Laying Handicap Favourites

February 19, 2013 | Filed under: Blog,Free Tips | Posted by:
Laying Handicap Favourites

Laying Handicap Favourites

I spend quite a bit of time going over a wide range of stats and something I keep coming back to is
the prevalence of losing favourites in handicap races.

I know I’m not the first person to spot this.
Indeed, there are already several systems/services out there that concentrate solely
on laying favourites and some perform better than others.

I’m not advocating a blanket coverage here, but I do believe that by carefully selecting the races,
we can turn a profit from these.

For the 6 months from August 2012 to the end of January 2013:had 146 successful lays from 185 = 78.92% strike rate and profits of £5300 to £100 stakes.

This month has seen 10/12 successful bets for profits of 3.8pts.

So, I’m going to openly trial my thoughts here on a daily basis for the next few weeks.

The rules are very simple:
The selected horse(s) must be favourite or joint favourite.
It must go off at an SP of 4/1 or under: but the maximum lay is set at 5.5.
The race must be a handicap contest.

I’ll settle all the bets to a £20 lay stake at Betfair SP.

Chris Worrall

Day 1: 19/02/2013

I would have gone with See U Bob in the 3.15 Wetherby, but this won’t be the favourite and probably won’t be 4/1 or under!

***Finished 2nd at 11/2, but NO  BET***

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2 Responses to Laying Handicap Favourites

  1. Hi Chris,

    This looks very interesting and it’s something that I have in my portfolio. I’m not a big fan of laying but favs in handicaps can be a gold mine if you’re selective.

    As you know I look at the value and all my betting is based on how the market interprets a race. A lot of Favs are backed in heavily throughout the day and these can be massively false favs, you know the old adage…….there’s a gamble going down and I want to be involved. Following the money is certainly more profitable in the long run if you go AGAINST it and get laying!

    I wish you luck with this and let’s hope you don’t get the proofers curse!!

    Cheers,

    Ed

    Ed
    February 19, 2013 at 6:28 pm
    Reply

    • Thanks for the kind words, Ed.
      Just awaiting the implementation of the Law of Sod! :D

      Chris Worrall
      February 19, 2013 at 6:40 pm
      Reply

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