Well I Declare: 29th Jan to 3rd Feb 2013

The outlook remains grim though there is a little more confidence of racing returning to normal towards the end of the week, providing the heavy showers have not left too many lakes on the courses the length and the breadth of the land.

I was requested to offer thoughts on the draw at the three (current) all-weather racecourses whereby I have recorded results since Christmas Day at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton, pertaining to five, six and seven furlong races in which at least eight runners contested the relevant events.

Unfortunately only two races over the minimum trip at Kempton have been staged with the relevant requirements in place whereby I went back a little further in time to gain more data, right back to 14^th November to retrieve just five results!  Relevant starting prices are in brackets following the successful stall positions.

I have also included the 2013 NH figures for Musselburgh on Sunday (alongside Lingfield’s general statistics) as the venue has more chance of staging its meeting than most.  Have a great week.

KEMPTON DRAW DETAILS:

Five furlongs:

2-7-3 (10/1-33/1-5/1–10 ran)

6-3-2 (7/4*-16/1-4/1–8 ran)

1-6-2 (25/1-4/1-12/1–10 ran)

9-5-6 (10/1-6/1-11/2**–12 ran)

10-3-2 (25/1-11/8*-14/1–12 ran)

Six furlongs:

8-2-7 (8/1-3/1*-4/1–11 ran)

8-1-6 (4/7*-9/2-33/1–8 ran)

6-9-3 (3/1-7/1-16/1–9 ran)

5-9-2 (6/1-12/1-5/2*–9 ran)

1-3-4 (10/11*-8/1-14/1–8 ran)

9-4-2 (7/2-11/2-10/1–8 ran)

4-8-3 (10/1-9/2-7/2–8 ran)

9-1-8 (7/2-5/2*-5/1–10 ran)

Seven furlongs:

3-6-1 (5/1-Evs*-10/1–11 ran)

6-4-8 (16/1-33/1-7/1–14 ran)

4-7-1 (7/2*-8/1-6/1–11 ran)

1-3-9 (5/1-12/1-5/1–10 ran)

4-8-2 (7/4*-7/2-20/1–9 ran)

13-2-3 (5/1-25/1-6/1–11 ran)

6-9-7 (9/4***-9/4***-10/1–9 ran)

 

LINGFIELD DRAW DETAILS:

Five furlongs:

3-9-6 (4/1**-12/1-4/1**–10 ran)

9-10-1 (8/1-4/1-7/2*–9 ran)

4-3-1 (3/1-33/1-7/1–8 ran)

1-8-4 (9/4*-12/1-16/1–8 ran)

5-6-3 (Evs*-10/1-12/1–8 ran)

8-5-4 (2/1*-25/1-10/1–8 ran)

10-7-2 (7/2-66/1-5/1–8 ran)

2-7-4 (6/4*-14/1-9/2–9 ran)

2-3-10 (3/1-6/1-10/1–8 ran)

 

Six furlongs:

3-4-10 (4/5*-8/1-8/1–10 ran)

4-7-3 (8/1-6/1-7/1–9 ran)

7-6-8 (9/2-6/1-5/1–9 ran)

7-6-2 (5/1-4/1**-8/1–11 ran)

3-11-6 (10/1-7/1-10/1–11 ran)

7-5-2 (5/2**-5/2**-12/1–9 ran)

3-8-6 (5/1-4/6*-6/1–9 ran)

9-2-4 (7/2-8/1-11/4*–10 ran)

4-3-9 (2/1-7/4*-6/1–9 ran)

4-9-2 (33/1-4/1-7/2*–12 ran)

8-4-5 (8/1-11/4*-8/1–11 ran)

 

Seven furlongs:

7-13-10 (4/7*-16/1-6/1–11 ran)

3-9-13 (5/4*-9/2-33/1–14 ran)

6-2-7 (6/4*-11/4-14/1–11 ran)

3-13-11 (10/1-11/4*-9/2–12 ran)

6-8-5 (4/1-7/4*-6/1–9 ran)

8-1-7 (5/2-8/1-25/1–8 ran)

3-1-2 (4/6*-33/1-8/1–10 ran)

1-5-8 (7/2**7/2**-9/2–8 ran)

8-5-4 (9/2-9/4*-8/1–9 ran)

3-8-6 (5/1-9/2-6/4*–9 ran)

8-10-9 (8/1-8/1-5/1–9 ran)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON DRAW DETAILS:

Five furlongs:

2-3-11 (6/1-7/2*-20/1–12 ran)

8-12-11 (9/2-9/4*-14/1–11 ran)

3-5-2 (9/1-14/1-6/5*–8 ran)

8-9-4 (9/2-15/2-16/1–9 ran)

3-1-9 (6/1-14/1-9/4–9 ran)

1-9-6 (2/1*-8/1-9/2–10 ran)

 

Six furlongs:

2-9-6 (9/4*-3/1-6/1–11 ran)

13-8-6 (28/1-8/13*-16/1–10 ran)

1-4-2 (20/1-9/2-16/1–8 ran)

8-9-2 (9/1-20/1-10/1–11 ran)

3-7-2 (13/8*-11/4-17/2–8 ran)

7-5-2 (4/1*-5/1-14/1–11 ran)

1-11-4 (16/1-5/2**-16/1–12 ran)

7-6-11 (5/2*-6/1-12/1–11 ran)

6-7-5 (3/1*-4/1-7/2–10 ran)

5-3-4 (9/2-5/4*-17/2–10 ran)

2-3-7 (4/1-7/2*-4/1–9 ran)

10-9-3/8 (dead heat third–11/2-22/1-4/1 & 11/1–10 ran)

11-2-10 (33/1-9/4*-28/1–11 ran)

5-2-4 (14/1-10/1-8/1–9 ran)

4-3-10 (7/1-9/4*-20/1–12 ran)

1-11-5/1 (11/8*-2/1-10/1–12 ran)

2-11-9 (3/1**-3/1**-14/1–11 ran)

9-6-8 (5/1-4/1**-4/1**–12 ran)

1-4-9 (14/1-3/1*-11/2–10 ran)

7-4-1 (10/3-9/1-15/8*–8 ran)

2-4-5 (9/2-8/1-15/8*–9 ran)

 

Seven furlongs:

4-5-1 (5/2*-16/1-11/2–11 ran)

10-9-12 (4/1-10/1-17/2–11 ran)

10-9-4 (Evs*-14/1-2/1–10 ran)

8-5-4 (16/1-8/1-20/1–11 ran)

7-6-9 (7/2**-4/1-7/2**–8 ran)

11-4-10 (11/1-20/1-8/1–11 ran)

5-7-3 (7/4*-5/1-9/1–8 ran)

5-4-2 (13/8*-11/2-12/1–10 ran)

8-3-7 (11/1-4/7*-50/1–11 ran)

1-5-4 (9/1-14/1-4/1–9 ran)

2-10-6 (3/1-9/2-33/1–9 ran)

3-8-5 (10/3*-8/1-4/1–10 ran)

6-4-10 (5/1-7/1-6/4*–9 ran)

4-2-5 (7/2-9/2-7/2–10 ran)

8-5-3 (6/1-4/7*-6/1–9 ran)

7-5-4 (3/1*-10/1-11/1–12 ran)

10-6-2 (33/1-11/2-20/1–11 ran)

2-8-4 (4/1-10/1-7/1–9 ran)

5-10-9 (8/1-5/1-10/1–8 ran)

6-5-8 (5/2*-11/4-14/1–10 ran)

7-2-6 (11/1-13/8*-12/1–9 ran)

 

2013 3YO Handicap statistics:

Record of favourites in 3YO handicap races in 2013: 17/41 (41.5%)

Odds On market leaders: 8/15 (53.3%)

Statistics relevant up to and including Tuesday 29th January (figures include one dead heat scenario).

 

Leading trainers in 3YO handicap races in 2013 (two or more winners):

4–Marco Botti (11/4**-9/2-1/2*-7/4)

4–David Evans (9/2-1/3*-4/1-7/4*)

3–Ralph Beckett (3/1-2/11*-5/1)

3–Stan Moore (16/1-12/1-9/2)

3–David Simcock (4/1-4/6*-2/1)

2–Ed Dunlop (11/4* & 6/4*)

2–Richard Guest (5/4* & 9/2)

2–Michael Herrington (7/2 & 9/4*)

2–Robert Mills (2/1 & 7/1)

2–James Tate (4/9* & 9/4*)

 

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2013:

Wolverhampton–£8,672.40–Tuesday January 22

Sedgefield–£4,761.40–Friday January 11

Lingfield (NH)–£1,679.10–Tuesday January 15

Lingfield (A/W)–£1,600.00–Friday January 25

Kelso–£1,364.50–Sunday January 12

Kempton (A/W)–£1,129.40–Monday January 7

Lingfield (A/W)–£1,063.50–Wednesday January 2

Wolverhampton–£1,009.60–Friday January 11

 

NH DETAILS FOR 2013 (up to and including Monday 28th January): 

Number of races: 239

Favourite stats: 93 (38.9% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 33/55 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners in 2013 (minimum of six):  

13–Venetia Williams (13/48)

10–N. Henderson (10/44)

10–D. McCain (10/53)

9–P. Nicholls (9/45)

9–D. Pipe (9/47)

7–T. George (7/21)

7–A King (7/42)

7–Gary Moore (7/27)

7–J.J. O’Neill (7/61)

6–K. Reveley (6/15)

6–Lucinda Russell (6/40)

 

Trainers of winning favourites (two or more):

8–D. McCain (8/22)

8–N. Henderson (8/14)

8–Venetia Williams (8/12)

7–D. Pipe (7/15)

5–P. Nicholls (5/19)

4–A. King (4/9)

4–J.J. O’Neill (4/13)

3–T. George (3/5)

3–K. Reveley (3/4)

3–Lucinda Russell (3/3)

2–G. Baker (2/3)

2–J. Ferguson (2/4)

2–Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/3)

2–J. Wade (2/3)

2–P. Webber (2/2)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (without successful market leaders in 2013):  

5–C. Longsdon

4–Emma Lavelle

3–Rebecca Curtis

2–K. Bailey

2–A. Hales

2–M. Keighley

2–R. Lee

2–Miss A. Newton-Smith

2–Renee Robeson

2–O. Sherwood

2–M. Todhunter

2–A.C. Whillans

 

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Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 29/01:

Lingfield (New ‘Bumpers for jumpers’ card):

Results from the previous ‘BMJ’ meeting at Lingfield on 17^th January:

Number of races: 7

Number of winning favourites 3 (42.8% strike rate)

Ratio of successful odds on favourites: 1/2

 

Winning trainers:

George Baker (5/2*)

Alison Batchelor (66/1)

Ban Case (33/1)

Warren Greatrex (12/1)

Alan King (3/1**)

Hughie Morrison (8/11*)

Pat Phelan (7/2)

 

Beaten favourites saddled by:

Warren Greatrex (11/4)

Ben De Haan (9/4)

Nicky Henderson (4/7*)

Charlie Longsdon (6/5)

Suzy Smith (3/1**)

 

Wolverhampton:

Results from the last four flat meetings at Wolverhampton:

Number of races: 30

Successful favourites: 14 (46.7% strike rate)

Number of winners scoring at odds of 9/1 or less: 25

Number of winners at 10/1 or more: 5

 

Trainers of more than one winner:

2–Ruth Carr (2/1* & 7/4*)

2–Richard Guest (8/1 & 3/1*)

2–James Tate (9/4* & 4/9*)

 

WEDNESDAY 30/01:

Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3

 

Trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

2–J. Ferguson (6/5* & 8/11*)

1–Roger Curtis (16/1)

1–T. George (7/1)

1–P. Hobbs (10/11*)

1–Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4)

1–Venetia Williams (2/1*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–M. Blake (2/1)

1–A. King (10/11)

1–O. Sherwood (9/4)

 

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ludlow: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013:

1–J. Groucott (7/1)

1–N. Henderson (4/5*)

1–A. King (8/1)

1–N. Mulholland (25/1)

1–J.J. O’Neill (11/2)

1–T. Symonds (2/1*)

1–Venetia Williams (2/1*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–J. Ferguson (5/4)

1–P. Hobbs (7/4)

1–Evan Williams (10/3)

1–Venetia Williams (11/4)

 

Newcastle:

NEWCASTLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newcastle: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

1–J. Ewart (6/4*)

1–T. Gretton (9/2)

1–K. Reveley (5/2)

1–N. Richards (6/4*)

1–Lucinda Russell (3/1)

1–J. Wade (6/5*)

1–Sharon Watt (Evs*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–J. Norton (11/4)

1–D. O’Meara (13/8)

1–M. Todhunter (9/4)

 

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Six-year-olds have won four of the six renewals thus far whilst four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame via four renewals (two winners).  The biggest priced winner to date via five renewals was returned at just 7/2.

Three mile conditional jockeys event due to be contested at 2.20: Three of the first four favourites won this contest but the last eight market leaders have all been beaten, with recent gold medallists scoring at 25/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-17/2-11/2. That said, eight of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  Eight of the eleven winners to date have carried weights of 10-12 or more.

 

Kempton:

Results from the last four flat meetings at Kempton:

Number of races: 31

Successful favourites: 8 (25.8% strike rate)

Number of winners scoring at odds of 9/1 or less: 27

Number of winners at 10/1 or more: 24

 

Trainers of more than one winner:

5–Marco Botti (9/2-4/1-9/4*-7/4-7/4*)

 

THURSDAY 31/01:

Towcester:

Recent statistics from the last four Towcester meetings:

Number of races: 27 (All meetings in December: 1^st–4^th–20^th–26^th)

Number of winning favourites: 11 (40.7% of the 27 events):

(Three winners were returned in double figures at 18/1-16/1-10/1)

 

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

4–Donald McCain (11/4-9/4-9/4*-10/11*)

2–Robin Dickin (Evs* & 4/7*)

2–Martin Keighley (4/1 & 9/4*)

2–Alan King (7/2 & 10/11*)

2–Richard Lee (6/1 & 4/1)

2–David Pipe (11/2 & 3/1)

(24/27 winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less).

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wincanton: 12

Favourite stats: 7 (58.3%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

3–T. George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*)

1–R. Buckler (10/3)

1–H. Fry (3/1)

1–P. Nicholls (6/1)

1–J.J. O’Neill (1/5*)

1–D. Pipe (5/6*)

1–A. Turnell (2/1)

1–N. Twiston-Davies (11/4*)

1–Venetia Williams (1/2*)

1–R. Woollacott (11/4*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–P. Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)

1–P. Nicholls (5/2)

1–D. Pipe (7/2)

1–C. Tizzard (5/2**)

1–T. Vaughan (5/2**)

 

Lingfield:

Results from the last four flat meetings at Lingfield:

Number of races: 29

Successful favourites: 9 (31.0% strike rate)

Number of winners scoring at odds of 9/1 or less: 26

Number of winners at 10/1 or more: 3

 

Trainers of more than one winner:

2–Tony Carroll (9/2 & 6/4*)

2–David Evans (3/1 & 7/4*)

2–John Hills (7/2 & 7/4*)

2–Mark Johnston (6/1 & 7/2)

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Holy Angel is Tim Easterby’s only potential A/W runner this week and with Tim boasting twenty-seven points of level stake profit at Dunstall Park during the last five years, a small investment on the four-year-old Dark Angel gelding might prove worthwhile.

 

FRIDAY 01/02:

Catterick:

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Catterick: 13

Favourite stats: 5 (38.5% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6 (66.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

3–K. Reveley (Evs*–1/5*–2/5*)

1–C. Bealby (11/2)

1–B. Ellison (6/1)

1–M. Hammond (11/2)

1–M. Keighley (11/4)

1–D. McCain (2/1)

1–S. Shirley-Beavan (10/1)

1–Sue Smith (4/6*)

1–J. Spearing (5/1)

1–J. Wade (4/6*)

1–A.C. Whillans (15/2)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–D. McCain (3/1–13/8–5/4)

1–M. Hammond (9/2)

1–J.J. Quinn (1/6)

1–K. Reveley (6/4)

1–M. Todhunter (4/9)

1–Venetia Williams (9/2)

 

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Chepstow: 14

Favourite stats: 6 (42.9%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

1–Rebecca Curtis (7/2)

1–V. Dartnall (9/2)

1–J. Ferguson (10/3)

1–M. Gillard (9/4*)

1–M. Keighley (7/2)

1–N. Mulholland (6/4*)

1–S. Mullins (28/1)

1–P. Nicholls (10/11*)

1–D. Pipe (5/1**)

1–J. Scott (6/4**)

1–M. Scudamore (10/1)

1–M. Sheppard (6/4*)

1–C. Tizzard (9/2)

1–Venetia Williams (7/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–P. Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4)

2–Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4)

1–P. Hobbs (6/4**)

1–J.J. O’Neill (5/1**)

1–F. O’Brien (3/1**)

1–D. Pipe (5/2)

1–T. Vaughan (3/1**)

1–Venetia Williams (10/11*)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe’s only potential runner this week is Good Evans on this card, the trainer having won with his previous representative on Saturday.  Tom boasts a 23% strike rate at Lingfield which has produced forty-six points of level stake profits during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Some of the trainers with less winners than most at Wolverhampton are worth keeping on the right side at Wolverhampton.  David O’Meara’s fourteen winners (26% strike rate) have produced level stake profits, whilst the nine winners saddled by Tom Keddy, Ed Vaughan and George Margarson have produced an aggregate LSP reading of over one hundred points (47–22–32 respectively).

 

SATURDAY 02/02:

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 7

Favourite stats: 0 (0.00%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

2–Rebecca Curtis (11/2 & 4/1)

2–Evan Williams (7/1 & 7/2)

1–Kim Bailey (4/1)

1–J.J. O’Neill (9/2)

1–D. Pipe (3/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–Kim Bailey (5/6)

1–P. Bowen (11/4**)

1–Keiran Burke (7/2)

1–Rebecca Curtis (11/4)

1–Jackie Du Plessis (9/4)

1–Sue Gardner (7/2)

1–J.J. O’Neill (11/8)

1–M. Scudamore (11/4**)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sandown: 6

Favourite stats: 1 (16.7%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/2

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

1–N. Henderson (7/4)

1–C. Mann (12/1)

1–Gary Moore (20/1)

1–J. Scott (7/2)

1–Evan Williams (Evs*)

1–Venetia Williams (5/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–N. Henderson (5/2)

1–Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1–P. Nicholls (1/3)

1–J. Scott (10/3)

1–N. Williams (11/4)

 

Listed hurdle event scheduled for 1.15: Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last four winners of the opening event on the Sandown card.

Two mile handicap chase event scheduled for 1.50: We still await the first successful favourite following six renewals.  Five of the six gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of 11-2, whilst all six scorers were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less.

Two and three-quarter mile Grade 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last five winners of the contest.  Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 10-12 or less, stats which include the last seven gold medallists.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.40: The last eight winners have scored at odds ranging between 6/1 and 25/1.  Three 25/1 winners have been recorded during the period.

 

Wetherby:

WETHERBY NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wetherby: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Wetherby in 2013:

2–D. McCain (5/2 & 13/8*)

1–Tim Easterby (3/1)

1–Dr R. Newland (6/4*)

1–R. Phillips (9/4*)

1–Lynn Siddall (100/1)

1–Sue Smith (5/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–M. Keighley (2/1)

1–D. McCain (3/1**)

1–D. Pipe (11/8)

1–Renee Robeson (3/1**)

1–Sue Smith (9/4)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tim Pitt has saddled a winner this month via just three runners and all three of his potential raiders this week run at this meeting.  Tim boasts a strike rate of 29% at Lingfield during the last five years backed up by the same number of points from a level stake perspective.

 

SUNDAY 03/02:

Musselburgh:

MUSSELBURGH NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Musselburgh: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Musselburgh in 2013:

2–B. Ellison (7/1 & 5/1)

2–D Pipe (3/1* & 6/4*)

2–Venetia Williams (7/2 & 9/4*)

1–N. Alexander (7/1)

1–J Ferguson (13/2)

1–R. Ford (13/2)

1–P. Kirby (13/2)

1–D. McCain (4/6*)

1–Sandy Thomson (6/1)

1–T. Vaughan (4/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–D. McCain (5/2-4/9-11/10)

1–J. Ewart (7/4)

1–R. Fahey (11/4)

1–P. Niven (4/1)

1–D. Pipe (2/1)

1–N. Richards (7/2)

1–M. Smith (2/1)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Joe Fanning already has two booked rides at the meeting with the jockey having ridden 72 winners at the venue during the last five years via a 20% strike rate.  Joe’s LSP reading stands at fifty-nine points at the time of writing.

Well I Declare: 29th Jan to 3rd Feb 2013, 6.0 out of 10 based on 2 ratings