RSA Chase 2013 Preview, Trends, Tips
Can Dynaste win the RSA Chase 2013?
RSA Chase 2013 Preview, Trends, Tips
There are just 67 days until the start of the Cheltenham Festival 2013 and, in time honoured tradition, you’ll find a hatful of tips and previews, as well as full day by day analysis, here at Geegeez.
Following on from our Champion Hurdle preview, let’s now look at the RSA Chase 2013, the staying championship for novice chasers.
Let’s start by taking a look at the main trends for RSA Chase, some of which are surprisingly strong and lean away from the top of the market. Using the excellent horseracebase big race analysis tool, I’ve looked at the last fifteen years to draw the following inferences.
First of all, while all bar one of the last fifteen RSA Chase winners finished first or second on their final completed start (eight winners and six runners up), only four winners were sent off market leader, and only two more were sent off as second favourite.
Indeed, six of the fifteen winners were double figure prices, including 16/1 twice, 25/1 and 33/1. So perhaps the RSA Chase is a race in which to take a bit of a flyer…
All bar four of the last fifteen winners were aged seven, and all fifteen were between five and eight. I’m happy to exclude any horse older than that.
The RSA Chase is a very good race, so it comes as no surprise that only two horses with a rating were rated lower than 143.
All bar three of those fifteen RSA Chases were won by a horse with between three and five chase starts to their name (3 runs-3; 4-6; 5-3); and all bar two were won by a horse with one to three chase wins to their name (1 win-5;2-5;3-3).
That last stat – that ten of the last fifteen RSA Chase winners had won over fences no more than twice – surprised me considerably, so I’m definitely looking for a lightly raced type.
Irish bred horses have won thirteen of the fifteen races in question (from 119 starters), with Frenchies claiming the other two, from a group of 34 who tried.
During the decade and a half in question, Irish-trained runners have won five, from 46 runners, for a profit of 13.63 units. Three of that quintet were trained by Willie Mullins, with Jessie Harrington and Charles Byrnes completing the set.
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have each trained two winners during that time, from 23 combined runners, for a profit of 5.7 points.
One final stat which bears consideration is that the Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton is widely held to be the pre-eminent trial for the RSA Chase. But, whilst horses have come from that race to win at Cheltenham (for instance, Bobs Worth last year), no horse in the history of the Feltham has won that race and the RSA.
Plenty have tried, including in last 15 years Grands Cru 6/5F; Long Run 11/4; Joe Lively 7/1; Ungaro 11/1; Darkness 11/2; Jair du Cochet 4/1; Maximize 9/1; Lord Of The River 11/2; and, Fiddling The Facts 9/2.
Dynaste is the beast to try to lay that ghost to rest, and he’s a best priced 5/2 to do that. He’s rated 161 over fences; has won all three of his novice chases, including around Cheltenham and, as I’ve mentioned, in the Feltham. It’s very hard to crab what he’s done, but then it was the same with Grands Crus and Long Run and the others.
Of course, Dynaste can win. But at 5/2, given the open nature of this race historically, I’m inclined to look elsewhere for a bet.
RSA Chase Trends ‘box tickers’
Those from the top dozen or so in the ante-post betting that tick all the boxes are as follows:
Dynaste (though he did win the Feltham, implying that speed rather than stamina is his forte; and he is French bred, when I favour Irish bred’s), Boston Bob, Back In Focus, Aupcharlie, Hadrian’s Approach, Super Duty, Highland Lodge
RSA Chase 2013 Early Form Thoughts
After Dynaste, next in the betting is the Willie Mullins pair, Boston Bob and Back In Focus. Boston Bob chased home Brindisi Breeze last year, and represents the form of that race (Neptune) after the sad demise of the winner. This is the same path trodden by that other Bob, s Worth, and Boston Bob duly won his fencing debut in mid-December.
But, it has to be said, it would be very hard to get excited about the bare form there. Sure, it was heavy ground, which has been the cause of his only defeat outside of the Festival and his narrowest wins. And sure, he’s entitled to improve a bundle. And sure, he jumped extremely well in the main.
If the ground comes up better, then he’s got a definite chance because he has plenty of class. But the RSA Chase is usually won by tenacity more than class. Think Denman, Bobs Worth, Hussard Collonges.
Back In Focus, like Dynaste, is three from three over fences, most recently winning the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. He looks like he almost certainly needs it soft and, by the law of averages, I’m still expecting a dry spell between now and mid-March. Certainly, if it came up boggy, he’d be a player, but a player to back on the day, perhaps.
Aupcharlie (presumably pronounced, Ay-oop-Charlie) is a 16/1 shot and he looks interesting to me. He’s got a plum RSA profile, with two runs so far, one win, he’s a seven year old, he was third in the Cheltenham bumper of 2011, and he looks like ground just on the soft side of good will be ideal.
Aupcharlie travelled like the winner that last day, when just getting chinned in the final strides by Back In Focus. I’m not sure he necessarily didn’t stay, but that was his first attempt at three miles and I’d imagine he’d have an entry in the shorter Jewson Novices Chase too.
Unioniste is a 20/1 shot and this classy young thing surely can’t live with the grinders that typically take home the spoils here… can he? He was getting all the weight when prevailing against more experienced nags in a Grade 3 handicap chase last time, and there would be definite trip questions with him too. I very much like this one, but not in the context of the RSA Chase.
Arvika Ligeonniere is three years older than when palpably not staying in the 2010 Albert Bartlett, and it may be that he’s strengthened up since then. But the fact that he’s been campaigned at no further than two and a half miles – and shown enough speed to win a Grade 1 over two miles – leads me to think he hasn’t strengthened up enough. He’s another which must get entries elsewhere and as such doesn’t look like an ante-post wager to my eye.
Hadrian’s Approach doesn’t jump well enough to be considered, though he will probably be a fair bit shorter on the day than his current 20/1 odds.
Super Duty is just the type of street fighter to do well in the RSA. He’s ultra tough, as he showed when battling to a thirteen length win in the novices’ chase at the last Cheltenham meeting of 2012. And he’s consistent – five wins, three seconds, and a tumble from nine starts. A handicap mark of 139 implies he’s a bit to find – a fair bit, perhaps – and his probable range of entries make him a precarious proposition two months ahead of time.
And finally from the group under consideration, Highland Lodge is of interest. Emma Lavelle’s seven-year-old Irish-bred is by sire of the moment, Flemensfirth, and looks an out and out stayer. Add to that the fact that he’s ground agnostic and you have an intriguing contender. Rated only 141, he may have another run between now and the Festival, giving him the chance to boost that into ‘the zone’. Either way, he has an otherwise impeccable profile for a race like the RSA and is a temptingly juicy 25/1 in a place (generally 20′s and 16′s).
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So, where does all that leave us? Dynaste is short enough in a race where favourites, Frenchies and Feltham winners have a poor record. He’s overlooked in search of that ethereal little beauty called value.
Mullins’ B’s, Boston Bob and Back In Focus, have chances too. Of the pair, I’m slightly leaning towards Back In Focus, especially if the ground stays squidgy; and I also respect the second horse in that race, Aupcharlie.
Stamina, class and/or jumping concerns eliminate Arvika Ligeonniere, Hadrian’s Approach and the loveable Super Duty from my mind, which leaves Highland Lodge as my ante-post pick.
RSA Chase 2013 Ante Post Tip: Highland Lodge, 1pt win 25/1 sportingbet. Now 16/1 with sportingbet, so take BetVictor’s 20/1, which is non-runner free bet (best offer online just now).
23 Responses to RSA Chase 2013 Preview, Trends, Tips
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Interesting you put up Highland Lodge on the day I almost ripped up my 50-1 ticket. The Emma LAvelle interview in the Weekender doesnt give you much hope that it will even run, with her saying it would have to be”very soft, and we will stop with him this year as soon as the ground starts to dry”
Mark
January 3, 2013 at 7:49 pm
That’s interesting, for sure. But he’s got form on good to soft, and looks and out and out stayer. Emma Lavelle loves a Festival winner, too, and has a great record in the race, so it’s surprising to hear she’s toying with skipping the RSA Chase.
Matt Bisogno
January 3, 2013 at 8:24 pm
LOL. That old cliche. Name a trainer that doesn’t love a festival winner. Doesnt strengthen the case!
Mark
January 3, 2013 at 8:49 pm
Not a cliche, Mark. It’s based on her stats. Two wins and four placed from 15 runners priced 20/1 or shorter. Profitable to back. HL will be 20/1 or shorter if it lines up and you can get a free bet from VC – see revision above – if he doesn’t. He’s the one for me.
Best,
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 3, 2013 at 8:56 pm
I’m now recommending BetVictor’s 20/1, which is non-runner free bet, in case the trainer has a rush of blood and decides not to run him.
Matt Bisogno
January 3, 2013 at 8:46 pm
Great read Matt am going straight to sky bet to have a small punt thanx.
Pete
January 3, 2013 at 8:27 pm
its not really a free £50 bet at sporting bet, you have to place a £10 if it looses you can claim a £50 bet free. at least thats the way i read it
john a.
January 3, 2013 at 8:39 pm
It’s a risk free bet, John. If your bet loses, they’ll give you another bet to the same stake.
Best,
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 3, 2013 at 8:40 pm
You obviously move markets Matt!! Highland Lodge cut to 16/1 with Sportingbet.Best price 20/1 now with Bet365,Paddy Power and BetVictor.I suggest using Victor as they’re non runner free bet on Festival bets.
Ian
January 3, 2013 at 9:07 pm
stats and trends well how about one of the biggest trends against a national winner was a french bred horse,now its two in three years?i will check both horses on sporting life site i am thinking aupcharlie we will see you can only have one sel in each race with guarantee i have backed kentford grey lady at 14-1 now 6-1 sizing europe in ryanair add my old friend aim to prosper in the neptune lets hope they do the right thing and run them in the right races but well done to victor,its still a nightmare i like to do lucky 15 ect another trend gone in ces with double winner aim to prosper?
richard firth
January 3, 2013 at 10:13 pm
Hi Richard
Just to say, I’m pretty sure you can have two selections per race. http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/cheltenham-2013#terms
Best Regards,
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 4, 2013 at 10:46 am
Any person risking their money on antepost betting for chelt are in my eyes spendthrift just listen to any trainer no one knows if the horses are ready because of bad weather and need runs into them never mind which race they will run in or run at, all all for the sake of a points its a bookmaker money making machine leave well alone. I have seen the antepost claims but for the sake of a few pound wait
pth (@pth61)
January 4, 2013 at 6:07 am
Thanks Matt great piece of research mixed with opinion
I’m not one for AP ordinarily as hard enough on the day to find a winner let alone two months+ in advance ,as well as the NR scenario that is a killer is always looming large
But a little tickle at VCs still 20/1 with NR/NB is worth following
And which trainer of a plotted winner ever told a publication that they fancied the hell out of it
Not many.
If sporting have cut it from 25s to 16s after that interview , is it geegeez readers piling in ,or connections ? Maybe both
Well done mark for getting it at 50/1 …and for raising the trainer interview .. All may not yet be lost
Good luck Matt with this and look forward to other previews to come
Johnny5
January 4, 2013 at 6:47 am
Interesting article Matt. Boston Bob was 2nd in Albert Bartlett last year same race won by Bobs Worth over 3m. Willie Mullins plans to keep back in focus and Aupcharlie apart rest of season and mentioned RSA chase best option for back in focus. That leaves Jewson for Aupcharlie a big player…
Nicky Doyle (Betalchemist)
January 4, 2013 at 8:37 am
Highland Lodge doesn’t cut it on the class profile yet, not having finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase which is a prerequisite, so he needs to step up. With the strong record of the Irish and the value of Albert Bartlett form (2 RSA winners and a NH Hcap chase winner from 5 runnings) , Boston Bob looks very interesting, provided he shows his ability in a grade 1 or grade 2 trial race
laurence f
January 4, 2013 at 9:11 am
Matt
I read it as saying you can have as many bets in a race as you want but the maximum refund per race will be £100. So you could have five £20 bets or one £100 bet. All this is subject to £500 in total over the whole meeting.
Tim
January 4, 2013 at 11:42 am
Thanks Tim – I’m sure I’d read before that there was a max of two selections per race, but I can’t see that now. Do note however that if you back the same horse in more than one race and it doesn’t run in either/any of them, you’ll only be refunded on the first bet (which is fair enough, I think).
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 4, 2013 at 12:17 pm
matt quite right about how many selections your last post spells out the danger with refunds which is what i ment,ante post can be a nightmare but this is the best of a bad job,i could tell you a few stories about lost ante post money,so this is good with victor i have already beat the book with three selections of course you are forced into another bet if yours is a non-runner but let me just say to pth comments, first time aim to prosper won the cesarewitch i backed him at 110-1 on betfair three weeks before race while the price was right what price was he on the day with the added problem of our old friend pricewise tipping it,sorry but i hate him last year i backed him at 140-1 weeks before the race and won a lot more ,mind i was no where near so confident that time but small money big win i also had a new story in the cross country race at cheltenham again two or tree weeks before(is that irish) at 75-1 and 55-1 and its the only race the horse has won since 2005 check this horses places irish nat and cross country i love him,so if you are afraid ante post and rightly so not a nice feeling no run for the money vcbet or very small money on betfair,i went big ew on overturn last year this year i have gone ew on a horse at an absolute outrageous price on betfair,if it runs at cheltenham the only other option is the county hurdle with big weight so i am hopeing the owners are sporting with an improving irish horse phew and thank you
richard firth
January 4, 2013 at 4:15 pm
Hi Matt,
Re Ayoopcharlie, if you saw the race he came effortlessly from almost last to take the lead, and the reason he lost was nothing to do with stamina but making a huge hash of the last fence. If that had not happened he would have won. I know because I not only watched the race but had a fair e/w bet on the beast. Obviously I ‘won’, but you don’t need me to tell you the difference between first and a place. Quite frankly with 11 2nd places today on my wagers I could get 2nd in a walkover. I think it is time to stop wagering for a few weeks.
Philip
P.S. While I love reading your dissection of races, and others, there is one thing life has taught me regarding Cheltenham and other big race meetings (flat and jumps), there will be some bugger you have never heard off storming past the winning line and you couldn’t have found it if you had studied form from now until the crack of doom. HNY (belatedly).
Philip Clayton aka The Pennies Punter
January 6, 2013 at 12:20 am
Watched the race today. You can now get 33-1. Cannot see it lining up at Chelt. Glad I decided to wait. I like Union Dues in Chelt Bumoers race. Got 20-1, now 10-1.
What are your thoughts. All the best to everyone.
tony flair
January 12, 2013 at 10:02 pm
Hi Tony
I’ve never backed the winner of the bumper and it’s not a race I bother to look at. Loads of horses which have run and won once or twice. How are you supposed to fathom which has the best form, or which will improve the most?!
Re Highland Lodge, the lining up is the question. If he does, he’ll go close. He’s a bloody good horse that didn’t give his running today, and Cheltenham’s 3m 1/2f test will suit him down to the ground in my opinion.
Matt
Matt Bisogno
January 12, 2013 at 10:53 pm
Highland Lodge did not like the warwick race course at all could be a shrewd move by the trainer or assistant trainer to run him at warwick knowing he would run out of steam on this tricky track
trevor
January 18, 2013 at 5:22 pm
Hi Matt, im already on Hadrian’s Approach at 25-1. If Mr henderson can sort his jumping out, those odds will look a bit tasty come race time.
cheers Man
Man
January 30, 2013 at 8:29 pm