The Ultimate FX Predictor – Final Figures (Review To Follow)
Howdy all. Well, this is the final set of figures before the big round-up of opinions.
As always, these are the figures for those taking profit targets, not letting trades run and using three possible profit-taking points (+25pts, +30pts and +50pts) and three possible stop-loss points (-10pts, -15pts and -20pts).
They are bang up to date and are the final totals…
GBPUSD
5-min chart
61/108 trades (56.48%) made +25pts…+1055pts with 10pts stop…+820pts with 15pts stop…+585pts with 20pts stop.
55/108 trades (50.93%) made +30pts…+1120pts with 10pts stop…+855pts with 15pts stop…+590pts with 20pts stop.
38/108 trades (35.19%) made +50pts…+1200pts with 10pts stop…+850pts with 15pts stop…+500pts with 20pts stop.
15-min chart
30/35 trades (85.71%) made +25pts…+700pts with 10pts stop…+675pts with 15pts stop…+650pts with 20pts stop.
28/35 trades (80%) made +30pts…+770pts with 10pts stop…+735pts with 15pts stop…+700 with 20pts stop.
19/35 trades (54.29%) made +50pts…+790pts with 10pts stop…+710pts with 15pts stop…+630pts with 20pts stop.
30-min chart
16/18 trades (88.89%) made +25pts…+380pts with 10pts stop…+370pts with 15pts stop…+360pts with 20pts stop.
16/18 trades (88.89%) made +30pts…+460pts with 10pts stop…+450pts with 15pts stop…+440pts with 20pts stop.
14/18 trades (77.78%) made +50pts…+660pts with 10pts stop…+640pts with 15pts stop…+620pts with 20pts stop.
EURUSD
5-min chart
45/98 trades (45.92%) made +25pts…+595pts with 10pts stop…+330pts with 15pts stop…+65pts with 20pts stop.
40/98 trades (40.82%) made +30pts…+620pts with 10pts stop…+330pts with 15pts stop…+40pts with 20pts stop.
19/98 trades (19.39%) made +50pts…+160pts with 10pts stop…-235pts with 15pts stop…-630pts with 20pts stop.
15-min chart
26/44 trades (59.09%) made +25pts…+470pts with 10pts stop…+380pts with 15pts stop…+290pts with 20pts stop.
21/44 trades (47.73%) made +30pts…+400pts with 10pts stop…+285pts with 15pts stop…+170pts with 20pts stop.
17/44 trades (38.64%) made +50pts…+580pts with 10pts stop…+445pts with 15pts stop…+310pts with 20pts stop.
30-min chart
19/23 trades (82.61%) made +25pts…+435pts with 10pts stop…+415pts with 15pts stop…+395pts with 20pts stop.
18/23 trades (78.26%) made +30pts…+490pts with 10pts stop…+465pts with 15pts stop…+440pts with 20pts stop.
13/23 trades (56.52%) made +50pts…+550pts with 10pts stop…+500pts with 15pts stop…+450pts with 20pts stop.
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As mentioned previously, I have been tracking the 1-Hour chart for our two pairs as well and these are the figures below. It is more important to pay attention to the maximum high or low figure on these numbers, as quite often on the longer time-frames, moves will reverse back almost to their starting point and beyond and you would be using an early profit-take strategy for these, not letting them run. Using the 20-Period EMA as a help to determine the strength/weakness of the trend and helping judge your exit strategy is one way of maximising these H1 trades. The signals were not confined to the Trading Zones and the in and out points are the time of the candles’ opening…
GBPUSD
H1 chart
1st June 09.00 – 2nd June 02.00 Buy +70pts (+156pts)
2nd June 13.00 – 3rd June 01.00 Buy +57pts (+97pts)
4th June 09.00 – 4th June 13.00 Buy -59pts (+70pts)
5th June 14.00 – 5th June 14.00+ Buy -137pts (+51pts)
This was the Non-Farm Payroll day and the move reversed in the single candle, taking us out. This is the single-most deadly economic announcement you will face when working the H1 and longer charts. You really need to be aware of the time and keep your wits about you if you happen to be in a trade when the NFP is announced.
8th June 16.00 – 9th June 04.00 Buy +59pts (+147pts)
Using the 20-Period EMA to help manage your exit-points/profit-taking, you would have been able to stay in this trade, ending on 10th June 20.00 for +300pts (+516pts).
10th June 19.00 – 11th June 03.00 Sell -67pts (+72pts)
11th June 17.00 – 12th June 02.00 Buy +1pt (+70pts)
12th June 11.00 – 12th June 17.00 Sell -62pts (+105pts)
15th June 17.00 – 16th June 08.00 Sell -44pts (+36pts)
Again, using an EMA-20, gives you the last two trades together, for a completely different result, with a profit of +95pts (+225pts), closing at 16th June 10.00…
17th June 10.00 – 17th June 19.00 Sell -6pts (+127pts)
18th June 09.00 – 18th June 10.00 Buy -102pts (+26pts)
This was again caused by one huge candle driven by the Pro-Sellers and featuring a total range of +187pts…
23rd June 14.00 – 24th June 00.00 Buy +81pts (+124pts)
24th June 18.00 – 25th June 02.00 Sell -14pts (+63pts)
We were caught by a Dead-Cat-Bounce here and you could have calmed your nerves by seeing the price still nowhere near the 20-Period EMA, keeping you in. If you’d kept the faith, you’d have closed out on 25th June 22.00 for +79pts (+199pts).
EURUSD
H1 chart
1st June 10.00 – 1st June 13.00 Buy -46pts (+5pts)
1st June 19.00 – 1st June 21.00 Buy -71pts (+17pts)
2nd June 12.00 – 3rd June 02.00 Buy +85pts (+132pts)
3rd June 10.00 – 4th June 02.00 Sell +45pts (+118pts)
4th June 08.00 – 4th June 12.00 Buy -12pts (+59pts)
4th June 13.00 – 4th June 16.00 Sell -90pts (+61pts)
5th June 15.00 – 8th June 03.00 Sell +35pts (+55pts)
This was the NFP day and for the EURUSD we only caught the fag-end of the move, having missed out on 99% of the trade, a +295pts move before we even got in.
Using the EMA-20, you’d have closed on the 9th June 02.00 for +87pts (+210pts).
9th June 12.00 – 9th June 13.00 Sell -92pts (+11pts)
10th June 15.00 – 11th June 02.00 Sell +25pts (+114pts)
11th June 16.00 – 12th June 06.00 Buy -17pts (+90pts)
12th June 11.00 – 16th June 04.00 Sell +205pts (+278pts)
17th June 13.00 – 17th June 14.00 Sell -67pts (+5pts)
I had the scalp line set at a nominal 5pts and as in this situation, if your initial move barely makes the scalp-line, you know you ain’t goin’ knowhere! Don’t waste time, get the hell outta’ Dodge!
18th June 10.00 – 18th June 16.00 Sell -79pts (+13pts)
23rd June 09.00 – 24th June 11.00 Buy +175pts (+251pts)
24th June 13.00 – 25th June 02.00 Sell +84pts (+159pts)
25th June 13.00 – 25th June 19.00 Sell -65pts (+33pts)
25th June 19.00 – 26th June 10.00 Buy +39pts (+30pts)
The Trailing-Stop was caught by one tail on the evening sideways move. Using the EMA-20, we would still have been in at the Friday Close. We were sitting on +84pts (+134pts). This was the end of the test and our free data feed, so I could not check what happened at the next week’s open, however using my own charts and an EMA-20, you would have been better closing out your trade at week’s end, as otherwise, you would have ended up with +40pts (+134pts).
So there you go.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my system review round-up. See you all then…
GC.
