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The trial of Dream Lays ran its course over three and a half weeks, and below is my final review.
Before I tell you what I thought, first let me remind you about what the Dream Lays service is.
Dream Lays is, unsurprisingly, a laying service. That is, it seeks to find horses who have a lower chance of winning than their odds suggest. It then suggests these horses are opposed, or layed, on the betting exchanges.
The service only seeks to â€˜playâ€™ when the odds of recommended horses fall into certain odds parameters, as follows. There is a low range and a high range and, at the low end, subscribers would oppose horses priced between 5.9 and 7 (or 4.9/1 and 6/1)Â on the exchanges. The high range is between 12 and 17 (or 11/1 and 16/1 in Betfair terms).
Each day, there are around ten to fifteen possible selections, and this is whittled down to roughly three to five daily after the odds consideration has been applied.
Dream Lays subscriptions are monthly, quarterly or annual, with a sliding scale of price depending on how long you sign up for. The monthly ticket is Â£59, the quarterly Â£139, and the annual price is Â£399.
The easiest way to use this service would be with a bot, where one would simply enter the horses and the ranges and allow nature to take its course. Failing that, there is a requirement to track the pre-race markets to check the odds. In fact, there is a slightly bigger (and more universal) problem than that.
It is recommended that subscribers back horses only where their Betfair SP resides within a certain range. Unfortunately, the actual Betfair SP is not known until after the race has started. Consequently, it is quite possible to occasionally bet horses outside of the range when your bot (or your judgment) says the horse will be within the Betfair SP scope.
There has been a number of instances where a horse ran at odds of around 5.91. It is not possible to â€˜guessâ€™ ahead of time which side of the odds cut off these horses would fall, so some small variances from the â€˜officialâ€™ results line may be had. In fairness, these things do tend to even themselves out and actually, during the trial, a number of winning (and therefore losing for subscribers) horses fell just inside the range.
It may have been possible in these cases to â€˜dodge the bulletâ€™.
That observation aside, how did Dream Lays perform? In a word, reasonably. It is my intention in these reviews to give my view on both the trial performance and the likely overall performance. In so doing, I aim to mitigate any short-term triumph or disaster to some degree by projecting forwards. That is clearly more judgment than science and should be taken as such.
However, I have been reviewing betting systems for a good few years now, so my judgment is quite good.
During the trial period, the service has been extremely regimented in its promise to have selections online by 11.30 am GMT, and receives a tick for reliability there.
The actual selections have shown a loss over the trial of Â£14.70, or 1.47 points. Considering the ranges in which horses are laid, this is negligible. However, it is a loss and that means it is not a profit. (Well done, Einstein! )
During the trial, some interesting points have been raised about the parentage (if thatâ€™s the right word) of Dream Lays. A couple of readers have observed how similar â€“ in terms of the selections â€“ it is to another service called Itâ€™s Lay Time.
I put that to the Dream Lays service provider, Alan, and he told me that this was more than just coincidence. In fact, it transpires that the two services are owned, according to the information I have at least, by ex-business partners, and therefore a shared algorithm is in use here.
However, Iâ€™m not entirely satisfied by this, as both websites were registered on the same day (17th March 2007), and both websites retain the same registration details. This implies, and no more than that, that any business partnership that may be present here remains in situ.
In other words, two services advertised separately of each other, despite being related, will bring in more revenue than oneâ€¦ especially if the second one can generate publicity from a re-launch.
Now, with my marketing hat on I â€˜sort ofâ€™ salute that. After all, if you subscribe to both, you will realise immediately what is happening and claim a refund on one of the two services. Butâ€¦ if Iâ€™m right â€“ and thereâ€™s no conrete evidence that I am â€“ then the service providers havenâ€™t been entirely honest with me.
Anyway, as I say, this is more conjecture than fact on my part, and I offer to you as such.
Do note that Dream Lays has more selections than Itâ€™s Lay Time, and therefore has different results. This means that, even if the services are still from the same â€˜stable, that youâ€™re getting more action with Dream Lays.
For the trial then, Iâ€™ll give Dream Lays a 6/10. Itâ€™s done moderately, and a single winner either losing or falling just the other side of the odds parameters would have seen the service record a profit.
But what about the long-term success prospects? I think theyâ€™re OK for those who donâ€™t mind volatility. Let me expand on that.
Dream Lays has been running since February and in that time has racked up a claimed profit of just over 300 points. My brief search on the internet cannot find a review older than mine, and Iâ€™m not certain that results have been proofed anywhere, which means it is impossible for me to categorically state they are accurate and true.
However, again, I have no reason to suggest theyâ€™re not. But the volatility may well put many off. When you lay a horse at 16.5, and it wins, it is not just oneâ€™s bank that takes a big hit. It is also oneâ€™s confidence. This did happen once during the trial, and it will of course happen more often over time.
I would be recommending a deep enough bank with this service: maybe 100 points up to 150 points for the cautious. And, if you have the misfortune to join on a day when a big priced winner (and therefore loser for subscribers) hits the board, you will need discipline.
Overall, the service is easy enough to follow if you accept that you may not get exactly the same results as are displayed (due it not being possible to project Betfair SP), and if youâ€™re comfortable with volatility, and if youâ€™re fine with the notion that this may be a hybrid of another service which is still available, you might try this one.
That is a lot of â€˜ifâ€™sâ€™ there, which means my overall rating for Dream Lays is 5/10. There are simply too many question marks over the service for me to be comfortable recommending it to readers.
I sincerely hope the service proves me wrong but, on the evidence I have, itâ€™s not one that will make it into the Geegeez portfolio.