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Well, that was a rather spectacular Saturday for geegeez readers. The survey results said readers wanted Saturday previews, and I took that on board, starting the Saturday before last with the final day of Newmarket’s July meeting. That post highlighted three winners, including 12/1 Heaven’s Guest, and the Saturday scorchers were to continue this weekend just passed.
This time, four races were previewed, with winners at early prices of 16/1, 9/2 and 9/2. That trio’s SP’s were 7/1, 5/2 and 9/4, showing the value of taking early prices. The fourth race was the Irish Oaks, a no bet race for me (and flagged as such in the preview). Volume was selected there, and she was third, beaten two necks. The winner was 10/1 Bracelet, about which I wrote,
If O’Brien is to win a fourth Irish Oaks, and a first since a quick-fire hat-trick between 2006 and 2008, then it could be with the potentially under-rated Montjeu filly, Bracelet. She was a revelation when stepped up fully half a mile to this trip last time, winning the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’d previously shown she acts on a soft surface, and won there on good to firm, so there will be no fears with the ground however it manifests itself.
Although she disappointed in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, she has an otherwise progressive profile, and I have a sneaking suspicion she could just be the value amidst the burgeoning Ballydoyle battalion.
So that was a close but no cigar moment.
Elsewhere on the blog, Chris was also in spectacular form. His Stat of the Day pick won at 6/4, having been 11/4 early (when published), and Double Dutch rowed in with a 7.75/1 double.
I’m certain that nobody did this, but – just for fun – let me tell you that the cumulative odds for the three big race winners and the three geegeez tipping service winners were:
17 x 5.5 x 5.5 x 3.75 x 8.75 = 16,873/1
Oh for a fiver on that little lot!
Setting aside the greedy fantasist in me, I was delighted to record a four figure return, and I know that plenty of readers collected pleasing sums in relation to their stakes. That makes me very happy indeed.
Clearly, I – and Chris – put up plenty of losers. But we consistently trumpet the need to side with value selections, and when it comes right, it can look spectacular.
A couple of quick updates on the Gold content now. Firstly, the ‘Hot Form’ report now has win and each way profit and loss calculations within it. This is demonstrated in the below image, which shows horses who won one of their previous races within the last 60 days. You can see which races have worked out well, and which look not so hot…
Also new and improved – actually, improved in this case – is the Last Winning Rating calculation on the Instant Expert tab. Until yesterday, this rating flagged a horse’s last winning rating irrespective of code.
So, for instance, It’s A Mans World (8.45 Beverley) won three starts ago over hurdles off a rating 119. Today he runs in a flat race off 69, and his last flat win was from a rating of 73. Yesterday, this would have displayed on Instant Expert as T(oday) 69 L(ast winning rating) 119 D(ifference) 50.
Whilst that’s not technically wrong, it adds no value to the analysis.
Today, the figures are T 69 L 73 D 4 – which is much more meaningful, and flags It’s A Mans World as a potentially well-handicapped horse (without looking at any other element of how his profile maps to today’s race).
Personally, I’m delighted we’ve finally been able to put this right, as it’s something I look to, especially with more exposed handicappers, many of whom have a class/ratings ceiling.
And lastly, we’ve tweaked the code on the pace and odds tabs to make things much faster. No change to the content, but you’ll see it in a flash.
For those of you not on Gold, we’ll be placing the Hot Form report and Then What content behind the Gold line in the middle of this week. So if you like it, now would be a good time to take an extended look at all of the Gold offering – including of course those excellent Stat of the Day picks (currently +220.5 points since November 2011).
“Then What?” is a pertinent question with regards to blog content too. It’s a quiet week this week, though many winners will be highlighted from the Gold cards. But, next week, we go ballistic with the GGG Festival combo: Glorious Goodwood and Galway. So that’s Geegeez Gold for Glorious Goodwood and Galway. Or GGG for GGG. (Laboured? Moi?!)
I’m looking forward to Goodwood even more than normal this year. It’s a meeting where I traditionally attend on the Friday, and get drunk with some of my racing mates. And this year will be no exception. (I’ll mainly be in the paddock-side bar if you want to buy me a Pimm’s!!).
But, earlier in the week, I’m delighted to be taking on Race Maker duties on the Wednesday and Thursday. Race Makers, like the Games Makers who were their inspiration, are there to help racing newcomers get to grips with the action. From ‘where are the loos?’ to ‘how do I place a bet?’, and everything in between.
In one way, it’s nice to give something back to the sport I love. But actually, that’s a bit self-worthy. I’m actually really looking forward to helping out on a couple of racing’s big days. It promises to be a lot of fun, so – if you see me – be sure and heckle me. (And if you’re there all week, heckle me on Wednesday/Thursday, and buy me a Pimm’s on Friday!).
The Games Maker initiative is an excellent one, and I’m thrilled to be a part of it.
Across the sea in Galway, two things are certain: booze will be popular and the best racing system known to man will be successful once again.
Progressive staking is not everyone’s cup of tea, but this one works because of the genius of one man. Here are the rules:
1. Back Dermot Weld in non-handicaps
2. Stop at a winner
It’s bomb proof, and if you have to wait three runners to collect, it’s been a difficult year…!
It’ll likely be a quiet week on the blog this week – though Double Dutch and Stat of the Day will make their daily appearances, natch – as I’m focused on raising the profile of geegeez.co.uk and its Gold subscription offering.
You can help with this too, if you’d like. How? Simple stuff, like
a. tweeting or re-tweeting geegeez.co.uk posts on twitter
b. ‘liking’ things on facebook (we’re going to finally have a ‘geegeez’ facebook page this week!)
c. telling your mates (good old fashioned email, or even conversation!!!)
If you like what we do, and you’re in a position to tell others, Chris, myself and all of our other contributors really, REALLY appreciate your help in spreading the word. It’s amazing how many people haven’t heard of us… yet.
Thanks a million for reading and for anything you can do to share the love…