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Stat of the Day, 8th March 2013
SotD remains firmly on the cold list, as I seem unable to hit a cow’s @r$* with a banjo at present. Yesterday’s selection Flying Pickets seemed to have a chance of a place at the 2 pole, but failed to fly when asked. Our 9/1 shot had drifted out to 12/1 and finished 5th, a length and a half outside the money places.
We’re going chasing in Oadby today and it’s a 2 mile Novice Handicap Chase on soft ground, where eight runners will contest the …
It’s an all-chase card at Leicester today and when it comes to chasing at Leicester, there aren’t many with better records than Mrs Caroline Bailey.
In the four-year period between 2009 and the end of 2012, Caroline saddled up nine winners from 33 in chases here. This strike rate of 27.3% was enough to produce level stakes profits of 34pts (+103%) at SP, whilst the E/W backers saw a return on their money in 56.25% of races to the tune of 56.6pts = 88.4% profit.
Mrs Bailey has just one runner today and thus, by default, Refusal becomes today’s selection.
Refusal is actually still a maiden, but has looked progressive recently when finishing third in his last two starts, both here at Leicester. Today will be his sixth attempt over fences and despite not winning any of the previous five, his record which reads 34533 suggests he’s knocking on the door for at least a place today.
Last time out, he was third here over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs and that seemed too long for him and he should appreciate the drop back in trip to the minimum 2 miles, where ran pretty well on his penultimate outing in January. That was on heavy ground here and although he was staying on at the end, the slightly better ground should be an advantage for him today.
I think there’s definitely a win in this horse today, but his consistent place form allied to the good returns from his trainer in Leicester chases suggest that an E/W bet might well be tho order of the day. We’ll keep our fingers crossed that there’ll be no non-runners from the eight declared to run and we’ll stake 0.5pts E/W on Refusal at 13/2 BOG with Bet365. He was available (at 10.45am) at 8.20 / 2.75 on Betfair and also at 7/1 non-Bog (Sporting Bet), so to take your pick, simply…
P.S. Andrew Thornton takes the ride today and he was on board for 18 of those 33 chasers sent out by Mrs Bailey mentioned above. He scored seven wins and five places from those 18 rides. The 38.9% win strike rate and the 55.6% place strike made profits of 23.5pts (+130.6% POI) and 32.4pts (+89.9% POI) respectively.