you've found to hold up over time? When I've had a cursory look, I've noted that stats between different trainers in broad categories just don't seem to hold up year to year (e.g. one year J Smith made a profit with first uppers, the next year you would have lost following them). In fact, so far, (albeit from a cursory look), the stat that seems to hold up strongly is that some trainers are very much overbet on there short priced horses. So - either lay them, or, the overbetting of them creates value in the race.

In the DRF form guide (for the USA) I noticed that they track the trainer patterns (switches) - things like blinkers on, big class changes etc. Is that the sort of thing you are looking for??

One thing I've noticed here in Australia, is that a trainer who has a really good strike rate at that particular track, do seem to win a good few races!!

So - I'm looking for advice really!

What type of stats to track

How to use those to bet! (i.e. does one still handicap the horse etc)

Finally - I'm interested in your answer if I were to ask you: "why do you fundamentally believe that your trainer stats method will continue to be an underbet (therefore profitable) method into the future?

If you've read this far - many thanks for your time! It's a big ask of a stranger, but I'm really hoping you might help me out here!

Blessings & merry christmas to you,

Steve

--------------

Hi Steve

Many thanks for your long email, and sorry for the delay in coming back to you. I’ve been under something of a deluge just recently! Still feeling rough, I’m sorry to report on the sickness front, which of course doesn’t help anything.

Regarding your questions

(a) I’m not sure if you’re referring to Australian racing (about which I have no knowledge!), or UK racing. If the latter, there are some excellent statistical compilations, such as Raceform’s ‘Trainer Jump Statistics 2007-8’ (ISBN 978-1-905153-78-7), in which you may find some lucrative lesser known trainers with profitable sub-trends.

There is also a flat racing version of this book, called ‘Trainers Flat Statistics’, ISBN (978-1905153749).

Both of these are available from Amazon, and all good sports book resellers.

I do of course produce my own jumps statistical guide, called ‘TrainerTrackStats’, which you can get from www.trainertrackstats.com. I’ve produced this in conjunction with Gavin Priestley this season, and it continues to show a profit as it has done in every previous season we’ve produced it.

(b) and (c) Regarding what sorts of parameters to look for when researching a system, if the system is based on trainer patterns, then it logically follows that you should consider possible differences in the way trainers train. Taking that a step further, I mean that here in the UK, some trainers are more effective with horses run over shorter trips or on sharper, i.e. less stamina sapping courses. Some perform best when there is a real slog.

For instance, Nigel Twiston-Davies has the following record over the last four seasons (14/1 odds or shorter):

2m races 68 wins from 332 runs (20.48% strike rate) Loss of 34.62 points

2m1f – 3m 145 wins from 781 runs (18.57% strike rate) Loss of 40.22 points

Over 3m 48 wins from 236 runs (20.34% strike rate) Profit of 56.58 points

Although the strike rate remains consistent, the profit emerges only in races with more of an emphasis on endurance. (Incidentally, this implies that his horses are overbet at shorter distances, and underbet at longer distances.

Taking another example, let’s look at Alan King’s record over the same period:

2m races 128 wins from 571 runs (22.42% strike rate) Loss of 62.31 points

2m1f – 3m 184 wins from 870 runs (21.15% strike rate) Profit of 47.27 points

Over 3m 30 wins from 146 runs (20.55% strike rate) Profit of 22.31 points

Although on the face of it, it appears that we should back King’s runners at anything beyond the minimum trip, slightly deeper research reveals that for trips beyond 3m, you would have lost in three of the four seasons in questions, and a couple of big priced winners in 2006/7 season have skewed the stats somewhat.

Trainers may also train horses for chases rather than fences, or vice versa (or even for bumper / flat races).
Consider the following over the last four seasons:

Alan Swinbank (3 and 4 year old horses)

Hurdles 3 wins from 17 runs 17.65% strike rate

Bumpers 27 wins from 75 runs 36% strike rate

Nicky Henderson (all horses)

Chases 73 wins from 358 runs 20.38% strike rate

Hurdles 159 wins from 659 runs 24.13% strike rate

Bumpers 51 wins from 159 runs 32.08% strike rate

Some trainers focus more on precocious early types (both the above are examples of this), whereas others tend to allow their horses more time to mature.

Some trainers focus on setting horses up for nice priced handicap wins, so the race type is another area to look at.

Some trainers see their horses perform on certain ground conditions (often, though not always, allied to whether they train horses for stamina or speed).

And all trainers go through good and bad runs – in some cases, this is ‘deliberate’ in so much as they train their horses en masse for certain key targets, such as the Cheltenham or Aintree festivals.

Although in the above examples I’ve tried to find positive indicators, do bear in mind that with all of these, you may well uncover strong negative patterns that can be used to handicap a race without a certain runner (or, of course, to lay the negative trend horses).

Finally Steve, in answer to your question about why I think TTS will continue to be underbet and therefore profitable to follow, this is simple. We don’t make fortunes and most of my customers are small players whose total cumulative investment measures more as a ripple than a splash in the great liquidity ocean that is Betfair (where virtually all TTS players wager).

In other words, TTS is not mainstream. Even though a few hundred people now use it, that’s as nothing to the tens of thousands who play on Betfair. And, moreover, when the average TTS punter stake is factored in against the average Betfair unit stake, again TTS is not hitting the pools hard. Of course, this may not last forever. But for now, I’m comfortable and confident that things will continue ‘as is’.

Hope this helps, and if you do find anything interesting in your Oz research, perhaps I can help you market your system (if that’s a route you’d like to take).

Best Regards,
Matt

********

I will try to feature some of the more interesting letters on here going forwards, as this seems to be a popular feature in newspapers and magazines (I assume for their reader interest rather than just as filler - I hope you don't consider the above to be the latter!).

********

Onto Project Betfair, and after a no bets day yesterday, today's runners are:

Hereford
2.10 Six Day War

Ok, so that should have been today's runner is... but no matter.

********

Finally, although its only Monday, I heard a great joke yesterday from my old friends Ronnie and Ronnie (Barker and Corbett, lest you're not following), in the 'And here is the news' section of their timeless, peerless Christmas Special of many moons ago:

A woman from Worcester was seen covering her horse with lettuce and tomato yesterday. When asked what she was doing, she replied that she wanted to ride side salad... Boom, boom!

It may just be me, but I thought that was brilliant.

Until tomorrow,
Matt

Sunday Service: Some Betting Thoughts...

2008-12-21T12:14:00.003Z

The mailbag has rivaled my poor old postie's own sack in the run up to Christmas, dear reader, as questions have been fired in on a diverse array of subjects.

To be honest, I'm having a bit of trouble keeping up with my relative inboxes right now - I get more than 50 emails a day across the various sites and products. I do always try to reply to everyone individually, but please don't be dismayed if it takes me a little longer than normal just now.

Actually, I wanted to answer a couple of emails here in the blog, as I think my replies - and indeed the questions posited - may have a wider appeal than just the original sender.

So, without further ado, here's Ivan's questions about the Project Betfair system, which I've replied to in a wider context.

Hi Matt,

Dont know if you received my first email today, but just wanted to send you a warning about Project Betfair. I purchased ebook and subscribed to tipping service and since I started using system I had 11 bets and 5 of them were winners. Three of them today (12.40 More Like It,2.40 Risque Heights, 3.20 Thoughtsofstardom - all of them were lays - following the system rules).

I just cant belive that it's a bad luck or variance and I think that there are big leaks in the system and I wont be using it any more. I'm afraid to place any more lays that system suggest as they dont justyfy the odds of 5.0-6.0 with the winning rate of little bit better than 50%.

It would be a nice thing if you could post a warning on your blog to save your subscribers some money.
I also requested refund from Project Betfair team as they offer 60 days money back guarantee. I'll let you know if I find any trouble with that.

Thanks for your posts and news from racing world.

Regards

Ivan

---------

Hi Ivan

This is the first email I’ve had from you – thanks for writing in.

I have some comments, which you may not agree with:

- When you buy a new system, you should use the period of trial / refund to paper trade. You should NEVER start trading a system from day one, unless you are completely certain its for you.

- I believe in the logic of this specific system, and any system can have a bad run. Before you signed up, they were having an excellent time of it, so this merely redresses that (although they are now in a negative position for the time being).

- Project Betfair sell through Clickbank and so you will definitely get your money back – if not directly, then write to refunds@clickbank.com

- I have been trialling the system on my blog and I’ll review it accordingly at the end of the trial

Although you may not agree with these comments, I hope they help to clarify what I believe the position to be.

Best Regards,
Matt

Key points here about ANY system.

1. Make sure there's a money back guarantee and / or a free trial.

2. Use the guarantee / trial period to paper trade until you're happy.

3. It is NOT ok to blame a system vendor if you have gone 'gung ho from the get go'. It is your money, and you should not entrust it to somebody else, unless you have confidence in that person.

4. (Sorry for this) Only bet with money you can afford to lose!

OK, soap box away for now. I'll return tomorrow with another reader's letter, and my reply.

*********

The aforementioned Project Betfair had a 'dayus horribilis' yesterday. Results were as below:

Haydock
3.10 Can't Buy Time (LOST, did not qualify due to price)

Newcastle
12.40 More Like It (WON, Betfair SP 4.74/1)

Lingfield
2.40 Risque Heights (WON, Betfair SP 3.94/1)
2.40 Saucy (LOST)
3.20 Bookiesindex Boy (LOST, did not qualify due to price)
3.20 Thoughtsofstardom (WON, did not qualify due to price)

Wolverhampton
7.20 Whiskey Creek (LOST, did not qualify due to price)
7.50 Lochiel (LOST)
7.50 Master At Arms (LOST)
8.20 To Be Or Not To Be (WON, Betfair SP 3/1)
9.20 Spinning (LOST)
9.20 Hyde Lea Flyer (WON, Betfair SP 2.49/1)

A loss of 10.2 points on the day, and a running total of -9.2 points since I started tracking.

There are no qualifiers today.

********

Finally, don't forget to avail yourself of the TTS special should you so wish. The rest of the season for a once off payment that equate to less than half price. (post script, the first runner today just won at 9/4...)

Click here to take advantage

[Note: if you're already a subscriber, you simply cancel your current sub through PayPal and sign up for the new one.]

Enjoy your Sunday, and I'll be back tomorrow.

Matt

Early Christmas Present, For Those Who Like All The Trimmings!

2008-12-19T18:08:00.004Z

Just a short post today, dear reader, to tell you about a final Christmas special that you might be interested in.

TrainerTrackStats is enjoying something a purple patch currently and, to mark the occasion in fitting style, I've managed to persuade Gavin that we should do something special for all of our loyal readers. [In fairness, Gavin said it was a great idea, and no persuasion was required... but where's the story in that?!]

So, from now until Christmas Day - that is, the next five days - if you want to get TrainerTrackStats, you can for a single payment of just £67. That's less than two months' fees for more than four months' access. I'd say its the kind of deal you get in Woolworths currently, but that's a bit sick.

(Seriously, I was in the Hackney store yesterday: it felt like vultures picking at the carrion. And the sickly Tirujuana Christmas tunes being piped out were an insult to the good people working there. Moreover, the bloke who owns Iceland (the frozen food chain, not the ailing nation of Landsbanki and potless former biscuit barons) offered Woolies' management a million quid to take on their debt and restructure the company. That was about four months ago. The management should be sick to the pits of their stomachs at the needless hardship they've caused their workers. I digress big time...!)

So, it's a great offer for a great product, but then you know that already.

If you want it, go get it from the link below:

TTS Christmas Special Offer... When The Turkey's On, The Offer's Done...

********

Just time for a quick look at one of the big races today, the BGC Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot.

A few key trends I think, thus:

- 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9
- 8 of the last 9 winners were 12/1 or shorter
- 6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-01 or less (including the last four)
- Martin Pipe 3 wins, David Pipe 1 win; Henry Daly 2 wins

So, I'm looking for a lightly weighted young-ish horse near the front of the betting, and I'll place extra focus on anything trained by Pipe or Daly.

Step forward Alderburn, a horse with more thirds to his name than most, and trained by in-form Henry Daly.

David Pipe won the Hennessey a couple of weeks ago, frustratingly beating Geegeez selection, Air Force One, with a big priced animal (Madison du Berlais at 25/1). It wouldn't be the biggest shock ever if his once uber-promising novice, Dom D'Orgeval, were to run back to form at around 'double carpet' (33/1).

Most of his best form is on flat tracks, so Cheltenham last time would have done for him, as would have the fact that it was his seasonal debut. Granted we have to go back to the season before last to find winning form, but that's only three runs, and this stable surely wouldn't persist unless the fire still smouldered at least. Would they?! At the price, a token tickle may be rewarded.

Up at Haydock, the Tommy Whittle Chase is usually a fair trial for the Grand National, with Suny Bay and Cloudy Lane winning this before going off strongly fancied in the big one.

All of the last ten runnings have been won by a 7, 8 or 9 year old, and all by a horse at odds of 10/1 or shorter.

Interestingly (perhaps), eight of the ten winners lugged more than 11 stone to post.

Those criteria point squarely at last year's winning connections, represented this time by 10/1 shot Idle Talk. He's as in and out as a professional Hokey Cokey'er, but if on an in day, could advertise his Aintree aspirations.

The other, more obvious one, is hat-trick hero, Can't Buy Time. Trained by Jonjo (successfully with two short favourites in the last seven years, and ridden by Monsieur McCoy, you'd be foolish to leave him out of calculations.

Take these two against the field.

********

Today's Project Betfair runners are:

Haydock
3.10 Can't Buy Time

Newcastle
12.40 More Like It

Lingfield
2.40 Risque Heights
2.40 Saucy
3.20 Bookiesindex Boy
3.20 Thoughtsofstardom

Wolverhampton
7.20 Whiskey Creek
7.50 Lochiel
7.50 Master At Arms
8.20 To Be Or Not To Be
9.20 Spinning
9.20 Hyde Lea Flyer

That's it from me today... TTS... For the rest of the season... £67... Until Christmas Day only...

Get TTS NOW...

Bon weekend,
Matt

More Goodies in this Season of Goodwill...

2008-12-19T16:38:00.003Z

Tis the season to be jolly, dear reader, with a fa la la la laaa, and all that. So, after yesterday's Low Hanging Fruit end of stock sale, there are more - hopefully useful - goodies up for grabs today...

First up, thanks a million to all those who steamed into yesterday's special offer. The truth is I had another box of the disks which I could have returned sealed and the duplicator would have recycled.

As it turned out, over sixty of you signed up within six hours, and I had to take the link down! Yet again, my dear reader, you well and truly flabber my gast.

Special mentions go to Rae, in Victoria, Australia, who benefits from the best value as the postage was more than the price in PayPal (!); and Samuel who, unperturbed by the fact that the link had been removed from the blog, paid full ticket £69.95 to get a copy (I've refunded you £65.95 Samuel, and thanks for your vote of confidence).

I now have absolutely none left, so please don't try to buy this.

This exercise has confirmed to me that many of you are interested in trying to make a few quid online and, in acknowledgment of that, I will be starting a new blog in the New Year, to try to help you along. It'll likely be a bit more 'hands on' than Geegeez, and I think it's important to differentiate between horses and internet marketing - some people are interested in both, many people are only fussed for one or the other.

Anyway, enough for now: more in due course.

********

So to another festive giveaway - I hope you think we look after you here and at Nag3!

I think it's fair to say that most of you know about my feelings regarding the new Racing Post site. In case you don't, I do not like it one iota. Nevertheless, for all my frustration and annoyance at the speed of the site; the changes to amount of data you can see on the page; and, most gallingly, the fact that I foresee a membership model in the new year, RP remains far and away the best site for form study and realistic betting forecasts.

So, to help me and millions (well hundreds at least) of others up the learning curve, and over the distaste barrier, that wily fox Jonathan Burgess has produced a guide to the new site, which he's giving away free.

You may have seen this already if you're a member of the Betting School (and I believe it has also been published in one further place, though can't remember where).

If you haven't, and you - like me - are still struggling to get to grips with the new Racing Post site, you'll want to download this as an invaluable companion until you're up to speed (pardon the ironic pun) with RP Mark II. I've already found the Runners Index, the whereabouts of which was previously unknown to me, extremely useful.

To get your copy, you'll need to click the link below and follow the very straightforward instructions there.

Get Your FREE Racing Post Guide Here

One thing you will notice is that there are links at the bottom of each page in the guide to Jonathan's own horse racing manual, False Favourites. This guide will be known to many of you already. For those who aren't aware of it, it is - in my opinion- one of the best value laying manuals (not really a system as such) on the market - I say value, because its a hefty document, and you'll be surprised by the price I reckon.

JB is one of the good guys, and a man whose material I'm happy to share with you here (especially when its free!).

Enough of the sycophancy already - if you're still struggling with the RP site, go get the guide!

Now that we know how to read the Post again, life will hopefully be a little simpler...

********

Onwards...

Time for an update on the two most talked about systems of the moment.

First up, the Betting Vault continues to confound, confuse, and downright confuddle with it's weird and amateurish combination of justifying losers and constant reference to quarter the SP as a rule of thumb for the Betfair place market.

Yesterday's schoolboyish email is copied below for your amusement / bemusement:

The bettingvault.com had an average day with 3 out of the 7 selections WINNING for us!
1) DOMINICAN MONK was a PLACE bet at 8/1(SP) and came 3rd and WON for us.
2) TAKE ME THERE was sent off at 11/4 and was a PLACE bet, again we won as the selection cames 1st.
3) OISEAU DE NUIT was a PLACE bet at 15/8 but ran an awfull race and lost for us finishing in 7th place.
4) COLLEGE ACE was a PLACE bet at 17/2 and was edged out of 3rd by 1 length and was a loser for us.
5) CAROLES LEGACY was a WIN bet at 2/5 and came 1st winning for us.
6) CROSS KENNON was a PLACE bet at 5/1 and came 5th losing for us
7) BOLLINTREE BOB was a PLACE bet at 16/1 and was pulled up, losing for us

Based on the SP figures and divided by 4 to give the PLACE odds the selections profited by just under 2pts today.

Betfair SP is generally much higher and your actual results may vary at one point BOLLINTREE BOB was available in Betfairs WIN market at odds of 34.0 which is more than double the official SP.

Oh. Dear.

Worse still, news reaches me from a Geegeez reader that the system is actually STOLEN lock, stock and rusty barrel from another vendor. Now, whether its good or bad is secondary to whether the guy flogging it has the copyright. This is only hearsay, and I pass that snippet on as such (no litigation please), but if you weren't already sceptical, then you should be now.

To be honest, if you've already bought this, I'd send an email to refunds@clickbank.com and ask for your money back. If you haven't, don't!

[I'm now braced for some typically 'brusque feedback' from the vendors, but this should not have been allowed to come to market in my opinion...]

********

On a lighter and somewhat brighter note, Project Betfair was twelve from fourteen and plus four points after yesterday's three losers (thus, winners) and one winner (at 11/4, rounded to 3/1 for betfair purposes, and thus loser).

Today, the system nominated the following horses (sorry for 'after timing', but I've printed instructions, envelope labels, bagged and sent 60 odd 2-disk sets today!):

Ascot
3.05 Master Medic (WON 5/1, Betfair SP 4.9/1 (!))

Southwell
2.10 Gayanula (2nd, LOST, 5/2)
2.45 Charles Parnell (did not qualify, due to price threshold)

Wolverhampton
Mister New York (still to run)

So, a tough day for Project Betfair followers, with a four point loss with one to run. This now renders the overall position as level, which is not terrible but far from brilliant either.

I'll continue to track the Project Betfair until the racing stops before Christmas (December 23rd), and will write up my findings then.

I still have affection for this product, and all systems have wipeout days like this. In reality, it's a tad unfair to only trial it for ten days or so, when a month would still be on the short side.

********

Trainers in form was something that was asked for in the recent Geegeez survey. Well, ok then!

Hopefully, this will not signal the end of their blistering runs, but Miss Venetia Williams and Mr Alan King are in excellent fettle currently.

Between them, they have the following nags engaged tomorrow, and these are worth a second glance at least:

Venetia's tomorrow (copied from the Racing Post)

20Dec08