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Stat of the Day, 27th February 2013
In what is becoming a boringly predictable tale of woe this month, we drew another blank yesterday. Carmela Maria finished the race as strongly as we’d have liked her to, but I can’t help feeling that she came from way too far off the pace and despite closing in on the leading group with every stride, the line came too soon for her/us. The winner Everaard wasn’t getting caught once the unfortunate Stop On broke down, but had our charge been made earlier, we really could have grabbed a place, yet it ended up as 5th place at 10/1 for us.
We’re returning to the evening All-Weather scene today and a trip back South for a Class 5, 6 furlong handicap where eleven runners are set to go to post for the…
If I’m brutally honest, Luke Dace’s training record here at Kempton is fairly average. He has saddled just three winners here from thirty attempts in the last year, recording level stakes losses of 13pts at SP, whilst E/W backers have only seen a return on their money seven times on their way to a loss of over 25pts.
However, every cloud has a silver lining. All three winners were over today’s course and distance by the same horse: Alnoomas. This horse has an overall record here at Kempton of 971116 for a profit of 11pts, with him remaining unbeaten at C&D.
Alnoomaas has adapted very well to the Polytrack surface away from a pretty nondescript 4 races on turf. He has since won on four of his last eight starts, the latest of this victories being a C&D win on 2nd January, beating Lastkingofscotland, who then went on to win his next race over C&D.
Our selection wasn’t at this best last time out (5f race here a fortnight ago) when adopting a more patient approach to the race, but ended up having to run very wide. He finished some 7 lengths behind Picansort that day and the step back up to 6 furlongs seems the right move.
If the team return to their usual tactics of being towards the head of the pack, there’s no reason why Alnoomas can’t make it four from four over Course & Distance.
I’m expecting a good run in a race that’s there to be won today and William Hill, BetVictor & Paddy Power are all offering 8/1 BOG about our selection, so it’s a 1pt win bet on Alnoomas at 8/1 BOG. To take your pick of the bookies…