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Double Dutch, 16th May 2014
There are really only so many ways you can keep saying the same thing, and needless to say, I came out of yesterday’s races a frustrated man once again!
For the second time in two days, Hold ‘Em Cowboy was an easy winner at Perth, coasting home by 7 lengths on this occasion and our 15/8 BOG was made to look very big, as he demolished the field, coming home at 11/10.
Unfortunately, for the second day in a row, he was only running for my/our pride, after we’d been beaten by a head a half hour earlier.
I’d decided to take on the odds on favourite in a 4-runner race, where the “other horse” wasn’t realistically expected to challenge and was priced (16/1) accordingly. The outsider made it to the 5th fence before freeing itself from its jockey, leaving our pair against the favourite.
Almost inevitably, the McCoy-driven jolly won, but only just. He only headed our Kilbree Kid very late in the piece, scraping home by just a head after a 3 mile slog on Soft ground. I didn’t think the odds were right pre-race at 5/6 and 5/1 respectively and we were very unlucky not to bag a nicely priced winner who had made all the running.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Kilbree Kid: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/1)
Knockanrawley: u/p at 9/2 (adv 11/4)
Hold ‘Em Cowboy: won at 11/10 (adv 15/8)
Be My Deputy: u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
235 winning selections from 827 = 28.42%
75 winning bets in 217 days = 34.56%
P/L : +47.94pts (+11.15% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
No Hold ‘Em Cowboy to bail me out today (:D ), so we’ll crack on with these for Friday:
Freddie Tylicki has ridden two winners from the last three James Fanshawe rides he has taken on this track and bids to improve that record with Gone Dutch, a former course and distance winner (September 2013 with Freddie on his back!).
Gone Dutch is a consistent sort with a record of 158112 in handicaps to date and was only beaten by three parts of a length on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury five weeks ago. He was entitled to need a run after a 6-month absence from the track and that run should stand him in good stead here today, where he’s currently available at 3/1 BOG in several places.
Stat-wise, he’s 1/1 here with that C&D victory, he’s 1/1 at this level and 3/6 when Mr Tylicki is on board. All three wins have come in smaller fields, so a tactical affair shouldn’t bother him too much either.
I’m going to pair him up with Velox, who might actually be a little long at 5/1 BOG here. This one was progressive last season, despite being beaten in all three handicap contests since winning a maiden in his second race (51224 last season) and is expected to continue his improvement this season. He does have a fairly lengthy absence (37 weeks!) to overcome, but Luca Cumani is pretty good at getting his horses to run fresh, so that’s not a major concern just yet.
The going and the trip will be fine for him here and there’s some value in the price to boot.
A cracking Listed contest tucked away on a Friday evening in South Lanarkshire might not get the exposure it deserves (see here), but its roll of honour contains some useful types (including the likes of Collier Hill, Allied Powers and Red Cadeaux).
This year’s renewal looks a decent one and one where I fancy Special Meaning to land the spoils at 7/2 BOG with Coral. She’s in absolutely cracking form, 6 wins from 10 on turf, including 5 from her last eight starts.
She’s 2 from 2 on Good to Soft ground, 2/2 here at Hamilton, 4/6 for today’s 10f trip, she has one win and one place from her two starts in Listed company and as a 4yr old filly racing against older boys, she’s getting weight all round.
Special Meaning defied a 205-day absence to win a Listed contest at Goodwood last time out (13 days ago) when she made all and stayed on well to score by a length. She should strip fitter for that run and if allowed to dominate proceedings again, will be tough to catch/beat.
My second horse here is Godolphin’s Bolingbroke, a recent French import making his UK racing debut. he comes here with a decent record in France ( 3 x 1st, 1 x 2nd and 2 x 3rd in eight outings) and it’s interesting to see him compete at this level first time up in the UK.
More telling, perhaps, is the 200-mile journey being made by the resurgent Kieran Fallon from York races to ride this one horse. Bolingbroke was an easy winner last time out (1m4f on heavy ground at Saint Cloud for Andre Fabre back in September) and a repeat of that run might see him land a surprise (to some!) at 9/2 BOG (SkyBet)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Gone Dutch / Special Meaning @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Coral)
Gone Dutch / Bolingbroke @ 21/1 (3/1 & 9/2 : SkyBet & Coral)
Velox / Special Meaning @ 26/1 (5/1 & 7/2 : Coral)
Velox / Bolingbroke @ 32/1 (5/1 & 9/2 : Coral)