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Stat of the Day, 9th February 2013
No joy yesterday from Prince Tam’s performance. As expected, he attempted to control the race from the front, but folded quite tamely once headed at the 7th fence before eventually being pulled up 2 from home. He was sent off at 9/2, so at least the traders had a little return.
Staffordshire is our port of call today for the last race on the card. This is a Class 4 Handicap Chase and the trip is two miles on soft ground for the seven runners in the…
I’m off to Uttoxeter myself today, so it’d be rude not to take SotD with me for a look at one of the less well-known names on the circuit. Most of the racing attention will be on the excellent cards at both Newbury and Leopardstown today, so we might just fly under the radar with this one.
Over the last two years, Nigel Hawke has a one in three strike rate here at Uttoxeter, with five winners from fifteen attempts. These winners have brought in an excellent 22.4pts at SP, a return of just under 150% of stakes, whilst those preferring the safer E/W option have still managed to bank 19.6pts.
Somewhat extraordinarily, all five wins have come in chase events, giving a strike rate of 50% and profits of 27.4pts (win bets) and 24.6pts (E/W). Figures like these are difficult to ignore on what is considered a “quirky” track and interest is further heightened when I see Nigel sending just one horse out to run.
Mr Hawke is represented by Anay Turge today, who despite creeping back up the weights, is actually enjoying the best form of his life. He has already tasted victory at Chepstow and Uttoxeter this season, including a Course and Distance win here on his first ever Uttoxeter outing on New Year’s Eve. He can be excused his latest result, when he was well beaten at Chepstow, finishing 5th of 7. His saddle slipped that day and posed all kinds of problems.
Today will be his 10th attempt at a chase event and he has finished in the first three home on seven of his previous nine races and during his career he has shown a liking for soft ground, making the frame on no less than 11 occasions in 18 starts. Should the weather deteriorate, and who knows what might happen nowadays, he has a win and a runner-up position from just three runs on heavy ground.
Today’s trip of the bare minimum two miles is also his optimum distance. Whilst not being a prolific winner, his record at the trip reads 2222231, there is an admittedly a loss on the win bets, but a decent return of 6.98pts for the E/W backers and all of these races have been on soft or heavy ground.
This horse does seem to be a perennial bridesmaid and this fact allied to the rise in weights means the safe option today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Anay Turge at 17/2 BOG with BetVictor (8/1 was widely available elsewhere at 0845), but you can always…