Ratings Data Added To Race Analysis Reports

Filed under: Blog,How to Bet |

The sharp-eyed amongst you will have noticed some new boxes on the Race Analysis Reports (RAR’s) today. There are some blue-edged boxes to the right and some (more) yellow boxes to the left. Let me explain what they are…

New ratings info on geegeez racecards

Ratings Comparison

First, the blue-edged boxes at the end of the RAR show a horse’s last winning rating (L), its rating today (T), and the difference between them (D).

T = Today’s rating
L = Last winning rating
D = Difference between them

They’re in blue because I couldn’t find any correlation between the ratings difference and a horse’s winning chance, so couldn’t make some green, and some red!

Note that where a horse’s rating is greyed out it means that the horse has either not won a race, or was unrated when it last won (for instance, first time out in a maiden).

NB Even when looking at the place data, the ratings information relates to last WINNING rating.

So, how to use the ratings information? Well, that’s actually a good question. The below is offered as food for thought only, and not as the de facto approach.

I had expected during my research to find a correlation between the last winning rating differential and a horse’s winning chance, either in terms of win percentage or in ‘bottom line’ (i.e. return on investment) terms. I didn’t.

But what I did note was that horses tend to win more often when racing off a higher mark than their last winning rating, especially if they’ve won in their last ten starts. However, their return on investment was lower than those racing off a lower mark.

Put another way, horses higher in the ratings than their last win DO win more often, BUT they are MORE EXPENSIVE to follow.

See, I told you it wasn’t straightforward!

It does seem that a figure of plus- or minus- seven pounds from a horse’s last win is marginally better than a broader disparity, but it’s not sufficient to present in ‘traffic light’ format.

So there you have it, the ratings data. It might be useful and it might not. I’ll let you decide…

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A quick way to bet or tip your fancy…

Also new to the Race Analysis Reports – and the Full Horse Form tab too – are ‘quick pick’ buttons.

Alongside the horse name you’ll see their odds, and two yellow boxes with ‘Bet’ and ‘Tip’ inside them.

When you’ve decided which horse you fancy, clicking on either the odds or the ‘Bet’ button will take you straight to the bookie to place your bet.

And the odds shown are the ‘Best Odds’, which will automatically route you to the bookmaker paying the best available odds on that horse. After all, that makes a good bit more sense than only showing one bookmaker, like some sites we could mention (no names… RacingPost.com  )

And, if you’re playing in the tipping league (why on earth wouldn’t you be? It’s free and there are prizes!), then just click the ‘Tip’ button to go straight through and tip up your horse.

The Bet and Tip buttons also now appear on the Full Horse Form, in my opinion a still much under-used tool with real power. The filters contained there are better than any I’ve seen on any site, free or paid.

Bet and Tip from the Form Filters

We’re still working on bringing you more great features on these cards, including the promised pace reports, and odds comparison grids too. Further down the line, we plan to bring you the next day’s cards (including form filters and race analysis reports), plus a ‘best suited…’ report, highlighting those horses with the best course, distance, class or going profiles, and a horse/trainer/jockey tracker function.

All of these will, as you’ve come to expect, be free for registered users. So get used to the geegeez race cards, because they’re here to stay and they’re likely to be challenging the ‘big boys’ sooner rather than later.

Matt

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Ratings Data Added To Race Analysis Reports, 9.9 out of 10 based on 20 ratings

16 Responses to Ratings Data Added To Race Analysis Reports

1. Brilliant, thanks for the addition Matt. This kind of functionality will be really handy for me when looking over handicaps – although the strike rate isn’t great, horses running well under their last winning mark do sometimes pop up at big prices. If nothing else this is good way of spotting potential plot horses in a race.

Steve
October 8, 2013 at 4:50 pm

• Exactly Steve – it’s not a linear relationship, hence no green/amber/red, but that’s not to say it has no utility. I think it will help a lot of punters out.

Best,
Matt

Matt Bisogno
October 8, 2013 at 4:57 pm

2. Have a look at the RAR place stats for the 5.45 at Leicester. Saw Barista this morning but didn’t back. Aaaargh!
Still great stuff Matt, best punting site on the web.

Ron Combo
October 8, 2013 at 6:00 pm

• Ouch! Not to worry, there will be another along in a day or two

Matt

Matt Bisogno
October 8, 2013 at 7:41 pm

3. Lovely Double today Matt…Dangerous Game and Azrag. Only 2 I backed thanks to RAR!

Cheers!!!

Gary
October 8, 2013 at 8:19 pm

• Nice work, Gary!

Matt Bisogno
October 8, 2013 at 9:14 pm

4. Quick Question Matt

I take it the rating you mean is the OR rather than the RPR?

Thanks George

george
October 10, 2013 at 9:19 am

• Hi George

Yes, absolutely the Official Rating (OR). I don’t understand how RPR’s are put together and so wouldn’t trust them to be published on the Race Analysis Reports!

Best,
Matt

Matt Bisogno
October 10, 2013 at 9:23 am

5. Matt
More good work thank you. One factor I find fundamental is stable form – whatever its rating, a horse from an underperforming stable will also underperform. I use the data tab on RP for this – but I’m sure you could make something better. Well, you wanted something to do, didn’t you….?

ian
October 10, 2013 at 9:43 am

• Hi Ian,

Yes, always looking for something to do. Very quiet here.

We’ve a few things in the pipeline just now, and I’m not sure how easy it would be to do what you suggest, as you need to account for number of stable runners, odds, how many horses they beat/are beaten by… in other words, the effort to create something meaningful may not justify itself for what would probably be used by a relatively small group of punters.

That’s a qualified way of saying ‘probably not’. However, do please keep the ideas coming, as we’ll try to incorporate what we can.

Best,
Matt

Matt Bisogno
October 10, 2013 at 9:49 am

6. hi matt
just thought I would like to add my piece as a way of thanks. I use my own ratings to sort my horses and it takes forever. However by using the race ratings on geegeez for going, course, distance and field i have chopped at least twenty minutes off each race that I rate. I would also love to see the ratings produced the day before as you have just suggested, that way i can have most of the work done the night before, leaving me a lot more free time the next morning.
thanks again leigh

leigh goodall
October 10, 2013 at 11:11 am

7. Nice one Matt. I was one who requested this kind of analysis. My idea of using it is to highlight any patterns to the ratings of horses that I am following. Having been fooled by visual performances too many times I think a broader knowledge of a horses past performances and ratings can help greatly when trying to predict if and when they will win/lose. Your overall form and RAR pages are the easiest and best way of doing this. Thanks

jim
October 10, 2013 at 11:23 am

8. Excellent Matt,saves me loads of time.
Thanks again

tony
October 10, 2013 at 11:56 am

9. Hello Matt. The cards are great. I can’t wait for the pace addition. It’s a shame that my Windows ‘phone only works on I.E. because during the day Monday to Friday, (‘Cos I don’t work in an office), I can’t access them. So next day cards will be a welcome feature. Dave.

Dave
October 10, 2013 at 5:59 pm

• Hi Dave

This should now be resolved, please do try on your phone, and let me know.

Thanks,
Matt

Matt Bisogno
October 10, 2013 at 7:26 pm