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Double Dutch, 12th May 2014
They say that when you're hot, you're hot and when you're not, you're not! Apart from that being a lesson in the glaringly obvious, it also suggests that I'm on a bit of rolling simmer.
The results from last week of no winning doubles in six days and a subsequent loss don't tell the whole story, I'm afraid. I picked the winner of one race every single day and I had at least one placed horse (5 runners-up!) in the second race, meaning it was certainly a week of near misses.
In a week of six winners (and some at pretty decent prices, including Saturday's 4/1 shot), I'd have expected one or two doubles. It was, however, not to be, but despite the loss of the full 12 points, I'm pretty happy with the selection process. I hope you are, too!
Saturday's results were as follows:
Hassle: won at 9/4 (adv 4/1)
Zipp: u/p at 15/8 (adv 7/2)
Annecdote: 3rd at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
Winning Express: u/p at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
232 winning selections from 811 = 28.61%
75 winning bets in 213 days = 35.21%
P/L : +55.94pts (+13.26% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A new week will hopefully bring about a change in fortunes, starting with the...
Which on face value, as a race for amateur riders, doesn't immediately look like the best betting prospect, but I do like the chances of Deep Resolve notching his second win in just his fourth career start. He has the benefit of a top amateur jockey on his back today (Simon Walker) and his trainer Alan Swinbank is in good form at present, having rattled up 5 winners from 11 in the last week alone. The yard has a good record when stepping horses up in trip after just a small number of runs with these unexposed types often catching the opposition unaware over a longer distance.
Deep Resolve has one win from three races so far and I expect him to add to that tally today at around 7/4 BOG (although Coral are offering 15/8 as I type!). I'm not concerned about the step up to a mile and a half, as there's plenty of stamina from his dam's side. One horse that should stay the trip, however, is Newgate Queen who actually drops back half a furlong from her run at Newcastle a fortnight ago. She finished third that day on soft ground and was beaten by less than 2.5 lengths behind Stat of the Day winner, Sirpertan.
The slight drop in trip, an easing of ground conditions and a 7lb claim from her jockey today should all conspire to a decent effort which will hopefully make a mockery of her current odds of 7/1 BOG with Boylesports.
Not the easiest to decipher on paper, but I'm hoping that the application of a hood will help Miss Tiger Lily regain some of her old form. She's 2 from 7 on the A/W and she's 2 from 4 here at Lingfield, including one win over course and distance. Luke Morris is in the saddle today, which I see as a positive as he's 2 from 5 on board this one, who now runs off 68, some 3lbs lower than her last winning mark (C&D last July). She's a tentative selection, but probably the best choice here at 3/1 BOG.
There's little to choose between the favourite Menelik and 2nd favourite Amantius and there are question marks about both of them. Menelik might be found wanting for stamina if they go off too quickly, but recent form suggests that other than Miss Tiger Lily, there seems to be little pace in the contest and Menelik does well in the more tactical affairs. He's in good consistent form, finishing 132 in his last three starts and is only 2lbs higher than his last win, which was here at Lingfield at the end of February.
It's his recent form and the fact we know he's fit that makes him the pick at 2/1 BOG ahead of Amantius who hasn't run for six months now, but is carrying 4lbs more than his last run and 10lbs higher than his last win. Add that to the lay-off and this being his first run at Lingfield means I doubt he'll take this one.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Deep Resolve / Menelik @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet & PP)
Deep Resolve / Miss Tiger Lily @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Bet365, SkyBet & PP)
Newgate Queen / Menelik @ 22/1 (7/1 & 15/8 : Boylesports)
Newgate Queen / Miss Tiger Lily @ 31/1 (7/1 & 3/1 : Boylesports)