Monday Placepot: Wolverhampton 7th January
Placepot Picks
In the first of a new series – which will become more regular as the year wears on – we’ll have a crack at a placepot perm at Wolverhampton. The perm will be in two parts: a ‘basic’ version, which is a simple one ticket perm; and an ‘advanced’ version, which will use the ticket builder tool here to calculate the various different slips which comprise the perm.
It’s truly dire racing today, and so there could be some fun to be had if we can get a couple of results to go our way. Let’s get cracking!
Race 1: 2.20
Spark Of Genius won a poor maiden by eight lengths last time, and this is her first start in handicap company. She ought to go close, but handicaps are a good bit more competitive than Class 5 and 6 AW maidens, and I wouldn’t be banking on her. Sir Bruno has dropped a long way down the handicap and this looks his optimal track/trip. Unlimited is no 33/1 shot for this, but doesn’t quite make the ticket.
A – 6 B – 2
Race 2: 2.50
Four runners so win only. Bold Marc is unplaced from five starts here, and is overlooked. The other three could all win and all make A.
A – 2, 3, 4
Race 3: 3.20
A bugger’s muddle of a race, and one in which I’ve nominated the Stat of the Day selection. He is Tyrur Ted, and he makes B. Arabian Flight and Flag Of Glory are the safest options, and both make A. Koo And The Gang and the impossible-to-predict Pipers Piping join Ted on B.
A – 4, 8 B – 2, 5, 7
Race 4: 3.50
Rosie’s Lady looks banker material. Landown Littlerock and talented on his day, Waldsee, are others to consider. But my placepots always contain ‘one brave race’ – or a banker selection – and Rosie’s Lady will be that.
A – 1
Race 5: 4.20
The much more competitive division, and the top two in the weights – Liberty Love and Scribe – look to hold solid prospects. Easydoesit has been running well under similar conditions and ought to go close again. In a race which seems to have a lot of dead wood further down the weights, that trio will do.
A – 1, 2, 5
Race 6: 4.50
A very trappy closer and, depending on your budget, there are a number of ways to play this. You could choose the favourite and lay it on the exchanges for a place (assuming eight or more runners: currently nine) to insure your position. Alternatively, you could take the first two or three in the betting, and then perm the rest in combination trifectas to cover stakes. Or you could just choose a couple and ‘let it ride’.
Above The Stars and Aubrietta should run well, as should Mey Blossom and Climaxfortackle. Unhelpfully, they’re the first four in the betting. Avonvalley is a bigger priced lass with a squeak, while there’s been notable money for Button Moon.
Foolishly, perhaps, I’m going to take the favourite, Above The Stars, on here. Climaxfortackle and Aubrietta will be A’s, and Mey Blossom and Button Moon will be B’s.
A – 3, 8 B – 5, 9
Let’s see how those perms pan out…
Basic version, A’s only
1 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 2 = 36 bets
Basic version, A’s and B’s
2 x 3 x 5 x 1 x 3 x 4 = 360 bets
Advanced version, using ticket builder
Wolverhampton Permutations: All A’s, or any 5 A’s with any 1 B, or any 4 A’s with any 2 B’s
Good luck!
Matt
Monday Placepot: Wolverhampton 7th January,
35 Responses to Monday Placepot: Wolverhampton 7th January
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all that hard work and analysis and if you get lines up it will be worth a fraction due to the extra tickets being placed by 100′s of followers.i don’t think you thought this through
thomas
January 7, 2013 at 12:20 pm
Of course I thought it through, Thomas! I think everything through.
A few people will follow this blindly, some people will use it as a pointer for their own efforts, and others will get involved in the various different perm options.
It’s a bit of Monday fun and, whilst there is always a danger of diluting the dividend with a perm pool, the nature of this is that it offers different options and starting points for different punters.
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 12:29 pm
Matt, what is the pick for race 4, rosies lady or landown littlerock?
cheers Martin
martin jago
January 7, 2013 at 12:39 pm
It’s Rosie’s Lady, Martin. I’ve just amended the number. Apologies. (I suspect they’ll both be placed in any case, but that was careless of me).
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 12:46 pm
I do placepots regularly, and can see no merit in this at all. you could have, in theory the first 3 in a given race, on one line, but lose out because it is not covered in line B, If you are going to lay out £54, as in the example, then why not perm in selections, in one slip? That way, if you are lucky enough to have selected the right horses, you are guaranteed to win. Seems simple enough to me. Perm 3x3x3x3x3x2=486@10p=£48.60. Less money, but full cover. Seemples!!
Frank
January 7, 2013 at 12:47 pm
Hi Frank. If you don’t see merit in it, perhaps take a look at this post: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/how-to-win-the-tote-placepot/
To be blunt, I’ve cooked eggs before but that doesn’t make me an expert and, with respect, I’ve written half a book on the subject of perm wagers (not yet published) and have read voraciously on the matter, which probably does make me close to an expert.
In a nutshell, full cover perms offer no value, as the implication is that you fancy all horses equally, which of course cannot be true. If you don’t trust your judgment, you’ll want them all in because you don’t know. If you trust your judgment, you’ll want to have more on some than others, and be prepared to snake your way out of winning if you were mostly wrong.
That’s the game!
Matt
p.s. I should also add that you’ve probably missed a key element. In the A/B tickets, I have 40p lines for ticket 1; 20p lines for tickets 2-4; and 10p lines on tickets 5-7. In other words, I’ve weighted my wager towards my A picks, which are my stronger fancies. In other, other words, I’ve backed my judgment.
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 1:06 pm
i like the write ups and will maybe use them to find some place only singles on the bigger priced ones.
not having a pop but i really can see the dividends being affected.
thomas
January 7, 2013 at 12:58 pm
That’s fair enough Thomas, and good luck to you. We’ll see how today goes. One swallow won’t make a summer, so there will be plenty more placepot action as the year rolls on.
Best,
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 1:09 pm
Im part of the syndicate that owns Rosies Lady with all winnings going to Horse Racing charities.
After winning at 9/1 on her 1st race for us last week Rosie should win this hands down and the 2/1 I got this morning is excellent now considering she is odds on now (what a difference 1 win makes)
Anyway Matt im sure your banker in the 3.50 wont let you down fingers crossed anyway
wayne
January 7, 2013 at 1:23 pm
Thanks Wayne – let’s hope you’re right. Good luck to you and the syndicate, and what an excellent innovation.
Best,
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 1:26 pm
Good luck Matt,,,as you know, I have written four books on the subject and maintain it is the best bet in racing, though I accept that some people cannot accept a bet from which there is a large deduction from the Tote.
That said, I would rather play against fellow punters (as on the exchanges) any day than try and beat the bookmakers because whatever people believe, they have all angles covered.
Mal Boyle
January 7, 2013 at 1:39 pm
You remain the master, Mal. I’ll have to get your considered input on some of these placepot efforts in due course…
Best,
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 2:18 pm
Hi, This looks like a good addition to the site, I am 74 and I have only done the place pot a couple of times,
I don’t bet much now but this looks a good way to spend my time.
Barry
Barry
January 7, 2013 at 2:21 pm
Good work Matt and totally agree with you about the full combination perms offering poorer value. I use a perm spreadsheet with various plans to produce single lines from A, B or/and sometimes C selections. It’s roughly based on Steven Crist and Barry Meadows books..it’s the best way to maximise placepot returns/ROI on a regular basis using your own judgement/weightings.
I prefer the Scoop6 and big meeting pools myself rather than some of these midweek smaller pools on the all-weather but you can get still get big returns by thinking outside the box and being a bit contrarian.
Out of interest how do you prefer your eggs cooked – fried, scrambled…you look more a poached man to me
Keep up the good work mate.
Dave McAuley
January 7, 2013 at 2:27 pm
Good stuff Dave!
Do you use the ticket builder? Very useful for sorting out the ABC slips.
As for eggs, any/all of the above. I have experimented with various ingredient permutations in scrambled eggs, and they’ve sometimes paid handsome dividends…
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 2:29 pm
Five Wolverhampton toteplacepot dividends paid over a grand last year Matt….nice wages for a Monday if you land a dividend with that kind of return!
Mal Boyle
January 7, 2013 at 2:53 pm
After the first two jollies obliging, that looks unlikely now, Mal, alas. But there’s still four races to run…
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 3:07 pm
Hi Matt
Rosies Lady im glad as your banker she came in sorry about the odds though.
I had Her and Ladybrook as a 1-2 but just missed that one
Anyway the best news is that another £2000 goes to the horse Charities courtesy of Rosie and everyone from Post Racing.net
wayne
January 7, 2013 at 4:01 pm
Hiyer, nice idea for people to take a look at, they don’t have to bet them but like you say, people can look at the picks as pointers and add them together with there own themes, i do this a lot and it does work, if i fancy some horses in one race but in another i can’t seem to decide what to pick, i now have the choice to use your judgment in that race, niceone, hope we land a few
Ben Pearson
January 7, 2013 at 4:01 pm
Aaargh! Should have done the JACKPOT. All six winners on A. 36 £1 bets = £36. Return about £2,000!
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 4:53 pm
looks like a good start to this post if i have checked results correctly. when appropriate can you inform us what the dividend was.
well done.
Josh W
January 7, 2013 at 4:53 pm
Divvy will come back £9.40 only.
Still those who played the basic A’s will have recouped stakes; those playing Advanced will have lost around £20.
That’s the game with the placepot: you have to win twice – once with the horses and once against the other punters.
We’ll have some fun with this along the way, as finding six winners was this afternoon (SP accumulator paid £3,069.77!)
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 4:58 pm
thanks matt i dont do accumulator bets but had a few quid here and there based on your A bets and cleared tidy profit. as I know nothing about sand racing it was quite a bit of fun – as you suggested – and all for free-what are they complaining about? Unless I am mistaken you have won havent you? cheers john
john purnell
January 7, 2013 at 4:57 pm
Brilliant write up as usual Matt and an interesting addition to Monday’s.
Matt’s Betbuilder changed the way I approach the Placepot – I would advise anyone who hasn’t used it to have a little play around with it yourselves, eventually bringing your own angle and judgement to the way you use the Betbuilder.
To those who think it’s better to ‘perm the selections on one slip’ I was LUCKY enough to win the Placepot on the Saturday of Glorious Goodwood, I had a variety of .25p lines and .50p lines. Using Matt’s Betbuilder, I had 12 tickets and the total stake was £57, if I had placed all the selections on one slip it would have cost me 2 and a half K! I was fortunate to have 4 winning tickets – 1 at .25 and 3 at .50p giving me 1.75 placepot win.
Tony Mac
January 7, 2013 at 5:01 pm
Thanks Tony – and yes, you did manage to win several thousand quid on that bet!
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 7, 2013 at 6:10 pm
Enjoyed following that Matt, thanks.
Ronnie Combo
January 7, 2013 at 5:02 pm
well done, Matt – I did the As – better than a poke in the eye.
Andy
Andy N
January 7, 2013 at 5:07 pm
That’s part of the equation Matt as you know but the positive point to take out of the scenario is that you are on form, irrespective of the fact that the places did not go your way.
The ‘block builder’ perms you offered could have offered profits with one other horse displacing another….that’s the beauty of the bet, because it is a bet within a bet, just like forecast doubles on the greyhounds used to be when they were declared via tote dividends.
The minute the layers became mean formulating’ returns, the bet was dead.
Mal Boyle
January 7, 2013 at 5:18 pm
Well i dont know a lot about piling them all into one bet as always a on the nose winner . but i think your A group came up trumps as several winners and not always the shortest. congratulations. be good to know how much it paid out.
Chris
January 7, 2013 at 5:22 pm
Well done Matt. I just popped along to have a read what was going today at Geegeez and how frustrating that you picked all the winners…would’ve been a nice pot to lift on a dire Monday racing card!
Eamon
January 7, 2013 at 5:26 pm
The problem with any kind of permed selection process is choosing the best type of bet.
For me doing a placepot is too much work for the likely return, but then I don’t bet for fun.
Perhaps in future you might do a small Jackpot on your A’s alongside your Placepot, It looks like you wouldn’t need to win too often to make it pay.
ianf0ster
January 7, 2013 at 5:52 pm
Very good result today. I would keep it to the flat racing, as I have found that favourites sometimes fall or are pulled-up, causing complete failure. The art is in the working out you do to reach the desired horses.
Again excellent result.
andyb
January 7, 2013 at 5:56 pm
well i have never done a place pot and prob still hav,nt as i didn,t know what i was doing so went for doubles @5p and trebles at @2p covering all your horses multiplied my bet money by 500%
so i,m happy
regards
john
john.a
January 7, 2013 at 6:30 pm
The comment form Andy B is interesting because it very much depends on what you are looking from an investors perspective. There are more reasons for supporting NH toteplacepots, basically for two reasons.
There are more predictable results (the flat average is invariably higher the the NH equivalent–Novice Hurdle races being the most predictable to forecast), whilst the ‘bet within a bet’ rears its wonderful head because if your horse is out in front, you have more time to consider the plight of the favourite, especially if you have opposed the market leader.
For the smaller investor, favourites finishing out of the frame are key for landing a huge dividend, especially when non runners are involved.
Mal Boyle
January 7, 2013 at 7:02 pm
I often do a small stakes placepot with no favorites and follow on totelive website. I notice just how overbet the favorites are.
huey
January 7, 2013 at 9:25 pm