Well I Declare, 13th to 18th November 2012

There are many positives to take into this week, not least of which is an extra day of coverage as understandably, I wanted to include the third and final day of the ‘Open meeting’ at Cheltenham.

That said let’s start the other way around by giving you some information about the first week statistics after the end of the flat (turf) in 2011.

Part of the reason for doing so is the surprising stat that favourites fared quite well in the report which takes in the full week, up to an including next Monday from a corresponding fixture perspective.

 

First week of corresponding results from the all-weather season from 2011.

Number of favourites: 69
Winners: 23 (33.3%)
Placed 24 (68.1% placed overall)
Unplaced: 22
Ten Odds on favourites: 7 winners & 3 places

 

Trainers of at least two winners during the week:

6–Saeed Bin Suroor (2/1 & five successful favourites)
3–Tom Dascombe (20/1-11/2-5/1)
2–Clive Cox (6/1 & 11/4*)
2–John Gosden (9/2 & 6/4*)
2–Andrew Balding (4/1 & 7/2)
2–Richard Hannon (10/1 & 4/5*)
2–Ron Harris (12/1 & 11/1)
2–John Jenkins (11/2 & 3/1*)
2–Alan McCabe (11/1 & 17/2)
2–Kevin Ryan (25/1 & 5/1)

 

Beaten favourites:

4–John Gosden
3–Richard Fahey & Keith Dalgleish
2 each for Mahmood Al Zarooni–Richard Hannon–Peter Hiatt–Marco Botti–Ian Williams–David Evans

 

Stat and facts from last year’s Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham:

Only nine trainers saddled winners during the three-day meeting, whilst just six of the nineteen favourites won via eighteen races. Twelve of the nineteen market leaders finished in the frame from a toteplacepot perspective.

 

Winning trainers:

6–Paul Nicholls (12/1-6/1-4/1-9/4*-6/4*-5/6*)
4–David Pipe (9/1-8/1-13/2-6/4*)
2–Willie Mullins: (15/2 & 9/2)
One each for Rebecca Cutis (16/1)–Jonjo O’Neill (9/1)–Nicky Henderson (13/2)–Nick Williams (2/1)–Mrs J. Harrington (11/8*)–Philip Hobbs (4/5*)

 

Beaten favourites saddled by:

5–Paul Nicholls (11/10–11/4-3/1-3/1-5/1**)
2–Philip Hobbs (7/2 & 9/2)
One each for Charlie Longsdon (10/3)–Enda Bolger (10/11)–Nicky Henderson (5/1**)–John Ferguson (7/2)–Robin Dickin (5/4)–Alan King (11/8)

 

Day by details at Cheltenham last year:

Friday: Two of the six favourites obliged whilst four of the seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  All six winners were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.  David Pipe stole the honours with a 186/1 treble.  Toteplacepot dividend: £25.90.

Saturday: Only one of the six favourites prevailed whilst three of the six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  All six winners were sent off at 9/1 or less.  Paul Nicholls landed an 86/1 treble.  Toteplacepot dividend: £1,295.00.

Sunday: Three of the six favourites won whilst five of the six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  All six winners were sent off at 16/1 or less.  Paul Nicholls secured a 77/1 treble.  Toteplacepot dividend: £19.70.

 

Records for the Paddy Power meeting over the last five years:

Number of successful favourites during the last five years:

Friday: 9/30
Saturday: 7/30
Sunday: 7/29 (one abandoned race)

Total: 23/89 (25.8%)

 

Average toteplacepot dividends for the last five years:

Friday: £262.74
Saturday: £ 468.32
Sunday: £147.48

Average over the three days: £292.84

 

Paddy Power Gold Cup stats during the last five years:

Popular trainer’s records:

Nigel Twiston-Davies: 2 winners–two placed horses–six unplaced (no entry this year)
Ferdy Murphy: 1-1-3
Eddie O’Grady: 1-0-1 (no entry this time around)
David Pipe: 1-0-6
Nicky Henderson: 0-4-5
Alan King: 0-2-4
Paul Nicholls: 0-2-10
Philip Hobbs: 0-1-2

Record of favourites:

One winner–one placed–three unplaced

 

Record of first three in the betting:

Four winners–four placed–eight unplaced (two joint third favourites in 2007)

 

Vintage stats:

5YO: No winners–2 placed–six unplaced
6YO: 0-3-12
7YO: 4-3-17
8YO: 1-2-19
9YO: 0-5-9
Older horses: 0-0-9

Day by day details this week:

TUESDAY 13/11:

Lingfield (NH):

1.00: Five-year-olds have won all six renewals to date, whilst five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  Just one (8/13) market leader has prevailed from a win perspective however.

1.30: Six-year-olds have secured four of the six contests thus far.  Four of the eight favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, though last year‘s successful 15/8 market leader was the first to land the spoils.

2.00: Five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, albeit four-year-old‘s come to the party on a hat trick this time around. Four favourites have prevailed via eight renewals, with seven gold medallists having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.

2.30: Only one of the four favourites has claimed a toteplacepot position to date (no winners).

3.00: Six, seven and eight-year-olds have equally shared the six contests thus far, whilst five gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 11-4.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

3.30: Four of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-4.  Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the money (three winners) via six contests.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 34% ratio standout from the crowd, whilst Dance For Livvy (3.10) is Robin Dickin’s only runner on the card, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 22% via six winners.  

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Chris Grant saddles two runners on the card having saddled a nice winner at the weekend.  Chris boasts an LSP figure of thirty-one points at the northern venue.

 

WEDNESDAY 14/11:

Bangor:

Class 3 Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: Horses carrying 11-8 or more have won four of the six renewals to date, whilst three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include two winners.

Class 4 seventeen furlong novice hurdle event due to be contested at 3.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals thus far whilst seven of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Bumper finale scheduled for 4.10: Fourteen of forty favourites have won bumper races at Bangor during the last five years.

 

Exeter:

Class 4 twenty-one furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Favourites have secured two gold, one silver medal and one bronze medal via five contests.  Paul Nicholls trained the first two winners of this event (Paul held two options at the time of writing), whilst five-year-olds come into the contest on a five timer.

Seventeen furlong Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 3.10: Five and six-year-olds have secured five of the six renewals to date, the young brigade leading 3-2 to date.  Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the most recent renewals when the trainer was represented.  Paul held two options at the time of writing.

Class 5 nineteen furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.40: Only three of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) via eight renewals to date.  The last six winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more.

Mares novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.10: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year‘s even money market leaders secured the silver medal.  Six-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer.

 

Kempton:

General stats: 41% of the 413 non handicap favourites have won at the Sunbury venue during the last five years.

 

Southwell:

General stats: James Tate had just one runner entered at the time of writing which was Dubawi Sound in the 2.50 event, the trainer boasting a 50% record at South well (6/12) thus far.

 

THURSDAY 15/11:

Kempton:

General stats: Michael (JM) Murphy has been one of the finds of the year relating to jockeys and his 26% strike rate here at Kempton is backed up by an LSP reading of fourteen points.

 

Ludlow:

Annual handicap chase over three miles scheduled for 2.00: During the last eleven years, nine of the ten winners were aged eight or more. Five favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1.

 

Southwell:

General stats: With as many as seven potential runners over the two-day meeting, David Nicholls in obviously intent on improving his staggering 168 points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years.

 

Taunton:

Class 3 Novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Paul Nicholls has saddled two of the last three winners in which he was represented in the race during the last four years and the Ditcheat based maestro only had Suerte Al Salto engaged at the time of writing.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.10: Four and five-year-olds have won the last eight renewals with the ‘juniors’ leading 5-3 during the period.  Only two favourites have obliged via eight renewals since the turn of the Millennium.  That said, the last eight winners have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less.

 

FRIDAY 16/11:

Cheltenham:

Six-year-olds have won the last six renewals of the Steel Plate & Sections Novice chase which is scheduled to open the three-day fixture at 1.15.  ‘Team Pipe’ has secured four victories during the last decade, whilst the same number of market leaders has prevailed during the study period.

Handicap chase over two miles scheduled for 1.50: Nicky Henderson held two options for this race earlier in the week, the trainer coming into the contest on a four timer.

Grade 2 two-mile novice hurdle scheduled for 2.55: Four and five-year-olds have secured ten of the last eleven renewals (five-year-olds lead 6-4 during the period).  Three favourites have prevailed during the last decade with market leaders coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.

Cross country event scheduled for 3.00: Enda Bolger has saddled five of the last eight winners of this unique event.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 3.30: Nicky Henderson had saddled three consecutive winners of this contest directly before securing silver and bronze medals in last year’s renewal.  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests, whilst favourites have obliged in three of the last six renewals.

Amateur riders event scheduled for 4.05: The last ten winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst just one favourite has scored via the last nine contests.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Daniel Kubler had two entries on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 60% at Lingfield via three winners. The trio of successful gold medallists has helped to produce a level stake profit of ten points thus far.

 

Newcastle:

Two mile novice hurdle scheduled for 12.20: Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.25: Five of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners).

Class four handicap chase event scheduled for 2.00: Favourites come into the contest on a four timer, market leaders having won five of the last seven renewals.  The biggest priced winner via ten renewals since 2000 was returned at odds of 15/2.   Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.55: Nicky Richards saddled the first two (of six) winners of this event, whilst five-year-olds come to this year’s party on a five timer.  The last five favourites have finished out of the frame since a 5/2 winning favourite was recorded back in 2007.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Hoad only has two entries for the entire week, one of which is Mr Hendrix who is due to contest the scheduled 4.45 event.  Mark has saddled three of his ten runners to winning effect at Wolverhampton, statistics which have produced over fourteen points of level stake profits.

 

SATURDAY 17/11:

Cheltenham:

Triumph Hurdle Trial scheduled for 12.45: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 10/1 or less during which time, five favourites have obliged.  Paul Nicholls comes into the contest on a hat trick with his twelve length soft ground winner Far West as his only possible representative

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 1.20: What A Warrior was the only Nigel Twiston-Davies raider involved at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled three of the last nine winners.  Favourites have secured five of the last nine renewals.

Twenty nine furlong Grade 3 handicap chase contest due to be contested at 1.55 honouring the name of Henrietta Knight: Seven winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 10-10.

Paddy Power Gold Cup scheduled for 2.35: Eight of the last nine winners carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst four favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years.

Listed handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.05: The last eleven winners all carried weights of 11-2 or less.

Two mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-old’s come to the gig on a four timer, whilst four contests have slipped by since a successful favourite was registered following five consecutive victories for market leaders between 2003 and 2007.

 

Lingfield:

Listed ‘Churchill Stakes’ scheduled for 2.15: Clive Brittain has saddled two of the last four winners. Both of those gold medallists represented the three-year-old vintage and Clive’s only option earlier in the week was three-year-old Quixote.

Listed ‘Golden Rose’ scheduled for 2.50: Only one of the five favourites has prevailed thus far though to be fair, the biggest priced winner to date was returned at just 8/1.  Two of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Charlie Mann’s ratio at Uttoxeter stands at 10/37, backed up by an equally impressive LSP figure of eight points.  Favourite stats regarding favourites at the venue are extremely positive in the non handicap sector with 46% of market leaders of hurdle races having obliged along the 47% steeplechase ratio during the last five years.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: JJ Lambe held three options for Wetherby on Saturday at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a 40% strike rate at the venue via four winners thus far.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Trainer Gerard Butler saddled a winner last week via the few number of runners he saddled.  Gerard’s strike rate of 24% at Wolverhampton is well worth reporting, especially when the ratio is backed up by forty-eight points of level stake profits. 

 

SUNDAY 18/11:

Cheltenham:

Grade 2 novice chase scheduled for 1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last ten winners, statistics which include the last four winners of the race.

Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood Hurdle) scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won six times during the last eleven, whilst Philip Hobbs has saddled three of the last ten winners.  Course and distance winner Snap Tie was Philip’s only entry at the five-day stage.

Intermediate Hurdle scheduled for 2.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals whilst six contests had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before last year’s 9/4 market leader obliged.

Twenty one furlong hurdle event scheduled for 3.25: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost again here, having won the last six renewals.

Paul Nicholls (potentially saddles Fascino Rustico this time around) was thwarted by a Rebecca Curtis winner last year when coming into the contest on a hat trick.  It’s worth noting the Rebecca held three options for the race earlier in the week.

 

Fontwell:

Salmon Spray Challenge Trophy scheduled for 1.30: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-0 or more.  Five of the last six market leaders have prevailed.

‘Southern National’ scheduled for 2.05: Seven of the eight contests have been won by horses returned at odds of 8/2 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders of one description or another.

Well I Declare, 13th to 18th November 2012, 10.0 out of 10 based on 1 rating