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Stat of the Day, 7th February 2013
Our poor week continued yesterday evening as Lucky Mark failed to even make the frame. He looked to have every chance rounding the home turn, but soon folded under pressure and looked to be eased down, once the race was lost.
We’re moving back to the turf and some jumps action today for an interesting-looking Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs, where we expect 10 runners to tackle the soft ground in the…
Trainer Jeremy Scott’s record at Huntingdon is absolutely fantastic and despite having a fairly lengthy training career, he has only really started coming here in the last 15 months or so. He does now seem to be making a real mark though, saddling seven winners from just fifteen entrants with a further three horses getting placed. His Huntingdon win strike rate of 46.7% has produced profits of just over 10pts at SP, whilst backing his horses to an E/W stake has given just over 15pts profit, with a return in 66.7% of races.
His strike rate is even better in hurdle events here, with five winners from ten and a further one horse placed. It is with these figures in mind that I keep half an eye out for Mr Scott’s horse appearing here and today sees a single entry in the form of Quaddick Lake.
This seasoned 10 yr old has enjoyed a new lease of life and has also found a level of consistency since moving to Jeremy’s yard in July 2012. The horse had hardly covered himself in glory during an indifferent career over both hurdles and chases for David Pipe before moving to Ashley Farrant in 2011. He ran in four chases for that yard without a great deal of success, before ending up with Mr Scott just under seven months ago.
The current yard obviously feel that Quaddick Lake needs to be kept busy, as today will be his 10th outing for them in just over six months and his form has been fantastic since the move. Jeremy decided to put the horse back hurdling and has been rewarded with figures of 1322211U3, by far his most consistent run of his career. Other than a fall 3 out at Kempton on Boxing Day, he hasn’t failed to make the first three home in nine races and blind backing of him would have netted 7pts at SP and 16pts for E/W backers.
He ran really well when 3rd (staying on) at Cheltenham on heavy ground last time out (12 days ago) and any repeat of that kind of run should see him go close today. This race is admittedly the best part of half a mile further and he has an extra 3lbs to contend, but stamina hasn’t been an issue with this old warrior: he has a win under his belt at 3m 1f and I don’t expect the ground to be a problem either, he has won on both of his last two outings on soft ground.
A further positive is the booking of jockey Nick Scholfield who appears to have built a decent rapport with the horse, as they are 1322113 together.
It’s not an easy race to call, but Jeremy Scott’s horses go well here and the horse is in the form of its life, placing consistently. The market shows just about enough wriggle room for a safety-first E/W bet, so I’m going with 0.5pts E/W on Quaddick Lake at 6/1 BOG with bet365, but as the day unfolds, you can always…