Chriseti - bids to double up in Anjou Challenge

The race is the latest in a European 10 race competition for the Crystal Cup, which ends at Cheltenham in December. It is also the world’s longest cross country race, over some four miles four and a half furlongs, and featuring 49 obstacles, and the €100,000 prize has attracted some of the top horses in this niche entertainment.

The home team will be aiming to head off a strong British and Irish challenge led by Nick Williams trained Maljimar and Willie Mullins’ Uncle Junior.

Maljimar, trained by Nick Williams in Devon and ridden by James Reveley, won the Fontainebleau leg of the series, beating Quezac De La Roche (Francois Cottin) by a length and a half, with Quetzal Bay (Christian Le Galliard) and L’Aubergiste (Jean Luc Guillochon) third and fourth respectively. Reveley partners Maljimar again, and the other three also line up tonight.

Uncle Junior took the Irish leg, the La Touche Cup, in the appalling slop at the Punchestown Festival last month. Patrick Mullins rode him that day, but is replaced tonight by his cousin Emmet, also a Mullins. Saddler’s Storm, who finished third at Punchestown receiving a stone in weight, re-opposes again, but this time the two are at level weights.

Also travelling to France are the second and third horses home in this year’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase at The Festival in March – A New Story, trained by Michael Hourigan and ridden by Adrian Heskin) and Wedger Pardy (Kim Bailey) with leading amateur Oliver Greenall taking the ride. Wedger Pardy will be Bailey’s first ever runner in France.

Ireland’s only success in the race came in 2010 when Another Jewel, trained by Denis Murphy took the prize. He came home seventh last year, and Murphy hopes the booking of Davy Russell will help his 10 year old. He said, “If you can get the champion jockey you might as well do it.”

At the moment that’s handled by Highflyer Productions, who yesterday took the step of suspending two senior staff members from working on racing programmes for the foreseeable future. We can take that as meaning until Channel 4 awards the production contract.

Highflyer has alleged that Denise Large, a company director and Sophie Veats, who has produced The Morning Line since its revamp last year, have been connected to a bid from a rival company. It’s well known that both Sunset + Vine, who produced racing programmes for the BBC and IMG, the world’s largest independent sports production company, are keen to secure the contract.

Highflyer Chairman John Fairley said, “We are deeply involved in preparing what we hope will be a very strong bid for the new Channel 4 racing contract, covering the next four years. In the circumstances in which we find ourselves with Denise and Sophie, Highflyer felt it better for all sides that they should not work for us during the period of the tender.”

Channel 4 had no concerns that the decision to move Large and Veats off racing work would diminish the service they receive from Hightower. A spokesman said. “We are aware of the matter and are fully assured and confident of Highflyer’s ability to deliver the 2012 horseracing contract.”

With coverage of such prestigious events as the Grand National, Royal Ascot, the Derby and British Champions Day changing stables next year, Channel 4 is sure to be looking for some innovative ideas to keep its racing coverage moving forward. It is what the bids have to say in this area that will be a key factor in which organisation is successful.

Nicky Henderson

NICKY HENDERSON (6 winners from his last 14 runners, 43% strike-rate): The jumps season proper might be over, but you’d forgive the Henderson yard if they wanted to take things a little easier after the season they’ve just had – wrong. The Seven Barrows team have seemingly got a whole batch of summer jumpers they want to go to war with and like a lot of NH yards at present are taking advantage of the softer ground for this time of year. A double form the two runners they sent down to Fontwell on Wednesday, while 9 of their last 15 runners have finished third or better, and although Barry Geraghty might not be around as much this gives the likes of David Bass and Andrew Tinkler the chance to grab a few winners. Of their 6 recent winners, they are continuing where they left off last season with their NH Flat runners as two of the 4 have come in that arena, while looking ahead there seems to be no let up with plenty of entries over the coming days.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Perth (3 from 12, 25%), Ludlow (34 from 95, 36%), Aintree (19 from 122, 16%), Bangor (14 from 55, 25%), Uttoxeter (10 from 38, 26%), Market Rasen (14 from 33, 42%), Stratford (8 from 36, 22%)

ROBIN BASTIMAN (4 winners from his last 11 runners, 36% strike-rate):  Their stable star, Boderlescott (entered in the Temple Stakes – May 26^th), ran a great race to finish second in a conditions race at Chester last week and that run showed connections they still have plenty to go to war with in the main sprints. Add in that the overall form of the yard could not be better and after flagging up the stable last week they’ve since fired in a 25/1 winner at Thirsk on Saturday night. They are now +£26 for the season and with 6 winners they are already well on their way to bettering last season’s tally of 15 – their best yet. Keep an eye for Cannon Bolt as his recent Thirsk flop was too bad to be true, and might just have come a bit too soon after his easy Musselburgh win. Jockey Daniel Tudhope could be another clue to how well they fancy one as his riding figures for the yard in recent weeks read: 1-1-2-1, including that 25/1 success. The only downside is that they don’t seem to have too many engaged this week – still maybe the bookies will forget about their good form when they do have a few more runners! Upcoming entries and track stats: Ripon (0 from 20), Thirsk (2 from 22, 9%), Haydock (0 from 10)

VENETIA WILLIAMS (8 winners from her last 26 runners, 31% strike-rate): Possibly no trainer in better form at present, and a Towcester treble on Monday backed that up. That’s already 11 now for the new jumps season, from just 31 runners, and considering how slow they started last term I guess Venetia is doing her best to avoid a repeat. With Aidan Coleman another of the new wave of jockeys really making a name for himself I suspect if things continue in this vain then he might be snapped up by one of the even bigger yards in seasons to come, but he’s been on all of their recent 10 winners and with plenty of those winning with easy you can expect them to go in again in the coming weeks. Obviously a lot of this current good spell is down to the very wet conditions around the country at the moment and although the flat boys might be suffering the NH handlers probably can’t believe their luck in having proper jumping ground at this time of the year. Upcoming entries and track stats: Ludlow (9 from 49, 18%), Aintree (3 from 63, 5%), Bangor (12 from 90, 13%), Uttoxeter (5 from 75, 7%), Stratford (3 from 26, 12%)

WILLIAM HAGGAS (7 winners from his last 25 runners, 28% strike-rate) : Vow, the stable’s big Oaks hope was an impressive winner of the Lingfield trial last weekend and despite wandering around in the closing stages she looks a filly on the upgrade and with the yard winning that Classic 12 months ago then everything points to a huge run – she’s now around 6/1 in the betting. In fact 4 of their last 13 runners have won, and despite Lordofthehouse being a tiny bit disappointing up at Thirsk on Saturday night, he only just failed to get up and will improve again once stepped up in trip. This good spell puts them on 12 winners already for the season, from just 55 runners – with a massive 65% of their runners finishing fourth or better. 86 has been their best-ever tally (2008), so they will have that in mind, but I suspect they will be happy to just better last season’s haul of 76. Over the past 5 seasons they’ve done by far the best with their 3 year-olds (172 winners), and with 9 of their 12 successes coming in that age bracket so far this term then it’s much the same in that respect.  Nothing new here, but keep a special eye for when the yard book Johnny Murtagh – his last 2 rides for the yard have been winning ones, while with York this week then it could pay to keep their runners on your side – they are 2 from 8 with their 2 year-olds and 4 from 18 with their 3 year-olds on the Knavesmire.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Salisbury (4 from 26, 15%), York (9 from 47, 19%), Newmarket (15 from 125, 12%)

MARK USHER (3 winners from his last 11 runners, 27% strike-rate): This yard got a mention last week and despite only having a handful of runners they did do the business for us with a 13/2 success at Nottingham last Friday. That puts them on 11 for the new season and well over a third of the way to bettering last season’s best-ever tally of 28 wins. Three of their last 4 seasons have ended in a positive level stakes profit and being +£4 at the moment things are heading in the same direction. The bulk of their winners have been with their older horses (8), but they are 1-from-3 with their juveniles too, so take that into account. David Probert gets a lot of action for the yard, as does Hayley Turner and the very promising Racheal Kneller, who has been on one of those recent three winners. I think I mentioned it last week too, but remember to keep an eye for any Epsom runners in the coming weeks – they are 2-from-5 at the Surrey venue in recent years. Upcoming entries and track stats: Salisbury (3 from 27, 11%), Newbury (2 from 30, 7%), Newmarket (0 from 3)

CHARLIE MANN (3 winners from his last 11 runners, 27% strike-rate): Only sent out 22 winners last season, and 20 the term before that, so you suspect 2012-13 will be a big season for the Mann team as they bid to get back on track. With 3 successes from their last 13 runners then things are looking good, and in fact 3 of their last 7 runners have gone in. Again, another yard that are making hay while the soft ground conditions continue and in young Gavin Sheehan they’ve got a very useful 7lb claimer to use at their disposal too – he’s been on all three recent winners for the yard. Those successes this season have also all been over hurdles, plus keep a look out for any that go to Ludlow on Thursday – they have a decent 24% strike-rate there at the moment, while in contrast they are 0-from-26 at Stratford in recent years and do have a few entered there on Sunday. Upcoming entries and track stats: Ludlow (8 from 34, 24%), Bangor (3 from 23, 13%), Stratford (0 from 26), Market Rasen (7 from 48, 15%)

DONALD McCAIN (7 winners from his last 27 runners, 26% strike-rate): With another Chester Cup win and then landing the old Swinton Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday the McCain yard became one of only three trainers to land both races, and the first to do so in the same season. So with these wins coming over both codes they’ve once again further advertised their claims as one of the best up-and-coming yards in the land, and I know I’ve said it before but I really expect them to start challenging Nicholls and Henderson in the trainer’s championship in the coming seasons. Jockey Jason Maguire is riding at the top of his game and looks set to give Richard Johnson a real run for his money for that second place in the jockey’s title race next season. In terms of numbers they are already 6 winners from just 28 runners over the sticks, and thanks to two Chester wins last week they are 2-from-6 on the level. With plenty of summer jumping on the horizon you can expect no let up from the McCain team, while they won’t be afraid to take on the big boys on the flat – especially in the staying or cup races.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Perth (8 from 28, 30%), York (0 from 1), Aintree (11 from 116, 9%), Hamilton (no runners) 

WILLIAM KNIGHT (3 winners from his last 16 runners, 19% strike-rate): With 13/2 and 11/1 winners lumped in with 9/4 and 15/8 winners of late then punters are certainly in front if they are following the Knight stable blind. In fact 10 of their last 17 runners have finished third or better and that now puts them on 8 for the new flat season. They are a yard that had been improving year-on-year until last season when they could only manage 13 winners, and considering they notched 34 the season before then you can guess how disappointed they must have been. With those problems now looking well and truly behind them it looks as if they are ready to kick-on again and with 3 of their last 6 seasons yielding a positive level stakes profit and that that are already in front this term then the signs are good. Based in West Sussex, you will find the bulk of their winners on the AW tracks, especially Kempton, and with their 4+year-olds, but it’s worth pointing out of the four AW courses it’s Wolverhampton they have the best strike-rate at (10-from-37, 27%). On the green stuff keep a look out for any Yarmouth runners as they are 6 from just 27 and boast a huge +£71 level stakes profit at the seaside venue, and the same applies to Folkestone – at track they are currently 4-from-11 at.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Salisbury (2 from 29, 7%), Newmarket (1 from 17, 6%), Newbury (3 from 37, 8%), Thirsk (0 from 2), Doncaster (0 from 15)

This Week’s Cold Trainers………..

STAN MOORE (50 days and 31 runners without a winner)

CLIVE COX (26 days and 33 runners without a winner)

 Click on a trainer’s name to see all their future entries

Sgt Reckless was a small chestnut coloured mare that became a US Marine during the Korean War. She was recruited into the Marine Corps late in 1952 by Lt Eric Pedersen, who had recognised a horse could bring great benefit to a team that had to be swiftly mobile whilst carrying heavy ammunition. Individual soldiers could carry just two or three of the shells fired from the recoilless rifle anti-tank gun, a horse as many as ten.

Pedersen searched for a suitable animal at Seoul racetrack, and found one owned by a young Korean who wanted money to pay for an artificial leg for his wounded sister. $250 saw a horse called Ah-Chim-Hai, “Flame of the Morning”, change hands. On their return to camp she was enlisted as Reckless, the nickname for the anti-tank rifle she was to help keep in service.

There was much to do before she could move up to the front. She had to learn how to take cover when under fire. Day to day care was in the hands of Platoon Sergeant Joseph Latham. He taught her that a tap on the front leg meant, “Get down.” He also trained her to make for a bunker when shells came over behind the lines. “We’d get incoming there, and they’d (the enemy) lay it on you. All I had to do was yell, ‘Incoming, incoming’ and she’d go.”

Generally, Reckless would carry six rounds of ammunition, more in extremis. On her first taste of action she travelled in a jeep trailer from the marines’ base at Changdan up to the firing zone. She soon overtook the soldiers hauling the gun up a hillside, and had delivered two loads of shells by the time they had set up. A problem with this weapon was that it had a huge back blast area where the hot gases were expelled when the rifle was fired. This made it impossible to conceal its firing position, and as a result, batteries would fire three or four rounds and move to another spot before the enemy could range in on them.

That wasn’t a problem for Reckless, but it did take her some time to calm down after firing because the noise of the guns spooked her. In time though, she settled, and it’s reported that at night she enjoyed a beer back at camp with the troops.

There was also plenty of work for Reckless when the platoon was out of the line for R+R. Reckless kept busy carrying reels of communication wire, which were paid out as she walked along.

By early 1953 the American troops were involved in many daylight raids, and on one day in February, Reckless is recorded as making 24 trips from the ammunition supply point up to the guns, carrying six rounds each time. Lt Pedersen reckoned she had covered 20 miles and carried 3,500lbs of ammunition. She was making two trips for each one by a marine, and carrying twice as much ammunition every time.

On an even longer day the mare managed 51 trips, carrying 386 rounds, or 9,000 lbs of explosive, covering a distance of over 35 miles. She picked up a couple of shrapnel wounds too, one over her eye and one on her flank.

Latham explained that the whole platoon came to love Reckless. “Reckless was pretty smart. She was no dummy, but you had to show her where to go. We walked with her the first couple of times, then she’d find her own way. If she got tired she’d take a little break, and then she’d move on. Everyone was good to her. They’d talk to her and give her treats.”

Pedersen was posted to another division, so his association with Reckless came to an end. He had bought her with his own money, but a whip round amongst the men raised more than enough to repay him. Although he accepted some of the money, most he left to be spent on Reckless herself. He and Latham discussed whether it would be possible for Reckless to be brought over to America once the war finished.

An early taste of sailing during an exercise led Latham to doubt it. First, Reckless was seasick, and when her rations ran out and she was reduced to a diet of cabbage and oatmeal she fell sick again. Somehow word reached land, and a small boat brought out fresh hay and barley and these soon led to a recovery.

In July 1953 a truce was signed, bringing the Korean War to an end, and by October, Pedersen and Latham had both returned home. They missed the ceremony in which Reckless was awarded her stripes. The marines had used some of the left over money collected to repay Pedersen to buy a scarlet and gold blanket, and at a parade, General Pate formally promoted Reckless to Sergeant.

Her exploits had also caught the attention of battalion commander Lt Col Andrew Geer, now in command of the unit to which Latham and Reckless were attached. His book Reckless: Pride of the Marines is the source of much of the material for this article.

Could a way be found to enable her to travel to America and be reunited with the marines she had served with? Letters to the Marine Corps HQ brought the response that as she was not government property, government funds could not be used to bring her there. But she was able to hitch a freebie from Yokohama to San Francisco on a ship of the Pacific Transport Lines after the company vice-president Stan Coppel read about her exploits.

On 10 November 1954 she landed, though there was a last minute hiatus when it was found she had eaten her blanket and decorations the night before reaching America. Fortunately there was enough time to have a replacement ready for her as she stepped ashore, where her former comrade Eric Pedersen was on hand to greet her.

Further accolades followed, and on 31 Aug Gen Pate again promoted Reckless, this time to Staff Sergeant. During her service she had been awarded two Purple Hearts, a Good Conduct Medal, a Presidential Unit Citation with star, the Korean Service Medal, National Defence Service Medal, Unites Nations Service Medal and the Republic of Korea Presidential Unit Citation. Like any other service member, Reckless wore her ribbons when on parade.

After her retirement with full military hours in November 1960 Reckless enjoyed eight years of retirement in line with the orders from Gen Shoup, head of the Marine Corps when she retired. “SSgt Reckless will be provided quarters and messing at Camp Pendleton Stables in lieu of retired pay.”

But her association with racing wasn’t over. On 10 November 1989, the 214th anniversary of the founding of the US Marine Corps, and 35 years on from her arrival in America, the first race at New York’s Aqueduct racecourse was named “The Sgt Reckless” in memory of Sgt Reckless, Korean War veteran.

Yesterday, another Sgt Reckless stepped out onto the turf and made a winning start. But he’ll have nothing like the life of the horse whose name he has taken.

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 16th May 2012

A quite bizarre selection yesterday, with the early 10/1 vanishing to 9/2, before drifting out to 13/2 again… And then the horse opened up 16/1 on course, before being backed into 12/1! In the event, Buckhorn Tom finished fifth and looked like he needs a much quicker race to show what – if any – talent he has.

Onwards, to the southerly figure of eight that is the…

3.10 Fontwell

I’m interested in Kim Bailey today at the Sussex track. In truth, Kim Bailey is a trainer I’m always interested in, and he’s in good nick at the moment. The Rainbow Hunter did him, me, and followers of Winning Trainers a nice favour last night when winning at 9/1, and I’m hoping he’s got more winners in store this afternoon.

As Fontwell, Bailey boasts figures of six winners from 22 runners and a 22.42 point profit. Over fences, he’s four from fifteen (27%), and in front to the tune of 8.75 units.

This afternoon, he has one chaser, Cinderella Rose. She’s been a bit disappointing… OK, she’s been awful… in her last two starts. But they were in higher grade handicap hurdles.

Here she tries fencing for the first time. She’ll need to take to it – of course – but Bailey is a master of training fencers, and he might expect her to be better than her hurdle mark of 121 eventually.

Sire Collonges looks her chief threat today but, granted she warms to the task, Cinderella Rose must have a squeak, at around the 11/4 mark (BOG).

Click here for the latest odds on the 3.10 Fontwell.

Dante Meeting, York Racecourse

Today hails the start of the three day Dante meeting on the Knavesmire in York, one of Britain’s most beautiful tracks.

As well as the second most important Derby trial, the Dante itself, there are another twenty races for us to get our teeth into, so I’ve pulled together a few facts and figures that might help.

York Draw

Firstly, the draw can be significant. That’s not to say it always is. But, in fields of 14+, it often plays a hand. So where to be ideally berthed?

Well, on the straight course, which hosts five and six furlong races, middle to high is usually the place to be.

On the seven furlong course, which begins up a dogleg chute to the straight course, there doesn’t seem too much clarity – at least on my research – about where to be, though low may just shade it. Essentially, the draw shouldn’t be the reason your horse doesn’t win over seven.

In big field handicaps over a distance of between a mile and a mile and a half, low are generally favoured when there’s a decent gallop. Note that when they go slow, and stack up, the low drawn horses can get boxed in and concede first run to wider drawn horses. So do check the pace setup of the race, if you’re able to.

If that didn’t more hiinder than help, let’s move on…

York Trainers

As regular readers will know, I like my trainers for courses, and especially for the big meetings. Most of the content I’ve written on this this season has been housed inside the Betfolio membership site, but for this week’s meeting I’m sharing my views more widely.

Of course, as with everything else, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it is at least a nod and a wink in the right direction.

So, my four to follow on the Knavesmire this week are… Mick Easterby, Silvester Kirk, Richard Fahey, and Saeed bin Suroor.

However, I will only be tracking their fancied handicap runners. (I define fancied as 16/1 or shorter)

Over the last five Dante meetings, this quartet has won nineteen such handicaps from 84 runners, and generated a surplus of 88 points.

Today, their potential qualifiers – depending how the odds go – are (current qualifiers in bold italics, do check nearer the time if you’re able to):

1.30 – Majestic Dream (currently 40/1), Space War (22/1), Area Fifty One (10/1), Flag Officer (4/1)

2.00 – Valery Borzov (25/1), Kaldoun KIngdom (25/1), Coolminx (11/1)

3.35 – Mica Mika (6/1)

4.45 – Nameitwhatyoulike (9/1), Baccarat (11/2)

**

The other thing to note about Yorkshire trainers is how much they LOVE a win at York, and again, especially at the big meetings. This, obviously, shouldn’t surprise us. But there does still seem to be something of a southern bias when looking at handicaps, and this manifests itself most profitably in the lowest class races at this meeting, the Class 4 handicaps.

Basically, the Newmarket-based Group-class wolves running in handicap sheep’s clothing are found in the better handicaps. But the ‘weaker’ divisions are often fought for amongst the local chaps… and often at rewarding odds.

In fact, for this system, I want to guarantee the odds would reward each way support, so I favoured horses priced between 6/1 and all the way up to 40′s. Again, from an each way perspective, I was only interested in races with at least twelve runners, thus paying a quarter the odds for placed qualifiers.

And finally, I found that the boys out-performed the girls (as they generally do in any racing system), and that younger horses were clearly the place to focus.

The upshot of all that leads to a focus on:

 - 3 – 5yo’s
- Male horses only
- 12+ runner Class 4 handicaps
- Yorkshire-based trainers

Now, when betting at decent prices like this, one must expect fairly taxing losing runs. However, backing each way can be rewarding and take the sting out of the barren spells.

Specifically, since 2008, there have been eight winners from 52 qualifiers (15.38%) at the May Dante meeting, for a profit of 93.5 points. Backing each way increases the strike rate to 32.69% (17 placed from 52), and the profit to 136.88 points, albeit from double the stakes (for win and place, of course).

Today, the following will represent this angle:

3.35 – Eagle Rock, The Fun Crusher, King Kurt, and Mica Mika.

**

Of course, you’ll find more help elsewhere on geegeez in your quest for York winners.

Try Well I Declare, for a start.

Mal has been through the cards for the most pertinent angles, and a further breakdown of the draw.

You can read that here: Well I Declare.

********

And finally, on a completely different note, an update on the Geegeez Racing Club horse, Khajaaly.

For those who don’t know, Khajaaly runs in the colours of geegeez.co.uk, and is owned by a group of site readers. He had his first run for us back on 4th August 2010, and since that day at Newcastle, he’s represented us nineteen times.

Most of those runs have been at his ‘spiritual home’ of Wolverhampton, where he has an excellent record for us of three wins, two seconds, two thirds, and two fourths from twelve starts.

Those three wins came at odds of 25/1 (!), 3/1, and 8/1, and we’ve had many a good day at Dunstall Park, and elsewhere along the way.

Earlier this year, a couple of things happened which changed the way the racing club was to be run.

Firstly, the administrative challenge of a group of fifty members was too much to handle alongside everything else I have on my plate (not complaining, just saying!), and so we decided to move to a smaller group of just ten members.

And secondly, since around the middle of last year, Khajaaly had developed a lump on his leg. It didn’t seem to be troubling him – and indeed it wasn’t troubling him – but it was growing.

The vet examined him and took x-rays and it transpired that he had a bone tumour. Whilst this was benevolent, it did begin to cause him discomfort in that it was a big enough size.

Ultimately, it was necessary to operate at about the same time that the club year ended. So, we sent Khajaaly to the sales ring with the intention of buying him back. An under-bidder, who was clearly not put off by the cricket ball-sized lump on the parading Khajaaly, forced us up to £1,100 to buy him back.

Khajaaly then went ‘under the knife’ that same week. It was expected that his convalescence would mean he’d be out of action for up to six months, and all members of the revised club were braced for paying for his ‘holiday’, and looking forward to a rejuvenated horse in the Autumn.

His operation, which was conducted under a general anaesthetic, went smoothly. And, most importantly, he was able to get up fine after the op. I’m told this is the most worrying time for a horse as they don’t always  get up afterwards, alas.

So far so good.

Khajaaly's curious swab bandage

Khajaaly had a kind of swab stitched into his leg as it was healing, which caught all the fluid and kept out infection, and he had his stitches out yesterday.

 [As you can see, the swab bandage is a curious looking thing, but it seems to have done the trick!]

And, after the stitches came out yesterday, the vet’s bulletin was surprisingly upbeat.

In fact, he told us that our young man can go on the horse walker from today, for two 45 minute stints a day to start to get his mobility and fitness back.

And, better still, assuming all goes well, he can be ridden again within a fortnight.

This was both surprising and delightful news, and augurs well for a swifter return to the track than any of us were expecting.

Obviously, things need to continue to go in his favour, but the signs so far are hugely promising, and we’re REALLY looking forward to seeing him, firstly at the Geegeez Racing Club day at Newmarket on 8th June; and then, later in the season, back on the track.

He’s still only five, and there are plenty more races to be won with him!

There are two shares still available in Khajaaly, if you’d like to join us.

Please contact me directly if that might be of interest.

Good luck this afternoon at York if you’re playing and, if you didn’t already take advantage of Skybet’s generous free £10 bet offer (you need to be a new registrant of their), then click the link below this post and get yourself a decent free bet. There’s no deposit required, just sign up and they’ll immediately credit you.

Let us know if you back a winner in the comments!

And also let us know if you fancy anything at York this afternoon – I need some help with my placepot picks.

Matt

It’s the descriptions of activity in the twilight world of off course betting as recently as the 1980s that stand out in the book, a time when fixed odds betting was only legal on course. Tripp built up a huge telephone network in pubs and back street offices in a business that often became entwined with stories of police corruption – if they knew where the betting was going on, they wanted a part of it – and race fixing.

Some of the accounts of police raids and Tripp’s accounts are lively and colourful, and we learn that this private bookmaker numbered the like of Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke and media tycoon Kerry Packer amongst his clients. Yet despite the author’s claim of “unfettered access to every corner of his life” you actually hear very little from the man himself, as Garvey has to admit. “It would be a mistake to assume that, once we’d broken the ice, he would open up and tell me all. He’s just not that type of man.”

With high stakes gambling, and the threats of bankruptcy and prison both all too real; Alan Tripp might well have become the billion-dollar bookie who beat the odds. He But without his own perspective, the book just falls short of balancing a fascinating story of the shady world of back street gambling with what drove the man who was his country’s most convicted bookie.

Curragh Racecourse

Curragh, May 6^th

I managed to the get the flat season – or at least the punting part of it – up and running at the Curragh on Bank Holiday Monday with a pair of decent winners in Ondeafears and Wrekin Rock; that the pair came in 50-80 handicaps should come as no surprise to anyone who knows my punting methods.

I realise there is something perverse in making your biggest plays in the worst races on the card – that was certainly the case here with the winners returning the worst and second-worst form ratings of the meeting – but I’m a contrarian by nature and handicaps are very much my bread-and-butter.

Group races just don’t do it for me and while some will argue that the perils of punting in such events were brought into sharp relief later on the card with the St Nicholas Abbey debacle in the Mooresbridge Stakes, I don’t agree. That race saw what was palpably the best horse getting turned over but such results are the exception, the problem with playing in pattern races from a personal punting perspective being quite the opposite, i.e. that the best horse wins all too often.

For me, this isn’t a good thing because such horses are all  too obvious and invariably sent off at short prices; what I really want in a race is complexity – whether it be provided by pace, handicap marks, track or draw biases or any number of other variables – as this provides the possibility of a big score. Handicaps, by their very nature, are complex in that their stated aim to give each horse an equal chance and the fastest horse does not always win.

One of the best things about handicaps is the predictability of pace. Exposed handicappers have a running style and by-and-large they stick to it; to change it could compromise their chances. This means one can a have very good idea how a race will be run beforehand which is helpful as one can see how the likely pace scenario will favour one type of runner over another; there may be a front-runner that is going to be left alone in the lead or there may be loads of pace on which will suit closers.

Not only is such pace analysis a useful tool pre-race, it comes in handy afterwards when reviewing a meeting as one can come up with a sensible idea of which horses were advantaged or disadvantaged by the run of things; knowing how the race was expected to be run makes this sort of work far easier.

Analysing pace in other races is much more problematic. In maidens, a punter has little or no evidence to go on with running styles and oftentimes pace becomes an irrelevance as there is such a differential between the ability levels of runners. Group races are even worse, especially in Ireland, and Ballydoyle have to shoulder much of the blame for this. Such is their strength of numbers they can choreograph Irish group races which is not something that can be achieved in England and further afield where the competition is much stiffer.

The best example of this was last year’s Irish 2,000 Guineas where the Aidan O’Brien-trained Roderic O’Connor defeated the best horse in the race Dubawi Gold by dint of tactics, something Dubawi Gold’s jockey Richard Hughes was well aware of in his Racing Post column on the morning of the race; the winner finished the season pace-making in the Irish Champion Stakes while Dubawi Gold was in the frame of Group 1s with Excelebration and Frankel.

Pacemakers are another complicating factor in Irish Group races as one never knows what Ballydoyle are going to do with a race; sometimes they want a breakneck gallop, other times they want to slow it down for a suspect stayer and there are even occasions when they hardly know what they want. Getting stallion prospects is the raison d’être of the yard and it seems that any horse can be sacrificed at the altar of bloodstock, or at least a sire you can charge at least €50,000 a nomination for.

With the Ballydoyle horses, their run styles change markedly from race to race; what a horse did when a short-priced favourite for a Group 3 bears no resemblance to what it is likely to do in a Group 1 next time at 50/1 when the yard has a fancied horse they perceive needs a certain pace. I suspect this sort of chopping and changing  is not good for individual horses are they are not allowed to get into habits on the track and stunts their development and I am sure it is bad for punters who simply don’t have a clue how each horse well be ridden.

Another factor that keys in with pace is track configuration; some tracks favour certain run styles and horse types. The problem with Irish group races from a punting point-of-view is that the vast majority of them are run at the Curragh or Leopardstown, a pair of tracks that are in the main very fair. This is important when one is trying to further the breed and simply find out which is the quickest horse but it reduces the complexity of races and thus makes them less interesting betting mediums.

Personally, I would find pattern races much more interesting if they were run on the Naas sprint track on soft ground (high numbers all the way), at Tipperary (a front-runner’s paradise) or even around the up-and-down Western gaffs like Galway and Ballinrobe (chaos rules).

With the top group horses, punters often need to ask themselves how much more they can know than the market; here are a coterie of talented horses who make up about 10% or less of the equine population yet take up about 90% of the column inches on horse racing (rough figures I know, but you get my meaning).

You may hold a low opinion of the standard of the racing media (I know I certainly do) but the more information they have the more they are likely to spot value and point it out to the public and the few good analysts there are among the media soon spot pricing errors in the top races. With handicappers, it’s a different story.

The proclivities of exposed handicappers may be clear to someone going through their form in detail but they are not covered in media in any great detail and this is where a shrewd punter can get an edge on the market. It seems no coincidence that a number of the punters and analysts I respect – Hugh Taylor, Tom Segal and Dave Nevison in his prime – do a lot of their backing/tipping in fields of older handicappers. Personally, I would have every confidence in playing my knowledge of Irish handicappers against most punters and certainly against the odds compilers.

I suppose an awful lot of this boils down to an old chestnut of punting: specialisation. A punter simply cannot know everything and one has to find races that suit your style. I don’t want to rule out group races entirely as I’m sure some punters swear by them and one should never be dogmatic about rules in racing as one never knows when a good betting opportunity will arrive. It may well be in a Group 1 but somehow I doubt as handicaps have provided most of the best bets of my life.

Well, I Declare! 15/05/12

It’s that time of year now, where the big meetings come thick and fast and there’s often little time to take stock of what has just happened and then prepare yourself for the next assault on the bookmakers. Thankfully, we have the ability to call on the services of Mal Boyle and his regular weekly racing preview. Mal has gone through the upcoming race fixtures and highlighted some angles you may not have thought of. Here’s Mal’s view on the coming week:

“The weather rather spoiled last week’s Chester meeting but with York’s Dante week following on quickly behind, those wet days are soon put behind us. 

Looking at last year’s results at the Dante meeting, seven successful favourites were recorded via twenty-one events, with two of the three market leaders prevailing in the juvenile events. 

Mick Channon saddled two of the three two-year-old winners (both returned at 7/2), with Richard Fahey having secured the other contest via a 6/5 favourite.

Richard was one of just two trainers who saddled three winners at the meeting (his other two gold medallists were returned at 9/1 and 11/2), Mick Easterby being the other with 16/1-10/1-7/1 scorers.

Afore mentioned trainers Mick Channon and John Gosden both saddled two winners.

Sir Henry Cecil and Richard Fahey were both responsible for two beaten favourites during the three-day meeting.  

Last year’s toteplacepot dividends:

Wednesday: £2,923.40 (average first day dividend via the last ten years: £655.79)

Thursday: £20.40 (average second day dividend via the last ten years: £142.53)

Friday: £176.30 (average third day dividend via the last ten years: £403.22)

Have a great week,

Mal.”

TUESDAY 15/05:

Beverley:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute has won with five of his eleven three-year-old raiders at Beverley in recent times, with Courage having been declared to contest the 4.30 event on the card.

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best (strike rate of 32%) and Charlie Longsdon (24%) head the list at Hereford today, with Charlie’s LSP figure of one hundred and eleven dwarfing Jim’s perfectly respectable six points of level stake profits!

Wincanton:

General stats: Steve Dixon has crept in under the radar by training three of his eleven runners at Wincanton to winning effect, especially taking into account his thirty-eight points of profit thus far.

Kempton:

General stats: Luke Morris joined the ton up club at Kempton the other day with Luke five behind Jim Crowley (105 winners during then last five years) going into today’s meeting.

Southwell (NH):

General stats: Three of Nicky Henderson’s last eight runners have won and his 31% strike rate at Southwell suggests further success sooner rather than later for the Seven Barrows yard.

WEDNESDAY 16/05:

Bath:

General stats: With three gold and three silver medallists saddled via his last eight runners, Denis Coakley has entered two runners on the card whilst boasting a strike rate of 22% at Bath in recent years.  The eight relevant winners have produced sixty-six points of level stake profits for good measure!

York:

General stats: The Cheka is due to represent Eve Johnson Houghton (Eve’s only runner on the card) with the trainer having saddled two of her five runners on the Knavesmire in recent years to winning effect.

1.30: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a six-timer with relevant horses having secured twelve of the last sixteen available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the last eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).

‘Draw factor’ (ten and a half furlongs):

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)
12-4-5 (11 ran-good)
5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)
5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)
11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)
7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)
10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)
5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)
2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

2.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals confirming their recent dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result last year via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Eleven of the twenty favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the toteplacepot finale, though just two favourites prevailed during the study period.

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs):

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)
11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)
15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)
12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)
13-7-12 (13 ran-good)
7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)
1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)
6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)
12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)
2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

2.30: Aidan O’Brien’s last three runners in the ‘Musidora’ have finished out of the frame since a 8/15 representative (Alexandrova) could only secure the silver medal behind Short Skirt back in 2006.  Seven of the 14 favourites have reached the frame (five winners) during the study period

3.00: Four and five-year-olds have claimed ten of the last thirteen renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 7-3 during the period.  Four favourites have won this event during the last 14 years, though just three of the other 11 market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs):

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)
1-11-6 (12 ran-good)
3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)
6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-1-13 (17 ran-good)
2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)
9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)
5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)
8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)
3-5-4 (10 ran-good)
3.35:  Four and five-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last fourteen renewals and yours truly offered last year’s 28/1 winner Line Of Duty via three options for the contest.  Six of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years (two winners).

4.10: Three of the seven favourites to date missed out on toteplacepot positions (two winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (three years ago).  The other six winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

‘Draw factor’ five furlongs):

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)
5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)
2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (6 ran-soft)

4.45: Richard Fahey has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medals via just four renewals to date.  Favourites have won three contests (LSP of nearly eight points) whilst the other (2/1) market leader finished fourth of nine three years ago.

‘Draw factor’ (seven furlongs):

8-10-4 (14 ran-good)
3-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-3-2 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-5-2 (10 ran-good)

Fontwell:

General stats: Although Paul Nicholls and Anthony Honeyball head the (33%) leading trainers at Fontwell, Oliver Sherwood’s LSP figure of seventy two points is worth noting (26% strike rate).

Perth:

General stats: Alan Swinbank will be raiding York this week where he saddled a 28/1 winner last year.  His three intended runners here make for interesting reading however, as the trainer has saddled two of his last four runners at Perth to winning effect. 

Lingfield:

General stats: David C Griffiths is a trainer on the way up and his 6/22 stats here at Lingfield are worth noting alongside his LSP figure of eleven points.

THURSDAY 17/05:

Folkestone:

General stats: This Hunter Chase meeting invariably produces winners for leading stables in this sector of the sport.  Alan Hill (4/6), John Turner (3/7) and Peter York (4/11) look sure to saddle winners between them on Thursday.

Newmarket:

General stats: Considering the competitive nature of the sport on the heath, Silvestre De Sousa’s 30% strike rate at Newmarket stands out from the crowd. On the training front, Robert Eddery has saddled two of his five runners to winning effect, whilst Mahmood Al Zarooni’s LSP figure of seventy-seven points is backed up by a 26% Strike rate.

Salisbury:

General stats: Although his strike rate and LSP figures are disappointing, Richard Hannon has saddled forty-two more winners (66/24–last five years) than his nearest rival at Salisbury relating to Thursday’s represented trainers.  The yard struck form at Windsor on Monday and plenty of gold medallists will emerge at Salisbury this season.

York:

General stats: Ryan Moore boasts a 23% strike rate at York during the last five years, with the ex-champion also producing twenty-three level stake profits in the process. 

Class 2 five furlong handicap event scheduled for 1.30: The four winners have scored at 33/1–16/1–11/1–10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 14/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 89-95-89-96. Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.
‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs):

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)
4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-1-12 (15 ran-good)
1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

Middleton Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals of this contest, five-year-olds having prevailed on the other three occasions.  Ten of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period (six winners).

Dante Stakes scheduled for 2.30: Three of the last eight winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby, whilst five of the last fourteen market leaders have obliged.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.  Aidan O’Brien has saddled three of the last six winners.  Two of those three winners went on to contest the ‘Blue Riband’ at Epsom, finishing tenth and twelfth in the process.

Listed Handicap event scheduled for 3.00: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals, whilst thirteen of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners).

‘Draw factor’ (eight furlongs):

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)
4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-5-8 (15 ran-good)
3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)
8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)
12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)
11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)
7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)
6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

Class 2 3YO conditions event scheduled for 3.35: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have finished in the money to date (one winner).

‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs):

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)
3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

Class 3 juvenile event scheduled for 4.10: Twelve of the last thirteen winners have been returned at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have obliged.  Nine of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs):

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)
6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-1-4 (10 ran-good)
6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
4-1 (7 ran-soft)
6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)
6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6 (10-good to firm)
2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)
9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)
7-6 (7 ran-good)

Perth:

General stats: Leading trainers rule the roost at Perth pure and simple, with Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Gordon Elliott all homing in on Nigel Twiston-Davies who has ruled this particular ‘outpost’ down the years.  Jim Goldie’s runners also demand respect.

Ludlow:

General stats: Keith Goldworthy’s LSP figure of ninety-three points continues to catch the eye at Wincanton though logically, every Nicky Henderson declaration is worthy of plenty of respect.

FRIDAY 18/05:

Hamilton:

General stats: David Simcock (3/9) and Jeremy Noseda (2/5) have muscled in on Sir Mark Prescott’s act of late, though Mark’s 48% record (11/23) suggests that he is the man to beat when represented at Hamilton.

Newbury:

General stats: Lady of Burgundy (potential runner in the 4.55 event) is the horse to home in on relating to Friday’s Newbury card for plenty of reasons.  Underrated pilot Racheal Kneller has booted home two of her last four mounts to winning effect at the time of writing whilst her Newbury record of 2/3 catches the eye.  Lady Of Burgundy is trained by Mark Usher who had saddled three winners via his last ten runners when this column was compiled.

Newcastle:

General stats: Regular readers will know that Newcastle is one of my least favourite tracks, particularly in races on the straight course where jockeys seem to ride each race differently regarding their stall positions.  Any track which witnesses races where horses are split into groups greatly favour layers rather than players pure and simple.  John Gosden’s 25% strike rate catches the eye.

Newmarket:

General stats: Mickael Barzalona has produced an LSP figure of nineteen points via a 23% strike rate (six winners) during his brief career in Britain thus far.

York:

General stats: John Dunlop has long since raided the Knavesmire to good effect and his current 31% strike rate holds up well.  John’s ten recent winners have produced fifty-three points of level stake profits at the track.

Listed (Class 1) juvenile event for fillies scheduled for 1.30: Four of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have obliged to date whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at 7/1.  Five of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs):

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)
9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6-1 (10 ran-good)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

Class 2 handicap over twelve furlongs scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won the last five renewals, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won six of the last eight contests.  Seven of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes three winning favourites.

Yorkshire Cup due to be contested at 2.30: Eight of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame, whilst five market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

Listed one mile event for fillies due to be contested at 3.00: Eleven of the thirteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions (via six renewals) have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, with five of the seven favourites finishing in the frame (two winners).

‘Draw factor’ (eight furlongs):

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)
7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-soft)

Five furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 3.35: Twelve of the sixteen horses to have gained toteplacepot positions via four renewals to date have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst trainer Mick Easterby comes to the gig on a hat trick having saddled 16/1 and 5/2 winners of late.  Mick only held one entry earlier in the week whereby Towbee obviously carries plenty of stable confidence. Only one of the five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position to date (no winners).

‘Draw factor (five furlongs)’:

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

Ten furlong Class 3 handicap due to be contested at 4.10: Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the toteplacepot finale, with two favourites having obliged during the last decade.  Seven of the fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  It’s worth noting that Saeed Bin Suroor has not been represented in the race since securing a hat trick in the contest back in 2009, with Yasir being his only potential runner in the race this time around.  Whether or not the four-year-old gets into the handicap (current standing: 29/55), Yasir is one to consider for future events from my viewpoint.

Twelve furlong 3YO closing event scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won four of the last nine contests, the biggest priced winner during the period having been returned at just 9/1 which is a reasonable record in a competitive event.  Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.

Aintree:

General stats: Jimmy McCarthy is booked to ride E Major in the 8.15 contest and with Jimmy having ridden three winners at Aintree via just eight assignments (LSP figure of forty points in the process), Renee Robeson’s representative is worth keeping on the right side.

SATURDAY 19/05:

Doncaster:

General stats: Runners from the yards of Roger Varian (6/14) and David Lanigan (5/12) deserve plenty of respect on Town Moor these days.

Newbury:

General stats: Roger Varian (fifty-six points of level stake profits) has carried on where Michael Jarvis left off and alongside Mahmood Al Zarooni and Roger Charlton (to name but two other top trainers who boast decent profits at Newbury), Varian’s runners should never be ignored.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden event due to be contested at 1.30: Henry Cecil has won two of the last four renewals of this event and though the maestro held four entries at the time of writing, Tom Queally was already booked aboard All That Rules. Twelve of the last fourteen winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less (three winning favourites). This race looked likely to be split into two divisions (as was the case last year) at the time of writing (fifty-six entries).

‘Draw factor’ (ten furlongs):

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
1-10-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
2-7-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-11-15 (14 ran-soft)
11-4-9 (14 ran-good
4-5-9 (15 ran-good)
4-8-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
8-6-9 (11 ran-good)
9-10-6 (10 ran-good)
6-11-3 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-5-17 (17 ran-good)
9-13-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-8-5 (15 ran-soft)
15-7-5 (20 ran-good to firm)
4-14-7 (14 ran-soft)

Listed ‘Aston Park’ event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen renewals of this staying event, whilst ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame (three winners), with all fourteen winners having scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Class 2 six furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds had won all four renewals until last year when a six-year-old upset the apple-cart. Fifteen of the seventeen win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-3 or less, whilst four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame to date (one winner).  Last year’s result was dominated by horses drawn on the high side: 16-13-17-10 (18 ran-good to firm).

Class 2 ‘London Gold Cup’ scheduled for 3.05:  Two clear favourites (along side a co favourite of three) have prevailed during the study period, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

‘Draw factor’ (ten furlongs):

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)
5-9-12 (12 ran-good)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)
8-1-3 (10 ran-good)
5-9-13 (13 ran-good)
6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
3 (3 ran-soft)
8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)
3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

Lockinge Stakes due to be contested at 3.40: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whereby ante post punters who have backed Frankel appear to have precious little to worry about.  The last thirteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (seven winning favourites), whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Class 4 handicap for fillies over seven furlongs scheduled for 4.50: Four of the last five winners have scored at 28/1-25/1-20/1-16/1 whilst just one favourite has obliged via eight renewals.  Seven of the eight winners carried weights of 9-1 or less.

Class 4 3YO maiden scheduled for 5.20: Ralph Beckett has saddled three of the last four winners of this event (100/1-7/1-6/1) with Ralph coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.  Riot Of Colour was Ralph’s only entry earlier in the week.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed.

Newmarket:

General stats: With an aggregate of seventy-five winners during the last five years, Richard Hannon and John Gosden rule the roost at Newmarket regarding potentially represented yards at Newmarket on Saturday, the two trainers boasting an aggregate LSP figure of one hundred and four points into the bargain.

Thirsk

General stats: Andrew Balding is saddling plenty of winners at present though the trainer is a rare visitor to Thirsk these days. That said, Andrew held two entries at the time of writing and given his 40% strike rate at the course, both horses should be kept on the right side if offered the green light to race.

Bangor: 

General stats: Younger trainers have produced plenty of winners at Bangor in recent years, with the likes of Rebecca Curtis (27% strike rate), Charlie Longsdon (25%) and Martin Todhunter (25%) all gaining their share of glory.  All three trainers produce positive LSP figures which add up to sixty-two points at this moment in time.

Uttoxeter: 

General stats: Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Snowdon both boast a 27% strike rate at Uttoxeter, offering respective LSP figures of nineteen and twenty-three for good measure.

For the latest Irish race trends, click here.

O’Brien’s gallops include an almost perfect replica of the downhill sweep through Tattenham Corner, which his horses canter round every day. No doubt some speedier work round here will help the trainer to finalise his Epsom candidates. So out of those 25 entries, which are uppermost in O’Brien’s thinking? At yesterday’s media day at Ballydoyle he spoke about the chances of some of those horses.

Clearly race favourite, 2000 Guineas winner Camelot is his top colt, and has already demonstrated his ability. Obviously O’Brien thinks highly of him. He says, “I don’t want to blow him up in any way and I don’t want people to think that I’m trying to, but he was very exceptional from day one, when he was born. As anyone can see, he’s a very good-looking horse, a very good-actioned horse and usually those horses are too good to be true.”

But High Chaparral was O’Brien’s last Derby winner in 2002, and it hasn’t been for want of trying – he’s has 39 runners over the last decade. He’s taking nothing for granted this year, saying, “We’re used to coming home humbled.”

Of his other entries, O’Brien identified three that he thought could be in the line up on 2 June. The participation of Ernest Hemingway could be decided this week. He’s due to run in the Dante at York on Thursday, but will only do so if the ground is good, something that doesn’t look likely. The trainer said, “If it’s on the soft side we won’t run. He’s a beautiful moving horse and we wouldn’t want to run him in soft ground. If we got nice ground, we’d love to run.” OK, we get the message Aidan!

Without a run this week, Ernest Hemingway is very unlikely to go for the Derby, as he won’t have enough experience for Epsom’s hurly-burly. He’s had just the one run so far, winning a maiden at Dundalk last month.

Another possibility is Tower Rock, who battled well before going down by a neck to Light Heavy in Sunday’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown. O’Brien expects more from Tower Rock. “He’s progressed well and I’d say would progress again. He’s very like his dad (Dylan Thomas). He’s a big horse and he could be very much a possible for Epsom.”

Wrote was favourite for the Derrinstown race at 8/13, but finished in third, eight lengths behind Light Heavy and Tower Rock. O’Brien said that Wrote didn’t have the stamina for the 10 furlongs of the trial, so tackling the 12 furlongs of the Derby is hardly an option. He’ll likely come back to a mile for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

It was ambitious to send Daddy Long Legs to America for the Kentucky Derby. He had struggles on the dirt track in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile, and didn’t take to it again. “He was quick away but still ran disappointing so we put it down that he just didn’t handle the dirt and we’re going to bring him back to the grass. He has the option of the Irish Guineas or the Epsom Derby. He’s a hardy horse who comes out of his races very well and seems to be fine so far.” But will he be supplemented? Your guess is as good as mine.

One who won’t turn up at Epsom is Nephrite. He was beaten in a Guineas trial over a mile, and O’Brien said he thought the horse didn’t stay. He’ll take a similar path to Mozart and Stravinsky, both horses he trained who became top class sprinters after failing to get a mile (though I don’t recall a composer called Nephrite) and may go to Royal Ascot for the Jersey Stakes.

O’Brien was happy that his other entries would deserve their place in the Derby. “All these horses are bred and reared to turn up in the Derby, the race which distinguishes the breed. So it’s very hard, if they’re well, not to let them take their chance. But that won’t be my decision. They’re all on that Derby road at the moment, and, closer to the time, the boys (partners in the Coolmore operation) will decide that.”

No doubt one or two will be there as pacemakers for Camelot. And as we have seen already this season, pacemakers can keep going and overturn all expectations.