Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Preview, Trends and Tips
Can The Giant Bolster go one better?
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Preview, Trends and Tips
It’s just nine weeks until the Cheltenham Gold Cup will be the highlight of the final day of this year’s Cheltenham Festival, and most of the major players have already run their ‘serious’ trials.
Yes, a number of them will run again between now and the Gold Cup itself, but they’ll generally not be having hard races so close to the main event. So, with the form of the key trials safely in the book, what clues can we glean and – for those of us who struggle to resist the allure of the ante post market – where should we invest our folding?
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Trends
There are some strong trends, underpinned by strong logic, for the Gold Cup. And, if you like a nag which doesn’t pass muster here, you might want to re-evaluate your wagering strategy. Then again, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, so you may not…!
In any case, here are the material facts and figures:
- Age: Old horses don’t win the Gold Cup. In fact, the last horse older than ten to win was What A Myth in 1969. Tidal Bay is twelve now and, whilst his Lexus win is solid, there are reasons to believe he’ll not finish in front of all of the beasts he bested there at Cheltenham. At the other end of the spectrum, although Long Run won as a six-year-old in 2011, you’d have to go back to Mill House in 1963 to find the previous horse of that age to prevail.
In essence, we need a horse aged seven to ten, and probably only seven to nine year olds need apply.
- Official Rating: In the last fifteen years, four horses have won without a rating (from 67 to try). The remaining eleven winners were rated at least 166. This counts against the likes of The Giant Bolster, Kauto Stone, What A Friend, Grands Crus and Hunt Ball amongst plenty of others.
- Days since a run: Of those same fifteen winners, all had run between one and three months ago, with no fewer than ten Gold Cup winners having had between two and three months off the track. So, don’t fear a layoff of 60 to 90 days.
- Odds rank: Twelve of the last fifteen Cheltenham Gold Cup winners came from the first three in the betting. So this probably isn’t a race in which to get carried away with a long shot. Saying that, the other three winners were 16/1, 25/1, and 20/1 (but none was in the last dozen years).
- Last time out: Nine of the last fifteen Gold Cup winners also won on their prior start. Another three were second or third. One fell (Mr Mulligan), one pulled up (Cool Dawn), and one was fifth (Imperial Commander). All three of those unplaced last time out had been first or second at a previous Cheltenham Festival. Unsurprisingly, we’d be looking for a podium finisher last time, or a horse with proven Festival form.
So, on trends, I want a seven to ten year old, which has raced within the last three months, but not within a month of the main event; and probably in the top few in the market (though I’m interested in horse who have competed well at previous Festivals as likely outsiders)
Those which tick all boxes are Bobs Worth, the current favourite (assuming he has a run between now and mid-February, which he is scheduled to do); Sir Des Champs, the current second favourite; and Long Run, the current third favourite.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Form Preview
This is a race which often revolves around the top of the market, and I believe that it will again this year. Specifically, and apologies for the spoiler, I feel it’s between Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs, and I find it hard to envisage any other horse winning.
Bobs Worth won the RSA Chase last year in grand style and, in one run since, beat up a good field in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. The second horse there, Tidal Bay, was spotting the winner six pounds and only went down by three and a half lengths. But, for me, the winner was value for more than the official margin. First Lieutenant was another five lengths back in third that day, and the minor medallists went on to frank the form next time out.
Indeed, they finished first and second in the Lexus Chase, a race which is growing to pre-eminence in Gold Cup trial terms, and one in which the previous ante-post second favourite, Flemenstar, was ‘outed’ as a probably non-stayer.
Whilst one swallow may not make a summer – and one rapid emptying not make a stamina doubt – the evidence does suggest that the extra quarter mile on tougher terrain and in a likely faster-paced contest will undo Flemenstar, should he show up. For the record, he cruised and then emptied in the Lexus, eventually claiming bronze.
A short head back in fourth – beaten three-quarters of a length in total – was Sir Des Champs. This normally reliable fencer had bungled and blundered his way around Leopardstown in most uncharacteristic fashion, and yet was still staying on best of all. Assuming his jumping improves, this run screamed Gold Cup. At least, my eardrums were left ringing to that tune.
As for failing to register a 1-2-3 finish on his last start before Cheltenham, firstly, he may run again yet; secondly, he was denied that only by a fag paper verdict; and, thirdly, he won the Jewson at the Festival last year (and the Martin Pipe hurdle the year before), emphasising his taste for Cleeve Hill and its assorted impediments.
Let’s get back to Tidal Bay. After all, he came out best in the Hennessy on strict pounds-for-lengths; and he won the Lexus from talked up horses; so, surely, we ought to take him very seriously for the Gold Cup.
Well, yes and no. Yes, that form puts him bang there. And yes, he does seem to be in rude health. But he’s twelve. And I can’t help but feel that it would be a damning indictment on the ‘new generation’ if he prevailed. Allied to my moral argument (which, clearly, is no way to wager) is a perception that things have to fall absolutely spot on – as they did in the Lexus – for TB to grab gold.
That Lexus – incredible race that it was – saw Flemenstar go from swaggering hero to stumbling zero in half a furlong. It also saw that other questionable stayer, First Lieutenant, battle on bravely but run out of puff. And it witnessed Sir Des Champs’ jockey mightily relieved it wasn’t a show jumping round.
In a nutshell, two stopped in front of him, and one rallied manfully after a woeful round of jumping and just fail to get up. No, I can’t have Tidal Bay: the sort of horse who will send you skint and break your heart in equal measure, as your love and wagers are (generally) unrequited.
And what of Long Run? Well, this much maligned (often by me) horse has done next to nothing wrong. His jockey does ok – and it’s his old man’s horse, so who are we to question riding arrangements – but Long Run does tend to clout one or two (or three). Despite that, he has a Gold Cup and the most recent renewal of the King George to his name, as well as a third place in last season’s Gold Cup – when beaten just three lengths.
So why don’t I like his chance? Well, I do respect his chance. And he has form to go close. And I think he’ll probably be a shorter price on the day. But. But… that pilot. Sam Waley-Cohen. Not for me. Not one iota.
And, of the top order in the market, what about Silviniaco Conti? He’s surely a flatterer and has it all to prove to my eye. He’s beaten up small fields on flat tracks, and was beaten the only time he came to Cheltenham (and outside the Festival at that). Yes, he beat Long Run, but he had match fitness on his side that day. I very much doubt he’ll beat him in mid-March on Gold Cup Friday.
Of the outsiders with Cheltenham Festival form, First Lieutenant won the Neptune in 2011, and was second to Bobs Worth in last year’s RSA Chase. On better ground, he’s respected as a place chance again. The Giant Bolster proved a lot of doubters wrong with his gritty display in last year’s Gold Cup, beating Long Run and finding the galvanised Synchronised only a couple of lengths too good. He’s worthy of a second look at 25′s, especially if the ground starts to dry up. He’ll have hated this deep winter turf.
And then there’s Hunt Ball. He’s got to prove he stays this far, and that he’s good enough. But he ran a nice second on bad ground in the Kempton running of the Peterborough Chase over Christmas and, on better ground, he’ll probably run better than a 33/1 shot.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Tips
So there you have it. Plenty of horses with ostensible chances, but a two horse race for me. Quite simply, I feel that if Bobs Worth doesn’t win the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup, then Sir Des Champs will.
Long Run is respected, as is to a lesser degree Tidal Bay. Silvianiaco Conti is, I believe, the sheep in wolf’s clothing: a toothless pretender in the context of this sort of a race. (And I hope I’m right because that sort of statement can make a person look really very silly indeed!)
Outsiders worth a second glance – and expected to improve on their seasonal showings to date on better ground – are The Giant Bolster and Hunt Ball.
Selection: Bobs Worth 3/1 general
Next Best: Sir Des Champs 5/1 general
Outsider: The Giant Bolster 25/1 general
Who are your fancies for the Gold Cup, and why? Leave a comment and let us know.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Preview, Trends and Tips,
22 Responses to Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Preview, Trends and Tips
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I really enjoyed this article, probably because I egree with your assessment on pretty well all these horses. Having said that I have twice lost betting against Silvianaco Conti, but I put that down to the expertise of Ruby Walsh. If Ruby was riding Long Run then I might well have a different opinion!
Ian L
January 10, 2013 at 11:45 pm
Before I comment about this I feel I need to say I bet with a betting bank that I makes no difference to me if I win or lose ( this relates to a comment I made about Michael Chopra). Anyway , I backed Hunt Ball for the Gold Cup after his Nam win last year as I loved the fairytale of his season. Ten months on, I doubt if that will come off, but I have in my opinion a reasonable place shout which is ok for me. I think the main three without any originality are Bobs Worth, Long Run,and Sir Des Champs in that order. I don’t see TGB troubling anybody and Hunt Ball with the best of the rest. Not really a gauntlet thrown down Matt, more of a dull virtual agreement.
My utmost dull apologies.
Chris
January 11, 2013 at 1:39 am
Course Form,Distance Form,form on an undulatng track,prefers left handed,spring form,still potentially improving at 25/1 it has to be The Giant Bolster!
Ian
January 11, 2013 at 7:16 am
very interesting Matt-I guess the fly in the ointment this year which makes it so fascinating is just what the state of the ground is going to be like.Personally I am very keen on Tidal Bay and Sir DC but all will depend on the ground.
george
January 11, 2013 at 9:14 am
Some very sound reasoning there Matt. You may well be right. Again though, I think the going is critical, and if this March is anything like previous recent years we’ll be approaching our early summer (April time) and I suspect the ground will be good. The Giant Bolster has improved since last year and I think conditions will be perfect for him (or am I just trying to convince myself because I’ve backed him at a big price !).
Cheers
Lucky
John Lennox
January 11, 2013 at 9:50 am
Ah another Tidal doubter. If you ignored his age you would have his profile down as a rapidly improving horse. And lets be honest he has hardly put it in since his novice days so probably has few “real” miles on the clock. Stuff about ability to go on the ground is BS, having won at Chelt and Aintree on good over far shorter. As for needing everything to fall into place…well, its happened three times already this season against some top flight opponents and over further he will only widen the gap
Mark
January 11, 2013 at 9:59 am
Fantastic read,great insight into the top race of the festival. In my opinion it’s going to be a 1-2 for Gigginstown with Sir Des Champs winning and First Lieutenant following him home. SDC,with all the bad slow jumps in the Lexus will love the quicker pace on better ground in March. Have him backed for the gold cup since last year.
Tom Quinn
January 11, 2013 at 11:28 am
Excellent piece Matt, thank you. Had a nibble at Hunt Ball a while back. You never know!
Ronnie Combo
January 11, 2013 at 7:31 pm
Backing Bobs Worth flys against one of the strongest trends in the Gold Cup and that is G1 3m+ Chases form of both the Lexus and King George its a long time since the winner took Part in niether of these races and for that reason i cant have him as the winner although i agree with your summary of the contenders i think the Lexus will gain provide us with the winner Sir Des Champs is my best guess at this point in time as long as his jumping improves but that might come with better ground
bob smith
January 12, 2013 at 1:14 am
Great article Matt, I nearly missed it. You posted at 11:00pm, by the time i checked the site again after work there was a number of posts above it so i didn’t notice it. Surely you could advertise these articles a bit more(in place of your happy new year post. maybe) as they are my favorite kind on your site and i would hate to miss one. Sorry for the critism, regarding the gold cup, Bobs Worth for me. my favorite horse in training.
huey
January 12, 2013 at 12:04 pm
Matt, I did a similar analysis of this race last year and basically got it down to a horse that had won a Grade 1 chase in the previous 12 months. It worked for every year except Best Mate 2002 but there hadn’t been a festival in 2001. The next failure was Cool Dawn in 1998 but that wasn’t too surprising. The track was as hard as a road and I picked Cool Dawn to win on the going alone.
I’d agree with your caveats re: age also.
Of those in the entries list Bob’s Worth, Kauto Stone, Long Run, Quel Esprit,Riverside Theatre, Silviniaco Conti, Sir Des Champs, Sizing Europe are qualifiers.
Bob’s Worth and Long Run are the obvious ones but I’d be interested in Kauto Stone as I think he runs like an out and out stayer and don’t think Kempton suited him at all.
Kevin
January 14, 2013 at 1:08 pm
Hard to disagree with any of this, but it would be a boring sport without differing opinions and gut feel. The best horse in the race by some way is Long Run – who let’s not forget ran the fastest ever GC in 2011 beating Denman & Long Run. Concerns are that he had a hard race at Kempton and that might just leave its mark. That and the jockey of course. Watching replays of last years’ GC he lost ground at 10 fences through jockey indecision and he got it tactically wrong. That said, he still beat the best in the fastest time ever with Waley-Cohen up top and neither BW or SDC are as good as they were.
Lee
January 19, 2013 at 10:17 am
Totally dismissed the winner Silviniaco Conti. Good job
George Brookes
January 19, 2013 at 11:45 pm
If that wins George, I WILL give up betting for three months!
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 20, 2013 at 9:20 am
I actually think George may be onto something. I think Silviniaco Conti is the main danger to Bobs Worth to be honest. When Nicholls puts one away like he as done with this one, you have to take notice I think. Sir Des Champs will battle it out with Long Run for 3rd perhaps. I backed Bobs Worth at 5-1 earlier in the season so happy enough with that ‘cos I think he will win all being well.
cheers Man
Man
January 30, 2013 at 8:40 pm
Sam Waley Cohen is one of the most talented amateurs I have ever seen who gets on really well with LONG RUN and who is to say lightning does not strike twice,this is an each way steal.ANDY>
ANDY
February 21, 2013 at 2:19 pm
Its a two horse race between Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth.Sir DesChamps last win at Leopardstown was only 5 seconds faster than the hunter chase over same distance on the card.The Giant Bolster has no chance on ratings and could not win last years GC which was the worst inliving memory.Long Run has no chance either as he has regressed from 178 to his current mark of 172.He beat a 162 horse a neck in a shocking King George and will be nowhere near placing.An outsider than has scope for further improvement is Cape Tribulation and at 25/1 has a chance.The banker at Cheltenham is Salsify as he was the hunter who did that time at Leopardstown.He will win the Foxhunters in a canter.
Steve
March 6, 2013 at 12:31 pm
I totally agree with the above in that Cape Tribulation has good ew chance. I backed at 33/1 6 weeks ago. Sir Des Champs and Long Run would be the 2 from the top 4 in betting. I also think it’s very unlikely that the first 4 in the betting will all run well, at least 1 maybe 2 will disappoint. Cape Tribulation is improving plus is not ground dependant. If it came up very soft on the day it won’t inconvenience him either. He will stay every yard of the trip
judge gambler
March 6, 2013 at 2:36 pm
Sivianaco for me, he jumps well stays well and has speed. He has done nothing wrong this season winning well and if he handles the undulations he will be in with a shout. He was staying on well on his only run over hurdles at Cheltenham and hee is rated 172. The danger for me is Bobs W. He has good form at cheltenham and stays and jumps. They have raced each other before and there is not much in it. I just hope they are there at the end and not another outsider like last year. I put him on at 16s with sprinter sacre at evens a couple of months ago. E.W double. Wish me luck.
Gary
March 14, 2013 at 11:48 pm
Good luck Gary. That ‘outsider’ last year was about 7/1 when it won. Silviniaco Conti may be a similar price tomorrow.
Matt
Matt Bisogno
March 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm
You are right!!! McCoy gave him some ride. He was pushing him from a long long way but he got there. I cant see Long Run improving on last year but you never know. Good luck tomorrow i think it could be a crackin race!!!
Gary
March 15, 2013 at 12:07 am
My luck run out Matt!!!! Gutted SC fell because he was looking like he had a great chance. He struggled with the downhill fence first circuit and wasnt too clever second time round. As Ruby said you gotta jump. I thought when SC went down Bobs W had no chance but Barry had a great ride on him and he battle well.Great run from SDC and Long Run just unlucky. I will keep following SC but whether he runs again at PP is another thing. I hope Nicholls tries him again. All the best for now Matt….
Gary Isaac
March 15, 2013 at 7:48 pm