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Double Dutch, 7th February 2014
No joy yesterday, I’m afraid, but you can’t win them all! We got our runners in the right order in the first race, but they were beaten into 2nd & 3rd places by a flyer who made all to win by just over a length.
And that was as good as it got, for an hour later Winterwell did indeed beat Rafaaf by 3/4 length, but the prize was only to avoid the wooden spoon, as they were disappointingly the last two home of seven runners!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Spreadable: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Crisis Averted: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Winterwell: u/p at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Rafaaf: u/p at 11/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
141 winning selections from 499 = 28.26%
47 winning doubles in 133 days = 35.34%
P/L : +17.55pts (+6.65% ROI)
There’s daytime jumps action and an evening A/W meeting on offer in the UK today, let’s take one race from each:
Harry Fry’s horses have been in stellar form over the winter with 9 winners from 21 in the last two months. He’s 3 from 10 here at Kempton and Triangular is his only runner today. A dual winner in the mud in France, he shaped well on his yard debut last time out, when he was 2nd at Doncaster and only beaten by just over a length despite needing a run after a break of 7 months. If he comes on for that run, the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from Stan James might look very big later.
And if we’re looking at trainers in form, we have to consider any of Venetia Williams’ runners at present. Her horses are 8/26 in the last week alone. Twenty of them have been ridden by Aidan Coleman (7 winners!) and he’s on board Summery Justice here, a horse who has won at this trip and has won here in the past. He’s a lightly raced horse for his age: just 15 runs and he’s 10yrs old, so he hasn’t been overworked. He’s won four times to date including a couple on the mud.
Summery Justice looked like he was coming back to his best when 3rd last time out at Bangor and has run well in the past in better races than this off higher marks and could be well treated at the weights here today. This makes him a real contender at a generally available 7/2 BOG.
Ealain Aibrean would look an unappealing prospect on paper, still being a maiden after 12 attempts to get off the mark, but a recent switch to David Evans’ yard seem to have brought about some better form and consistency to boot, finishing 2323 in her four starts since relocating. Based on her recent form, she looks pretty well treated at the weights and could make it luck 13 today today at odds of 11/4 BOG, which look quite generous based on her last few runs.
The 2/1 favourite (Stan James) Blacke Forest is the most likely fly in the ointment here, and comes to this one off the back of a runner-up finish on debut at Kempton five days ago. She was beaten by a good three and a half lengths that day but is entitled to come on and progress for the benefit of having had an outing. She’s related to a couple of useful one mile winners, suggesting she’ll need further in time, but this could be a stepping stone in the right direction for her.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Summery Justice / Blacke Forest @ 12/1 (10/3 & 2/1 Stan James)
Summery Justice / Ealain Aibrean @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 BetVictor & Coral)
Triangular / Blacke Forest @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 Stan James)
Triangular / Ealain Aibrean @ 21.5/1 (5/1 >& 11/4 Stan James)