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After a weekend of R&R, placepot picker is back on duty and limbering up for Royal Ascot patrol. It’s dire fare today, even by Monday standards, but all races have win and places, so let’s have a dig at Carlisle biggish fields…
2.15 – Leg 1: A juvenile maiden to get us started, and eleven go over six good to firm furlongs. There’s probably not much of a draw bias here, but if there is it might favour low marginally. Ixelle’s Diamond is the sort to field against. She’s had two runs already and therefore has less scope to improve than most of these and, whilst the return to six will help, she just looks moderate.
Of more interest is Mr Matthews, who was a nose in front of Ixelles last time, and will come on for that run; and Kirkstall Abbey, another first-to-second-run improver, having looked very green in the early stages on debut before running on late.
I might add some B ballast here too, as I think the top of the market could be a bit tame. Disclosure drops in grade and is from a respected yard. Although he might ultimately end up in seven furlong nurseries, this step up in trip will definitely help, as will the step down in class.
Michael Dods is pretty good with first time out juveniles, so Trinity Star is respected and makes B.
A – 3 (Kirkstall Abbey), 5 (Mr Matthews)
B – 1 (Trinity Star), 2 (Disclosure)
2.45 – Leg 2: In all probability, this is not as competitive as it looks. Plenty of these are badly out of form, and the safe options are Bunce and Oil Strike. The former has run well the last twice and gets a first time visor to stop him being worried out of it late. Meanwhile, the latter has been well supported by shrewd connections on his first run of the season. Given that he was rated as high as 92 a couple of year back and is now rated just 69, he has obvious scope to pick these up and carry them.
A – 2 (Oil Strike), 3 (Bunce)
3.15 – Leg 3: The second division of the same sprint handicap and this is much deeper. The two I like are Who’s Shirl and Little Jimmy Oddsox, both of which are favoured by conditions today. Needy McReedie and Circuitous are added in a very tricky affair.
A – 1 (Who’s Shirl) 6 (Little Jimmy Oddsox)
B – 4 (Circuitous), 7 (Needy McReedie)
3.45 – Leg 4: A 3yo handicap alas. Most of them look mediocre, and two which might be better are Wadacre Sarko, for Mark Johnston, and Attention Seaker for Tim Easterby. Wadacre Sarko ran a two length third on his first handicap attempt last time and looks like he’ll go close again. Attention Seaker has had three runs at around this trip in maiden company, and will also relish taking on animals of similarly poor quality. He’s getting better with experience.
A – 5 (Attention Seaker), 6 (Wadacre Sarko)
4.15 – Leg 5: Five of the thirteen slated to run in this mile handicap have already been withdrawn, and one more will make it two places only. Royal Holiday is the one to ‘get’ here. His six wins are comprised of five Southwell victories and a soft turf win last time. I simply do not expect him to run a race on this fast ground (0 places from 3 on good to firm), but I do expect him to take plenty of support in the placepot pool.
Alluring Star is much more, well, alluring, with his record of two from three here, one in better class. King Pin has dropped quickly back to a workable mark, after running over an inadequate trip last time. He too loves fast turf and a mile, and will be there at the death.
A – 2 (King Pin), 5 (Alluring Star)
4.45 – Leg 6: We close with a hellish 3yo fillies’ handicap. At least the favourite – Silkelly – has won her last two races, the latter easily under similar conditions to today. She’s an A banker even though she’s up in class, but I’ll add some B insurance as well.
Tussie Mussie has been going well in Class 4 on fast ground without quite winning. Elle Woods was a good juvenile and has been run over trips shy of what breeding suggests is her optimal. Today she gets the chance to show what she can do at the trip for which she was bred, and I expect her to improve. So do plenty of others, judged by market support.
A – 3 (Silkelly)
B – 1 (Elle Woods), 2 (Tussie Mussie)
Just A’s – 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 32 bets
All picks – 4 x 2 x 4 x 2 x 2 x 3 = 384 bets
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