Well I Declare: 15th to 19th January 2013

The weather looks set to wreak havoc at the time of writing, though the meetings at the weekend might be safe as there appears to be potential improvement later in the week.

The majority of the information you read here will at least be relevant to future meetings at the various venues whereby all is not lost, whatever the decision of the Clerk of the Course at three meetings which already have inspections planned.

NH DETAILS FOR 2013 (up to and including Monday 14th January): 

Number of races: 176

Favourite stats: 66 (37.5% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 26/38 (68.4%)

Leading trainers of NH winners in 2013:  

10–Venetia Williams

8–D. McCain

7–N. Henderson

6–P. Nicholls

6–D. Pipe

5–T. George

5–K. Reveley

5–Lucinda Russell

4–J. Ferguson

4–A King

4–Gary Moore

4–C. Tizzard

 

Trainers of most beaten favourites during the period:  

11–D. McCain

7–J.J. O’Neill

6–P. Hobbs

5–P. Nicholls

5–D. Pipe

4–A. King

4–Emma Lavelle

4–C. Longsdon

4–J. Scott

4–Venetia Williams

 

A/W leading ratios since the end of the turf season (at least two winners):

50%–David Barron (2/4)

50%–Don Cantillon (2/4)

50%–James Eustace (2/4)

43%–Roger Charlton (3/7)

43%–Saeed Bin Suroor (3/7)

40%–Paul Burgoyne (2/5)

39%–Sir Mark Prescott (6/16)

38%–Paul Cole (3/8)

36%–Ed Dunlop (8/22)

35%–Jeremy Noseda (6/17)

33%–David O’Meara (14/42)

33%–Charlie Hills (6/18)

33%–Robin Bastiman (2/6)

33%–James Bethell (2/6)

33%–Alan King (2/6)

33%–Phil Kirby (2/6)

31%–Patrick Chamings (4/13)

30%–Jim Boyle (7/23)

30%–Robert Mills (7/23)

30%–George Margarson (6/20)

30%–James Unett (6/20)

 

Selected trainers yet to saddle a winner since the end of the turf season:

0/36–Roger Ingram

0/34–Scott Dixon

0/26–Brian Baugh

0/23–Brendan Powell

0/20–Mick Channon

0/19–Paddy Butler

0/19–Richard Ford

0/18–Peter Grayson

0/18–Ann Stokell

0/17–John Weymes

0/16–Zoe Davison

0/15–Martin Bosley

0/15–Michael Madgwick

0/15–Bryn Palling

0/15–Richard Rowe

 

Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 15/01:

Ffos Las:

Recent statistics from the last four NH Ffos Las cards:

Number of races: 28

Number of winning favourites: 10 (35.7% of the 28 events):

(24/28 winners were returned at 15/2 or less)

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

5–Rebecca Curtis (4/1-3/1-6/4*-5/4*-4/7*)

3–Evan Williams (10/3-11/4**-11/10*)

3–Tim Vaughan (9/2-3/1-4/6*)

2–Jonjo O’Neill (15/2 & 13/2)

2–David Pipe (8/11* & 1/5*)

2–David Rees (25/1 & 5/2)

2–Venetia Williams (14/1 & 9/1)

(19/28 winners hailed from just seven stables)

 

Lingfield:

LINGFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Lingfield: 6

Favourite stats: 0 (includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/3

 

Trainers of winners at Lingfield in 2013:

1–M. Channon (13/8)

1–P. Hobbs (9/4)

1–A.J. Martin (5/1)

1–A. Middleton (5/1)

1–P. Webber (25/1)

1–R. York (7/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–D. Arbuthnot (7/4)

1–Caroline Bailey (4/5)

1–G. Baker (4/9)

1–N. Henderson (13/8)

1–C. Mann (2/5)

1–J.J. O’Neill (2/1)

 

Wolverhampton:

Recent statistics from the last three Wolverhampton cards:

Number of races: 22

Number of winning favourites: 8 (36.4% % of the 22 Events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

2–A. McCabe (10/3* twice)

2–David Simcock (4/1 & 5/2)

2–Jason Tate (14/1 & 11/8*)

 

Number of winners returned at 9/1 or less: 19/22

Number of winners returned at 10/1 or more: 3/22

 

WEDNESDAY 16/01:

Newbury:

Recent statistics from the last five Newbury cards:

Number of races: 35

Number of winning favourites: 15 (42.8% of the 35 events):

(33/35 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less–others at 12/1 & 33/1)

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

3–Nicky Henderson (5/1-7/2-4/1*)

3–Paul Nicholls (4/1*-2/1*-1/12*)

2–Rebecca Curtis (4/1 & 7/4*)

2–Harry Fry (7/2 & 9/4)

2–Tom George (7/2 & 5/2*)

2–Philip Hobbs (33/1 & 4/5*)

2–Alan King (5/1 & 7/2)

2–Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1 & 4/1)

2–Tim Vaughan (12/1 & 4/6*)

2–Venetia Williams (8/1 & 7/2)

 

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 12.50: Two of the eight renewals to date have been won by market leaders, the biggest priced winner to date being last year‘s 40/1 gold medallist.

Class 4 seventeen furlong novice chase event scheduled for 1.20: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last four winners of this contest.

Nineteen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last seven winners of this contest (alongside the great record of the market leaders in this event), with Nicky conspicuous by his absence here two years ago.  Nicky held five options at the penultimate entry stage on this occasion.

(Harwell Trophy) Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.25: Five of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst six of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).  Eight-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests and last year’s 6/1 winner was the only vintage representative.

 

Newcastle:

NEWCASTLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Newcastle: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

1–J. Ewart (6/4*)

1–T. Gretton (9/2)

1–K. Reveley (5/2)

1–N. Richards (6/4*)

1–Lucinda Russell (3/1)

1–J. Wade (6/5*)

1–Sharon Watt (Evs*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–J. Norton (11/4)

1–D. O’Meara (13/8)

1–M. Todhunter (9/4)

 

Kempton:

Recent statistics from the last three Kempton A/W cards:

Number of races: 21

Number of winning favourites: 5 (23.8% of the 21 events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

2–Tony Carroll (16/1 & 6/1)

2–S. Dow (7/4* & 3/1)

2–David Evans (9/4 & 3/1)

2–P. McEntee (10/1 & 6/1)

 

Number of winners returned at 9/1 or less: 18/21

Number of winners returned at 10/1 or more: 3/21

 

Lingfield:

Recent statistics from the last three Lingfield cards:

Number of races: 22

Number of winning favourites: 8 (36.4% of the 22 Events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

2–Stuart Williams (4/1 & 4/11*)

2–R. Mills (7/1 & Evens*)

2–David Ellsworth (7/4* & 4/6*)

 

Number of winners returned at 9/1 or less: 21

Number of winners returned at 10/1 or more: 1 (25/1 Brian Ellison trained winner)

 

THURSDAY 17/01:

Ludlow:

Two mile five furlong maiden hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Six-year-olds have won six of the seven renewals, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  Just one (4/5) favourite has scored via seven contests.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Nicky Henderson will be hoping that the meeting survives today’s inspection having five potential runners at the track where the trainer boasts a 41% record during the last five years. Nicky backs up the strike rate with a current LSP reading of thirteen points at Market Rasen during the study period. 

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wincanton: 6

Favourite stats: 2 (33.3%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

1–R. Buckler (10/3)

1–T. George (6/1)

1–P. Nicholls (6/1)

1–D. Pipe (5/6*)

1–A. Turnell (2/1)

1–R. Woollacott (11/4*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–P. Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)

1–D. Pipe (7/2)

1–C. Tizzard (5/2**)

1–T. Vaughan (5/2**)

 

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.50: Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 11-7 or less, whilst three favourites have prevailed during the period. 30 horses have been returned at odds of 18/1 or more without producing a winner, with just four representatives finishing the in the frame.

NH novice hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Extreme results either way have been the order of the day of late, with five market leaders having won via the last nine renewals.  A 5/2 second favourite also scored accompanied by gold medallists at 66/1-33/1-14/1.  Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 10 winners with the trainer holding three options this time around.

 

Lingfield (Additional meeting because of the weather at the time of writing):

This is an NH Bumper meeting which has yet to be opened in terms of declarations.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Ten of the last fourteen horses saddled by David O’Meara had won at Wolverhampton at the time of writing!

 

FRIDAY 18/01 :

Musselburgh: 

MUSSELBURGH NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Musselburgh: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Musselburgh in 2013:

2–B. Ellison (7/1 & 5/1)

2–D Pipe (3/1* & 6/4*)

2–Venetia Williams (7/2 & 9/4*)

1–N. Alexander (7/1)

1–J Ferguson (13/2)

1–R. Ford (13/2)

1–P. Kirby (13/2)

1–D. McCain (4/6*)

1–Sandy Thomson (6/1)

1–T. Vaughan (4/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–D. McCain (5/2-4/9-11/10)

1–J. Ewart (7/4)

1–R. Fahey (11/4)

1–P. Niven (4/1)

1–D. Pipe (2/1)

1–N. Richards (7/2)

1–M. Smith (2/1)

 

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Chepstow: 14

Favourite stats: 6 (42.9%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

1–Rebecca Curtis (7/2)

1–V. Dartnell (9/2)

1–J. Ferguson (10/3)

1–M. Gillard (9/4*)

1–M. Keighley (7/2)

1–N. Mulholland (6/4*)

1–S. Mullins (28/1)

1–P. Nicholls (10/11*)

1–D. Pipe (5/1**)

1–J. Scott (6/4**)

1–M. Scudamore (10/1)

1–M. Sheppard (6/4*)

1–C. Tizzard (9/2)

1–Venetia Williams (7/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–P. Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4)

2–Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4)

1–P. Hobbs (6/4**)

1–J.J. O’Neill (5/1**)

1–F. O’Brien (3/1**)

1–D. Pipe (5/2)

1–T. Vaughan (3/1**)

1–Venetia Williams (10/11*)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Punters have (generally) got off to a bad start at the last three Lingfield meetings as no favourites have won in the opening two events on the respective cards, winners scoring at odds of 16/1-10/1-6/1-11/2-9/2-3/1.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Charlie Hills has won with two of the last five runners he has saddled and his ratio at Wolverhampton stands at 9/42 which equates to a 21% strike rate, the same number of level stake profits that Charlie has acquired during the period.

 

SATURDAY 19/01: 

Ascot:

Recent statistics from the last five NH Ascot cards:

Number of races: 32

Number of winning favourites: 15 (46.9% of the 32 events):

(29/32 winners were returned at 9/1 or less)

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

9–Nicky Henderson (Seven successful favourites + winners at 9/1 & 11/4)

3–Philip Hobbs (11/2-7/1-3/1*)

3–Paul Nicholls (3/1*-5/4**-Evs*)

3–Oliver Sherwood (7/2-13/8*-4/9*)

2–Kim Bailey (16/1 & 8/1)

2–Fergal O’Brien (6/1 & 9/4**)

(22/32 winners hailed from just six stables)

 

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.15: Favourites of one description or another have won the last six contests.

Grade 2 Limited Handicap Hurdle scheduled for 2.25: David Pipe has secured three of the last five contests, whilst just one favourite has prevailed via seven contests to date.  David held three options at the time of writing including Home Run who has won his last five races (all on soft/heavy ground).

Class 2 handicap chase over two miles five furlongs scheduled for 3.00: Six renewals have slipped by since the only favourite obliged via the last nine contests.  Seven of the relevant contests were secured by horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-13.  Tatenen is among the five-day declarations, with Richard Rowe’s nine-year-old attempting to win the race for the third successive year.

‘Victor Chandler’ scheduled for 3.35: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last four winners all of which were returned as favourites.  Sanctuaire was Paul’s only potential runner at the five-day stage, potentially taking on Nicky Henderson’s superstar Sprinter Sacre who is rumoured to be better than Moscow Flyer according to Barry Geraghty!

 

Haydock:

Recent statistics from the last three NH Haydock cards:

Number of races: 20

Number of winning favourites: 6 (30.0% of the 20 events):

(All twenty winners were returned at 14/1 or less)

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

4–Donald McCain (5/1-3/1*-11/4-85/40)

3–Tom George (12/1-5/2-2/1*)

2–Alan King (4/1* & 1/2*)

(9/20 winners hailed from just three stables)

 

Class 1 two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 12.55: Market leaders have secured four of the five contests, with the other winner having scored at 11/4.

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.30: All eight winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include four successful favourites.  Donald McCain comes into the race with two options having saddled the last two winners of the contest.

Champion Hurdle trial scheduled for 2.40: Five and six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals between them, with the six-year-olds leading 3-2 during the period.

Peter Marsh Chase scheduled for 3.15: Just one favourite has prevailed via the last nine renewals.

Two and a half mile ‘Fixed Brush’ novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.50: Favourites have won five of the last seven renewals.

 

Taunton:

TAUNTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Taunton: 7

Favourite stats: 7 (100.0%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Taunton in 2013:

3–Venetia Williams (6/4*-5/4*-4/6*)

2–P. Nicholls: (7/4* & 5/6*)

1–C. Down (3/1*)

1–P. Webber (4/9*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

None!

 

Lingfield:

General stats: The last five runners saddled by John Gosden at the time of writing had finished second, the trainer boasting a 24% strike rate here at Lingfield during the last five years.  John has secured thirty four points of level stake profits in the process.  John’s luck should change during the course of the week.

 

Kempton (Additional meeting because of the weather):

No card details at the time of writing.

Well I Declare: 15th to 19th January 2013, 9.0 out of 10 based on 6 ratings