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The Ultimate Forex Predictor – Review: July 2009
How It Works
Just soâ€™s you can see what is actually on screen for our test, Iâ€™ve stuck theÂ Buy trade on the EURUSD 30-min chart from June 24th.
When the red dot comes on the screen, it is an unfilled circle and you get a whistled audible warning. If the trade gets the go-ahead, then the circle fills, either as a standard â€˜PTPâ€™ (potential trade point) or an â€˜S-PTPâ€™ (super â€“ potential trade point).
You then click on the calculation toolÂ and click it on the circle. This can â€“ and probably shouldÂ be â€“ doneÂ when it is the unfilled circle as it give you the figures to set up your trade. If the trade doesnâ€™t happen, you can cancel the buy order (remember to do this, as it will stay there until you do!).
The solid green candles are â€˜pro-buyersâ€™, trades pushed along by the major institutions and big money volume. They are red in the case of a sell trade.
The wavy, thin red line is the 20-Period EMA.
The â€˜Initial Stopâ€™ is the max stop-loss (-53pts) and the jagged red shows the trail of the â€˜Trailing Stopâ€™.
The scalp target is set at 5pts here.
The trade ended with a profit of +198pts and a High of +241pts.
OK, so now then. What do I really think? Well, nitty, gritty firstâ€¦TUFXP is a professional tool and it comes with a price tag that reflects that: it will set you back Â£1,997 (+ VAT), and you will also need to take the data feed which the programme relies on, which, as of today, comes in at $85.00 per month (around Â£52). This will fluctuate slightly due to the rate of exchange.
You will get the first 30-days free â€“ which is a specialÂ offer set up through the software, itâ€™s only 7-days if you were to be looking at this feed for something else, so thatâ€™s a good deal.
You will benefit from those free days, as it does take a little while to get a feel for the system and paper-trading should be done for as long as it takes for you to feel comfortable.
My own settings for the test stuck pretty close to the defaults, with my only changes being that I set the sensitivity for the signals at 8, not 10, as I wanted to use the three different time-scales and 8 seemed to cover the three pretty well.
I also had Low Volume Filter ticked.
Finally, I used a 20-Period EMA line as a comparison point as regards trade-management and to see how it compared to using the set Trailing-Stop, as it lets the market â€˜breatheâ€™ a little more.
I have to say that I was impressed by the system: a few small niggles aside, it ticked all the boxes.
It is not quite a straight-out-the-box system, as once you start to get into it, you realise that it is actually not a system but, rather, a sophisticated indicator tool.
The settings are fully custom-isable (if thatâ€™s a word!) and you can adjust and tweak them to get them fitting into your own particular trading style. (Or you can follow the settings I used in the test, which worked extremely well â€“ see the overall results here).
You can do tweak to an almost unlimited degree. That said, the results published over this test have been taken as if done point-and-shoot style, with trades left to run to either the Trailing-Stop or the Stop-Loss (Initial-Stop), with no other trade management from me.
This shows conclusively that a rookie could plug-and-play. It has also shown that with a little bit of nous you could make serious money with TUFXP.
If you were concentrating on the 5-min charts, I would say that decreasing the sensitivity to perhaps at leastÂ 10 would clean up the trades considerably, especially in a sideways market, getting rid of a lot of theÂ false signals which troubled us in those situations. The system really doesnâ€™t like range-bound markets.
Personally, I would also trade straight through the day, from 07.00 â€“ 15.00+ and would ignore some of the suggested alerts. I would makeÂ myself aware of the alerts (using my favourite site, fx360.com), but I wouldnâ€™t stop myself from trading because an alert was there, unlessâ€¦ it was dueÂ just as I got a signal.
If we had waited for a clear day, I think weâ€™d have had about two dayâ€™s trading â€“ and both would have lost pts!
Regular readers will also know that one of my pet hates was the way in which we were caught out by very violent one-candle moves, getting in so late â€“ up to 95% and 100â€™s of points of theÂ move missed â€“ that we pretty much always lost. Again,Â I was letting the system do the talking and in reality, you can see these set-ups coming a mile away and avoid getting sucked in.
I also didnâ€™t see much point in the Super-PTPs as they didnâ€™t perform any better than the normal PTPs and it was almost always one of these signals which would be caught out by the above trap in the test period. I actually would have ended up treating them with caution.
You would need to make sure that you were making enough to cover your feed costs and as such, a tiny bank is likely to be restrictive. So this may not be for everyone. However, a $2,000 bank will give you a 100pt per trade maximum loss figure at 5% of your bank and, during the test period, we were never near that. Compound that bank over a few months and youâ€™re well on your way.
A couple of points to mention: The indicator tool software comes with free updates. It will not automatically update while you are on your initial â€˜freeâ€™ period though. However this can be done manually via the membersâ€™ web page â€“ I never needed to.
Once you have gone ahead and fully initialised the software, the updates are downloaded automatically on a regular basis. I never had any problems with the feed (I used the FXCM data) with the only glitch coming as a result of my computer downloading security updates and re-starting while I was away from my desk. This disrupted the feed and left a gap in the data, but that was my fault not the software.
The membersâ€™ page is very useful if youâ€™re into forums and that sort of thing and the Q&A section has the answer to virtually any question you could possibly need answered. If, by any chance, you still need to talk to a real person, the help-desk/support network is fast and efficient.
Final Thoughts and Verdict
Now for my own personal thoughts on the results. Well, I would be looking at trading the 30-min or possiblyÂ 15-minÂ charts for the GBPUSD andÂ the EURUSD, with an EMA-20 as a profit-taking guide. I would be looking to take a profit-target of around 30pts (10-20 on the 15-min charts) and then move my stop up to break even.Â You could also use this by taking 50% profit initially and then letting the remainder run, moving your stop upÂ to lock in more profit in blocks of 10pts or so.
On the 5-min charts, I would useÂ a smaller initial profit target, as it can be a bit damaging to your bank to try and bag big points on the five-min charts while you wait for the ones which come good, as could be seen on the differences between the 5-min charts for bagging +50pt blocks, with +500pts on the GBPUSD compared to -630pts on the EURUSD.
On the 1-Hour charts, you should not be letting the trades run from beginning to end but definitely be using profit-targets and a colleague who trades the 1-Hour time-frame was impressed by itâ€™s performance.
I have to say, that I have missed not having the system and I am surprised by how much I liked the fact that you simply get a go signal and donâ€™t have to think it through. I have always been a bit of a control freak that way, so for me to feel comfortable with this is certainly no small thing.
So, would I recommend TUFXP? And would I buy it myself?
â€¦short answers are, â€˜yesâ€™ and â€˜yesâ€™. TUFXP is an excellent â€˜no thought requiredâ€™ indicator system for forex trading. Itâ€™s price may appear prohibitive at first, but when you consider that trading just one pair over a four week period returned over a 1,000 points (1,055 to be precise), it shouldnâ€™t take too long to return your investment.
Moreover, the system â€“ which is five CD-Româ€™s and a manual â€“ includes full training for forex newbies.
Add to this that the customer support is second to none and, of course, there is a full 100% no questions asked money back guarantee. If youâ€™re not happy with it, or it doesnâ€™t work for you, just return the package within 30 days and theyâ€™ll return your investment.
But, based on my experiences, youâ€™ll not be taking them up on this! 10 / 10