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Double Dutch, 22nd July 2014
Talk about going from the sublime to the ridiculous? On Saturday, I backed some good priced winners from Matt’s Saturday preview and I had a very nice treble from Stat of the Day and Double Dutch.
Yesterday was a whole new kettle of fish, I had three horses I fancied who then all got beat, the SotD horse ran a poor race and more pertinently to readers of this column, I couldn’t even find one winner from four for the Double Dutch.
A runner-up and 4th of 7 runners was the result from both races yesterday and the nearest we came to a winner was Real Jazz’s half-length defeat at Ayr, getting outstripped in the dash for the line.
That result was largely irrelevant anyway, as Fantasy King had already been beaten by a good five lengths at Cartmel fifty minutes earlier.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Fantasy King: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 15/8)
Vinnie My Boy: u/p at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Real Jazz: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 15/86/4)
Next Stop: u/p at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
295 winning selections from 1043 = 28.28%
98 winning bets in 272 days = 36.0316%
P/L : +71.66pts (+13.12% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I shall be hoping/looking for better from these runners on Tuesday…
Best Boy Barney seems to have found a winning mentality/habit of late and he comes here aiming to defy a 5lb rise in weights on his bid to land his fourth win in his last five outings since being fitted with blinkers and represents Jeremy Scott, whose yard is in good form at present, having had four winners and one runner-up from just seven runners this month and Best Boy Barney wasn’t one of those runners!
The blinkers are in place again today, as is regular 3lb claimer jockey Matt Griffiths who is 3/7 on this horse and there’s no stamina issues and BBB has stayed/been placed over a 2f further than this as recently as March of this year. I’m not convinced the extra 5lbs will stop him, especially with the way he finished strongly last time out and although we’re not going to be able to retire off this one, 13/8 BOG looks about right here.
He would probably be a lot shorter in the market but for the presence of Long Wave, a very consistent performer who has only failed to make the frame once in his last nine starts, winning three times in that run. He is proven over this trip and beyond (1334313 at 3m and further) and has also benefitting from an addition of equipment: a tongue tie in his case, with which he is 131.
Long Wave is also up in weight, but is still an improving type with seemingly more to give and at a similarly priced 7/4 BOG (2/1 with Stan James), this could turn into an interesting scrap and it’s interesting to note that he beat Jeremy Scott’s veteran Porters War by over two lengths last time out, with that 12 yr old warrior going on to record another runner-up berth and a win since losing to Long Wave.
Gavin McPherson doesn’t have the biggest string of horses, but the ones he does have seem to be in great form at present. He has had just six runners in the last fortnight, but they have finished 131132 with the first of those wins coming from Our Maimie who is a 5/2 shot to record back to back victories. She beat Cool Baranca by a length and a quarter at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago and the latter has since franked the form with a convincing 6 lengths victory at Cartmel as recently as last Saturday.
Our Maimie is up 4lbs for that win, but she did seem to have plenty left in the locker last time out and I think she has a really good chance here.
Standing in her way, however, is Ereyna who was highly impressive when winning by six lengths at Towcester last time out and a repeat of that run would probably be enough to take this race at Our Maimie’s expense and the market seems to agree as she’s the current favourite here. I do have some reservations about her in so much as she’s untried beyond 2m 5.5f, the ground might be on the fast side for her and she hasn’t run for seven weeks and might be rusty.
In her favour, is the fact that she’s the youngest and least exposed of the runners here today and whilst I’m convinced she’ll beat Our Maimie, I think she’s easily capable of beating the other three runners home which will hopefully also land us the forecast for good measure. Ereyna can currently be backed at 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Best Boy Barney / Ereyna @ 6.88/1 (13/8 & 2/1 : Coral)
Best Boy Barney / Our Maimie @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : BetFred, BetVictor & Hills)
Long Wave / Ereyna @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : BoyleSports, Ladbrokes & Coral)
Long Wave / Our Maimie @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor & Hills)