Well I Declare: 5th to 10th February 2013

Awful early month weather twelve months ago led to several abandoned meeting during which time, even all-weather fixtures were lost.

Early races when fixtures eventually returned were dominated by Lucinda Russell with Donald McCain following close behind under the NH Code.

Nicky Henderson soon jumped on the bandwagon of regular winners before Colin Tizzard and Alan King made late progress as the magical month of March appeared on the horizon.

Following yesterday’s tragic loss of horses, let’s hope the week improves for us on all fronts.

Leading trainers in February 2013 to date:

Number of races: 42

Winning favourites (includes joint & co favs): 18 (42.9%)

Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

Totals in 2013:

Number of races: 300

Winning favourites (includes joint & co favs): 121 (40.3%)

Odds on ratio: 43/69 (62.3%)

 

Trainers of winners in February:

3/8–Venetia Williams (2013 in total: 18/74)

3/10–Nicky Henderson (14/58)

3/10–Paul Nicholls (12/58)

3/17–Jonjo O’Neill (11/96)

3/12–David Pipe (16/43)

2/2–Lawney Hill (3/11)

2/7–Charlie Longsdon (4/43)

2/14–Sue Smith (4/25)

2/11–Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/53)

1–Mark Bradstock

1–Vic Dartnall

1–Mrs J. Dawson

1–Claire Dyson

1–Brian Ellison

1–James Ewart

1–Richard Guest

1–Richard Fahey

1–Harry Fry

1–Nick Gifford

1–Ed de Giles

1–Anthony Honeyball

1–Alan King

1–Donald McCain

1–Seamus Mullins

1–Dr Richard Newland

1–Fergal O’Brien

1–John Quinn

1–David Thompson

 

Trainers of winning favourites in February:

3–Venetia Williams (3/5)

3–Nicky Henderson (3/5)

2–Paul Nicholls (2/6)

2–David Pipe (2/3)

1–Mrs J. Dawson (1/1)

1–Lawney Hill (1/1)

1–Anthony Honeyball (1/2)

1–Donald McCain (1/3)

1–Jonjo O’Neill (1/4)

1–John Quinn (1/1)

1–Sue Smith (1/2)

1–Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites who have yet to saddle a successful market leader in February:

3–Rebecca Curtis

1–Tom George

1–Philip Hobbs

1–Malcolm Jefferson

1–Alan King

1–N. Mullholland

1–Fergal O’Brien

1–Keith Reveley

1–Lucinda Russell

1–Nick Williams

 

A/W–leading trainer’s list in February 2012:

14/49–M. Johnston

9/20–J. Osborne

7/108–Richard Guest

6/18–D. Simcock

6/53–R. Harris

6/43–A.W. Carroll

5/61–D. Evans

4/5–Rae Guest

4/8–J. Gosden

4/15–M. Channon

4/23–K. Dalgleish

3/4–R. Varian

3/10–T. Dascombe

3/10–J. Noseda

3/11–D. Barron

3/13–Jo Hughes

3/14–P. Phelan

3/14–B. Smart

3/19–R. Hollinshead

3/21–J. Jenkins

3/25–M. Appleby

3/25–C. Dore

Others to note:

2/3–Elaine Burke

2/4–D. Nicholls

2/5–G. Baker

2/5–J. Mackie

2/6–H. Morrison

2/8–H. Adielsson

2/9–M. Bell

2/10–R. Hannon

Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 05/02:

Market Rasen:

Recent statistics from the last three (winter) Market Rasen meetings:

Number of races: 19 (Boxing Day + 22^nd & 11^th November)

Number of winning favourites: 4 (21.0% of the 19 events):

(All nineteen winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less)

 

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

2–Fergal O’Brien (4/1 & 5/2)

 

Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sedgefield: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:

1–P. Atkinson (9/1)

1–S. Crawford (7/2*)

1–Mick Easterby (2/1)

1–J.M. Jefferson (7/2)

1–W. Kinsey (15/8*)

1–D. McCain (4/6*)

1–Tracy Waggott (25/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–N. Mulholland (7/4 & 8/13)

1–B. Ellison (6/4)

1–R. Lee (6/5)

 

Southwell:

1.40: Six of the nine favourites have snared toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four medallists.

3.10: Fourteen of the last available nineteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by three-year-olds.  Reporting that five of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (three winners), I cannot let the race pass by without mentioning the defeat of the 1/8 defeat of the market leader last year in a four runner (win only) event.

4.10: Two of the last three favourites have obliged, whilst seven of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners in total.

 

WEDNESDAY 06/02:

Carlisle:

Recent statistics from the last three Carlisle meetings:

Number of races: 21 (16^th December–12^th November–25^th October)

Number of winning favourites: 8 (38.1% of the 21 events):

(Seventeen winners were returned at odds of 13/2 or less)

 

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

6–Donald McCain (Five market leaders and a 10/11 non favourite!)

2–Neil Alexander (9/2 & 3/1**)

2–James Moffat (5/1 * 10/11*)

 

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ludlow: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead heat):

2–Tom Symonds (2/1* & 17/2)

2–Venetia Williams (2/1* & 9/1)

1–M. Bosley (3/1*)

1–H. Daly (11/2)

1–J. Groucott (7/1)

1–N. Henderson (4/5*)

1–P. Hobbs (7/1)

1–A. King (8/1)

1–R. Lee (4/1*)

1–N. Mulholland (25/1)

1–Dr Richard Newland (16/1)

1–J.J. O’Neill (11/2)

1–D. Pipe (6/4)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–N. Henderson (6/4 & 10/11)

2–Venetia Williams (11/4 & 15/8)

1–David Evans (11/4)

1–J. Ferguson (5/4)

1–P. Hobbs (7/4)

1–Evan Williams (10/3)

1–R. Woollacott (15/8)

 

Kempton:

The last four runners saddled by Garry Moss have finished in the first four (one winner) and his 2/6 record here could be improved upon by Lucky Mark who scored on his Kempton debut two weeks ago.

 

Southwell:

Six of Alan Bailey’s last nine runners have finished second whereby the trainer will be pleased to see Southwell opening its gates this week as the trainer boasts level stake profits of one hundred and thirty-four points at the track via a 26% strike rate during the last five years!

 

THURSDAY 07/02:

Doncaster:

DONCASTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Doncaster: 14

Favourite stats: 4 (28.6%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

2–Nicky Henderson (4/11* & 11/4**)

2–Keith Reveley (20/1 & 7/2)

1–Henry Daly (11/2)

1–Claire Dyson (8/1)

1–Harry Fry (13/8)

1–Tom George (9/2)

1–Richard Guest (9/2)

1–Anthony Honeyball (1/4*)

1–Charlie Longsdon (16/1)

1–Donald McCain (4/9*)

1–Paul Nicholls (85/40)

1–John Quinn (14/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–Alan King (3/1-9/4-13/2)

2–Jonjo O’Neill (2/1 & 5/1)

2–Jeremy Scott (7/2 & 7/4)

1–Nicky Henderson (Evs)

1–Neil Mulholland (10/3)

1–Paul Nicholls (11/4**)

1–Sue Smith (6/4)

 

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

3–N. Henderson (4/9*–4/7*–11/10*)

1–H. Daly (10/1)

1–John O’Neill (22/1)

1–A.E. Price (5/1)

1–T. Symonds (8/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–Roger Curtis (9/2)

1–T. George (13/8)

1–Jonjo O’Neill (3/1)

1–B. Powell (9/2**)

1–J. Scott (9/2**)

 

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.35: Four of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more to victory whilst no clear favourite obliged during the period.  That said, two joint favourites (11/4 & 5/1) prevailed in 2010 and 2005 respectively, whilst five of the last ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 4 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.05: Four of the last six winners were burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst successful favourites via the six renewals during the study period have only been conspicuous by their absence.

Three mile novice handicap chase event scheduled for 2.40: All six winners have carried 11-5 or more to victory, with four gold medallists having humped 11-12 to winning effect.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 3.15: Five of the six market leaders having finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Favourites come into the race on a hat trick.

Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.45: All four winners have carried weights ranging between 10-13 and 11-1 during which time, just one (11/10) favourites has obliged.

Four of the five renewals of this Hunter Chase event (scheduled for 4.15) have reverted to type, with fancied horses having scored at 8/11*-10/1*-5/2-15/8, albeit a 40/1 rogue gold medallist reared its ugly head back in 2010.  As a general rule of thumb, this sector of the sport provides more than it’s fair share of results which favour the punter.

Just one (9/4) favourite has scored via five renewals of the closing bumper event in which four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2.

 

Taunton:

TAUNTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Taunton: 7

Favourite stats: 7 (100.0%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Taunton in 2013:

3–Venetia Williams (6/4*-5/4*-4/6*)

2–P. Nicholls: (7/4* & 5/6*)

1–C. Down (3/1*)

1–P. Webber (4/9*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

None!

 

Wolverhampton:

Jordan Vaughan has scored on all four mounts at Wolverhampton to date, securing level stakes profits of twenty eight pounds into the bargain!  Jordan is booked to ride Young Jackie on the Wolverhampton card on Thursday, though the five-year-old has two alternative engagements at Wolverhampton/Lingfield on Saturday.

 

FRIDAY 08/02:

Bangor:

Recent statistics from the last four Bangor meetings:

Number of races: 27 (since the end of Carlisle‘s flat season)

Number of winning favourites: 13 (48.1% of the 21 events):

(24/27 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less)

 

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

4–Jonjo O’Neill (6/1-7/2**-9/4*-1/2*)

2–Sue Gardner (7/2** & 6/5*)

2–Donald McCain (6/1 & 7/4*)

2–Venetia Williams (9/1 & 7/1)

 

Newcastle:

NEWCASTLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Newcastle: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

1–J. Ewart (6/4*)

1–T. Gretton (9/2)

1–K. Reveley (5/2)

1–N. Richards (6/4*)

1–Lucinda Russell (3/1)

1–J. Wade (6/5*)

1–Sharon Watt (Evs*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–J. Norton (11/4)

1–D. O’Meara (13/8)

1–M. Todhunter (9/4)

 

Kempton (NH):

KEMPTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Kempton: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3

 

Trainers of winners at Kempton in 2013:

3–N. Henderson (5/1-3/10*-3/1*)

2–A. King (4/5* & 5/1)

2–Jonjo O’Neill (5/2** & 9/1)

1–Noel Chance (6/1)

1–Charlie Egerton (12/1)

1–Harry Fry (12/1)

1–Warren Greatrex (3/1)

1–Caroline Keevil (9/4*)

1–Gary Moore (10/1)

1–Paul Nicholls (7/1)

Conditional Jockeys event over the minimum trip scheduled for 1.10: The last five favourites have all finished out of the frame since the inaugural market leader obliged at odds of 15/8.

Twenty one furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: Three of the four market leaders have finished in the frame this far, statistics which include one winner.

Twenty one furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.50: Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals (two winners), whilst four gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Graduation Chase due to be contested at 3.25: Eight-year-old Champion Court was the only vintage representative in the mix at the time of writing, relevant horses having won three of the four renewals thus far.  Favourites come to the party on a hat trick.

Class 3, three-mile handicap chase event scheduled for 4.00: We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals (two of the five market leaders have finished in the frame), whilst nine-year-olds have scored on three occasions.

Closing bumper event: Philip Hobbs has saddled two of the last four winners, whilst five-year-olds have secured four of the five contests thus far.  Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick.

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6–P. Nicholls (9/2-5/4-2/1-7/4**-10/11-3/1)

1–B. Case (3/1)

1–N. Henderson (5/2**)

1–A. King (4/1)

1–D. McCain (5/4)

1–T. Vaughan (7/4**)

 

Wolverhampton:

Eight and a half furlong amateur rider event scheduled for 6.20: Five-year-olds have secured four of the five renewals to date.

Maiden event for fillies over eight and a half furlongs due to be contested at 7.50: Three-year-olds have own all four contests thus far whilst favourites come to this year’s gig on a hat trick.

Class 5 all aged handicap over eight and a half furlongs scheduled for 9.20:  Horses carrying a minimum burden have secured five of the seven available win and place positions to date, statistics which include all three (7/1-5/1-2/1*) winners.

 

SATURDAY 09/02:

Newbury:

NEWBURY NH DETAILS FOR 2013:  (UPDATED)

Number of races at Newbury: 7

Favourite stats: 5 (71.4%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Newbury in 2013:

1–A. Balding (8/1)

1–R. Barber (4/7*)

1–M. Channon (8/1)

1–H. Fry (7/4*)

1–A. King (7/4*)

1–P. Nicholls (5/4*)

1–D. Pipe (7/4*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–A. King (6/4)

1–R. Lee (4/1)

Novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last seven winners.  Paul held just one option for the race at the penultimate stage, with Ruby Walsh already jocked aboard Lac Fontana.  The biggest priced winner during the last nine renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won two of the last three contests, the other event being won by a 9/4 chance.

Class 2, three-mile handicap hurdle due to be contested at 1.50:  Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst six favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the period (one winner).

Grade 2, three-mile ‘Denman Chase’ scheduled for 2.25: Paul Nicholls has (appropriately) saddled three of the last five winners.

Game Spirit Chase scheduled for 3.00: Paul Nicholls held two entries at the time of writing in a race in which the trainer has saddled five of the last eight winners.  That said, Nicky Henderson comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

Betfair Hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Thirty five of the last forty horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions carried weights of less than 11-2 (including eight of the last ten winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained four of the last thirteen gold medallists. Nicky has also claimed an additional four toteplacepot positions in the process which makes for exceptional reading in what is always a competitive event.  Gary Moore has snared two of the last five renewals whilst five-year-olds have won four of the last six contests.  Five-year-olds secured gold, silver and bronze two years ago.  Seven of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (three winners).

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 4.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last four winners and Unioniste was Paul’s only entry at the time of writing with ‘Ruby’ already booking in the plate.  Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last six contests, whilst five favourites have won via seven renewals during the last decade.  The other three market leaders (joint favourites were returned in 2005) all finished out of the frame.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.40: Five-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, whilst securing eleven of the last available fifteen win and place positions.

 

Uttoxeter:

Recent statistics from the last three Uttoxeter meetings:

Number of races: 20 (31^st December–29^th & 17^th November)

Number of winning favourites: 5 (25.0% of the 20 events):

(16/20 winners were returned at odds of 17/2 or less)

 

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

4–Donald McCain (7/2-10/3*-11/8*-1/3*)

2–Nigel Hawke (17/2 & 15/8)

2–Philip Hobbs (7/2 & 9/4)

 

Warwick:

WARWICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Warwick: 7

Favourite stats: 1 (14.3%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Warwick in 2013:

2–N. Twiston-Davies (5/1 & 1/2*)

1–T. George (11/2)

1–C. Longsdon (12/1)

1–P. Nicholls (7/4)

1–C. Tizzard (14/1)

1–Venetia Williams (5/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–T. George (4/1)

1–Emma Lavelle (6/5)

1–C. Longsdon (7/2)

1–J.J. O’Neill

1–D. Pipe (10/3)

1–Venetia Williams (7/2)

 

Lingfield:

Lucy Wadham’s only potential runner at the Surrey venue this week is her course and distance winner Manshoor, hopefully representing a trainer who boasts a level stake profit of forty-two points in recent times via a 24% strike rate.

 

Wolverhampton:

Huffoof is one of only five potential runners for leading trainer Roger Varian this week, Roger’s short career already having taken off at Dunstall Park via a strike rate of 35%, backed up by n LSP reading of twenty-four points.

 

SUNDAY 10/02:

Exeter:

EXETER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Exeter: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.9% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1 (100.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Exeter in 2013:

2–Susan Gardner (9/4 & 5/6)

1–T. George (6/5*)

1–P. Nicholls (5/6*)

1–D. Pipe (4/1)

1–B. Powell (6/1)

1–C. Tizzard (7/2)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–P. Hobbs (3/1 & 11/8)

1–V. Dartnall (11/10)

1–Emma Lavelle (3/1)

 

Southwell:

David Barron’s Rock Hard Ten newcomer Tranquility Cove is David’s only projected runner at Southwell this week at a venue which has served David well in the past.  David’s 25% strike rate during the last five years is backed up by level stake profits of ninety-three points and I am hoping that the filly can score to create a winner on the occasion of my 59^th birthday.  No cards please….presents are fine, but no cards!

Well I Declare: 5th to 10th February 2013, 9.0 out of 10 based on 1 rating