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Stat of the Day, 15th February 2013
No merry go from Merigo yesterday, as he stopped quickly and was all but pulled up, tailing in a stuffed-out-of-sight last. It’s been that sort of a few days, with a last-first-last trio of SotD picks. At least the first was a 9/1 shot.
Today, it’s all or nothing in the four runner contest which is the…
There are only four runners, so we are only interested in winning, as there are no places to aim at. This afternoon’s selection is the outsider of four on the current betting, but I’m struggling to see why, based on form and a certain stat which is the basis for his entry here.
The stat relates to Island Life‘s performance in this grade, which reads four wins from five runs. (In his younger days, he’d won five races in Ireland too).
Those four wins were all in Class 6 hunter chases – today’s grade and race type – and they were all around this two and a half mile trip.
His last time out fifth is forgiveable for two clear reasons. Firstly, it was his first run for nine months, and he always takes a race to get close to fitness. And secondly, that race, although a hunter chase, was actually a Class 3 contest featuring five horses officially rated 120 or higher.
In today’s contest, the favourite, Bold Addition, almost certainly wants faster ground and may or may not be fit in any case after a year and a half off the track; the second favourite, Herecomesthetruth, hasn’t won under rules since 2009; and the third favourite, Rash Move is a twelve year old now.
Of course, any one of the quartet could win this, but in my view only one of them is seriously over-priced so to do and, combined with his stats, he’s a sporting wager, win only natch. 8/1 BOG with bet365.