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I spend quite a bit of time going over a wide range of stats and something I keep coming back to is
the prevalence of losing favourites in handicap races.
I know I’m not the first person to spot this.
Indeed, there are already several systems/services out there that concentrate solely
on laying favourites and some perform better than others.
I’m not advocating a blanket coverage here, but I do believe that by carefully selecting the races,
we can turn a profit from these.
For the 6 months from August 2012 to the end of January 2013:had 146 successful lays from 185 = 78.92% strike rate and profits of £5300 to £100 stakes.
This month has seen 10/12 successful bets for profits of 3.8pts.
So, I’m going to openly trial my thoughts here on a daily basis for the next few weeks.
The rules are very simple:
The selected horse(s) must be favourite or joint favourite.
It must go off at an SP of 4/1 or under: but the maximum lay is set at 5.5.
The race must be a handicap contest.
I’ll settle all the bets to a £20 lay stake at Betfair SP.
Day 1: 19/02/2013
I would have gone with See U Bob in the 3.15 Wetherby, but this won’t be the favourite and probably won’t be 4/1 or under!
***Finished 2nd at 11/2, but NO BET***