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Stat of the Day, 19th February 2013
No joy from Camden George yesterday and a change in author of SotD today, as Matt takes a break from this part of the site. We’re off to the South West today for a very competetive looking, six-runner, Class 2, Handicap hurdle where the going is definitely heavy for the horses tackling the 2m 1f trip for the..
Taunton, like many UK courses, has its own little quirks and nuances and past course form always helps here. Today’s SotD is all about a horse trying to tick all the boxes.
Previous Course Form? Finished 112 here in 3 runs this winter so far.
Course & Distance? All three races above were at this trip
Yes, but what about the going? All three were also on heavy ground.
Our selection today, Home Run, is actually 3/5 on heavy ground and whilst the going is unlikely to change, he’s also 2/3 on soft and he’s trained by David Pipe, who’s no mug himself.
Home Run is having a really good winter over the hurdles and completed a five-timer in less than four weeks on New Year’s Day at Musselburgh, all on soft or heavy ground and at at varying distances from 2m to 2m 3f, so he shouldn’t be found wanting for stamina today. That winning run came to an end when he was second over C&D twelve days ago, but he actually seemed to have run better that day than in his wining streak and the 12-day (long by his recent standards!) rest will help today.
That last race saw him beaten by less than 3 lengths by a Nicholls/McCoy hotpot and despite his recent hike in weights (he runs off the same mark today), he remains in great form and I expect him to give us a good run for our money. I think the increased weight has affected bookmakers’ judgement on his chances today.
I expected to see him at around the 4/1 to 9/2 mark, but I’m happy to see him currently available at 13/2 with both Sporting Bet (non-BOG) and Corals (BOG), yet he’s as low at 100/30 in places. 0.5pts E/W at 13/2 BOG with Corals will return just as much as a 1pt win at 100/30, should he win, but we also get the insurance of a place finish with this one, so the call is 0.5pts E/W @ 13/2 BOG on Home Run with Corals, but you can, of course, always…