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Systems are my favourite method of profiting from my betting. The reasons behind this should be obvious: if something has worked in the past, why wouldn’t it work in the future?
The most common counter to this is that some systems can be back fitted. That is, the system rules may not be built on a logical foundation, and thus the creator has simply (ab)used historical data to derive a positive number in the profit and loss column.
Now and then, these ‘systems’ can continue to make money, sometimes due to good fortune (that great imponderable), and sometimes because there may be ‘hidden’ logic, or reasons that are not immediately obvious. But, usually, if a system doesn’t have good logic as its backbone, it’s highly likely to be a piece of poo…
So, having lampooned many such badly written systems, and their tenuous claims, I approached the Favourites Phenomenon (FP) system with a little more optimism, and much more hope!
Favourites Phenomenon (FP hereafter for, I hope, obvious reasons!) is the subject of this review.
FP is a Stop At A Winner (SAW) system. This means that you have a pre-defined profit for the day, and stop once you’ve made it. There is nothing novel in this approach, though most systems predicated on SAW are too open-ended, meaning that your risk exposure can become something for only hedge fund traders or those of very stern constitution.
FP recognises that different users will have different comfort levels on the risk appetite scale. Sensibly, then, the system offers three different staking plans – or levels – to appeal to beginners, intermediate and professionals alike.
The staking plan has two parameters that ensure a user will never get out of his or her comfort zone / depth, and will never be chasing too far, or in vain.
However, the converse of ‘stop loss’ points is that it does mean that when the winner is not found, you have to take a hit. How often this happens depends on the level you play at. It is recommended – correctly, in my opinion – that when you select your level, you should stick at that level for a good period of time (say 3 months) before changing. Chopping and changing is not a good strategy at the best of times, and could find you out with FP.
A betting bank is recommended, comprised of sufficient points for the level of risk you are prepared to flirt with. This means that, as long as you stay disciplined, you will continue to grow your bank over time.
What FP is not, is a system that will give you the option of boasting about regular big priced winners.
FP is, however, a system that will continue to deliver consistent single unit increments to your bank most days, giving you (very) regular winning days. This is countered in small part by the fact that losing days will cost you more than a unit, but never more than the threshold that you’ve decided upon.
Moreover, there may be a no bet day from time to time as well. This is simple enough to work out, as is the amount to stake on each qualifier, because the system comes with a spreadsheet to do the number crunching for you. In fact, most days, you’ll receive an email with a view of whether or not to play that day.
Inside the spreadsheet, just enter your profit target, and the latest odds of each qualifier (based on betfair prices), and the spreadsheet will tell you the topmost liability for your chosen level. If the likely odds breach your max, keep your money in your wallet / purse / sock and wait for the next opportunity!
In my review, I tracked it from Sunday to Friday (just six days), and I comfortably made my target each day. In fact, the biggest worry I had was on that first Sunday, when I had to wait until qualifying race 6 to collect.
Over the much more meaningful period of all of 2008, the system gave 170.2 points of profit: that’s over Â£17,000 in profit for a Â£100 level stake. This is clearly exceptional performance from a horse racing system.
Another point to note about FP is that you do not need to be tracking the racing to do this. If, like most people, you have to work during the day, you have three options:
1. Only use the system at weekends
2. Use the system in the evenings
3. Use the supplied ‘bot software to place your bets for you (it comes with a free trial, and is very simple to use)
It should be recorded that the author, Matt Watson, has no data for the system performance on evening racing. But, from a logical standpoint, and also tracking the results during the review week, there’s no reason why FP wouldn’t be equally effective (it’s just that Matt doesn’t have the data to support this).
In summary, I’m not surprised that this has performed so brilliantly during 2008, as losing weeks are rare with such an approach if applied with discipline and patience. It’s not the most exciting system (if you want one of those then LS Trader might be for you!), but it is a fiercely consistent profit nicker.
I’ve seen the results since 2006, and they’re as impressive as those from last year:
2006 212 points
2007 333 points
2008 170 points
2009 96 points
2010 100 points (to end October)
Total 911 points
These are substantiated results that you can actually independently verify for yourself (once you’ve signed up, Matt will show you how from his extensive members’ area).
I’m giving this system a fullsome 10 out of 10 rating. It’s accessible to all levels of racing fan, whether you’re diehard or new to the sport, and it has a proven track record (independently verifiable); comes with a no quibble money back guarantee; and the author provides excellent customer service.
It’s a system that I’d be proud to promote as my own, and have no hesitation in recommending it highly to you.
Go get yourself a copy now!FP System Review,