Well I Declare: 8th to 12th January 2013

As promised last week, I offer the 2013 statistics thus far in the NH sector, a feature that I will be including on a weekly basis.  You will also find (where relevant), statistics for the individual meetings as they occur.  Obviously details are limited for now, but they will build week on week into a valuable source of facts and figures for the relevant venues.

Chepstow and Catterick start us off this week as an example of what is in store throughout the year.

 

NH DETAILS FOR 2013 (up to and including Monday 7th January): 

Number of races: 92

Favourite stats: 34 (37.0% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 11/19 (57.9%)

 

Trainers of winners in 2013 (minimum of two):  

7–Venetia Williams

5–P. Nicholls

5–D. Pipe

5–Lucinda Russell

4–D. McCain

3–B. Ellison

3–Gary Moore

2–N. Alexander

2–J. Ferguson

2–Susan Gardner

2–T. George

2–J.J. Lambe

2–K. Reveley

2–T. Vaughan

2–J. Wade

2–P. Webber

2–D. Whillans

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (minimum of two):  

6–D. McCain

4–P. Hobbs

4–P. Nicholls

4–J.J. O’Neill

2–Rebecca Curtis

2–A. Hales

2–N. Henderson

2–Emma Lavelle

2–C. Longsdon

2–D. Pipe

2–M. Todhunter

 

Leading trainers in the A/W sector since the end of the turf season:

19/115–David Evans

15/63–Marco Botti

13/37–David O’Meara (level stake profit of sixteen points)

11/67–Andrew Balding

11/67 Jamie Osborne

10/54–Stan Moore (level stake profit of eighteen points)

9/52–Kevin Ryan

9/53–John Ryan (level stake profit of fifteen points)

 

3YO Handicap sector in 2013:

Record of favourites in 3YO handicap races in 2013: 5/11 (45.5%)

Odds On market leaders: 3/5 (60.0%)

 

Statistics relevant up to and including Monday 7th January (figures include one dead heat scenario).

 

Leading trainers in 3YO A/W handicap races in 2013:

2–J.S. Moore (16/1 & 12/1)

1–T. Dascombe (10/11*)

1–E. Dunlop (11/4*)

1–David (P.D.) Evans (9/2)

1–R. Fahey (11/2)

1–Richard Guest (5/4*)

1–Gay Kelleway (9/4)

1–R. Mills (2/1)

1–D. O’Meara (4/5*)

1–R. Teal (2/1)

1–Stuart Williams (1/2*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites in 3YO Handicaps in 2013:

1–A Balding (4/5)

1–R. Beckett (7/4)

1–G. Baker (11/4)

1–J. Gosden (7/4)

1–Rae Guest (2/1)

1–M. Johnston (4/6)

 

Day by day comments:

 

TUESDAY 08/01:

Leicester:

Last year’s corresponding meeting witnessed a 116/1 double (12/1 & 8/1) for Tony Carroll on a six race card which produced two successful favourites.  Tony held four entries on Tuesday’s Leicester card at the time of writing.

The last three NH meetings (since the end of the flat season at Leicester) have gone the way of the punters as eight favourites have won via nineteen races (42.1%).  That said, only one of the three odds on market leaders obliged during the study period.

Sixteen of the nineteen winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less however, the other three gold medallists having won at 17/2–9/1–12/1.

Only Neil King has saddled more than one winner via the three fixtures, scoring with 5/1-4/1-5/2 chances, none of which were sent off as favourites for their respective events.   Neil has only saddled more NH winners at Huntingdon, Plumpton and Uttoxeter than he has gained at Leicester where King boasts a 21% strike rate.  Neil saddles Samarkand in the opening race with an each way chance.

Nigel Twiston-Davies was the only trainer to saddle more than one beaten favourite during the period, market leaders which were sent off at 4/9 & 9/4.  Out of interest, Nigel has only scored with one of his last sixteen hurdlers at Leicester.

 

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH 2013 DETAILS:

Number of races at Chepstow: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

1–Rebecca Curtis (7/2)

1–V. Dartnall (9/2)

1–J. Ferguson (10/3)

1–P. Nicholls (10/11*)

1–D. Pipe (5/1**)

1–M. Scudamore (10/1)

1–Venetia Williams (7/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3–P. Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4)

2–Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4)

1–J.J. O’Neill (5/1**)

 

Wolverhampton:

Recent statistics from the last four cards if you count Friday’s marathon fixture as two!

Number of races: 32

Number of winning favourites: 16 (50.0% of the 32 Events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

5–D. O’Meara (9/4-7/2**-5/4*-8/13*-4/7*)

3–A. McCabe (11/1-4/1-13/8*)

2–D. Barron (16/1 & 4/1)

2–David Evans (16/1 & 4/1

2–Stan Moore (16/1 & 12/1)

 

WEDNESDAY 09/01:

Doncaster:

General stats: James Ewart boasts outstanding stats on Town Moor via a 37% strike rate (7/19) which is backed up by a level stake profit of twenty-one points during the last five years.  James held nine option for Wednesday’s card at the time of writing.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Jockey Jack Quinlan has ridden three winners via just eight assignments at Ludlow, whilst trainer Nicky Henderson very much rules the roost at this venue.  That said, John Ferguson has saddled three of his four runners at Ludlow to winning effect.

 

Kempton:

Recent statistics from the last four Kempton cards:

Number of races: 29

Number of winning favourites: 9 (31.0% of the 29 Events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

2–A. Balding (12/1 & 9/2)

2–M. Botti (9/4* & 10/11*)

2–J. Boyle (6/1 & 4/5*)

 

Lingfield:

Recent statistics from the last four Lingfield cards:

Number of races: 30

Number of winning favourites: 11 (36.7 of the 30 Events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

4–David Evans (9/2-7/2**-7/4*-4/6*)

2–P. McEntee (10/1 & 8/1)

2–R. Mills (5/1 & 4/1)

2–R. Teal (8/1 & 2/1)

2–R. Varian (4/6* & 4/11*)

 

THURSDAY 10/01:

Catterick:

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Catterick: 6

Favourite stats: 3 (50.0% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3 (66.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

2–K. Reveley (Evs* & 1/5*)

1–B. Ellison (6/1)

1–D. McCain (2/1)

1–S. Shirley-Beavan (10/1)

1–J. Wade (4/6*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1–D. McCain (3/1)

1–K. Reveley (6/4)

1–M. Todhunter (4/9)

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ralph Beckett and James Fanshawe are two trainers to keep on the right side at Kempton in general terms, the pair of handlers averaging a 22% strike rate between them.  Throw in aggregate level stake profits of over one hundred and theory points (via similar returns) during the last five years and you have statistics which are well worth digesting.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: John Gosden held entries earlier in the week with the trainer boasting a 25% record at the track during the last five years (thirty-seven winners) whilst offering a thirty-six point LSP reading.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: George Margarson (three of his last six runners had won at the time of writing) just about boasts the best combined stats at Dunstall Park of the potentially represented trainers on Thursday.  George has produced level stake profits of thirty points via a 22% strike rate during the last five years.

 

FRIDAY 11/01:

Huntingdon:

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.50: One joint and two clear favourites have prevailed via five renewals thus far, the biggest priced winner to date being sent off at 8/1.  The other four gold medallists were returned at 7/2 or less.  Three of the last five runners saddled by Venetia Williams at the time of writing had won, with Venetia having landed two of the five renewals of this event thus far.  Venetia held two options earlier in the week for this contest.

Class 4 novice hurdle qualifier event scheduled for 1.20: Five-year-olds have won seven of the eight contests, whilst three of the last five favourites have scored.  Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last four winners whilst securing silver medals on the other occasions.  Nicky held four options for this event at the time of writing.

Class 4 two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests, though just one favourite has obliged since 2002.  Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-2 have secured five of the last six renewals.

Two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 2.20: Nicky Henderson’s 1/4 favourite was beaten a head twelve months ago as favourite sought a hat trick (from as many renewals) in the contest.  Nicky also had a 1/5 chance beaten on last year’s card.

Class 5 handicap chase scheduled for 3.20: The three favourites to date have secured two silver medals between them, the biggest priced winners being sent off at 5/1.  Five of the six available toteplacepot/each way positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum weight of 11-2, statistics which include all three winners.

Novice handicap event for mares scheduled for 3.20: Only one of four favourites has finished in the money (no winners) via three renewals.  Horses carrying 11-5 or less have secured seven of the eight available toteplacepot positions, stats which include all three (8/1-7/1-7/1) winners.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Favourites have secured one gold and two silver medals to date via just the three contests.  Nicky Henderson’s only five-day stage entry was his Old Vic gelding Act Four, the trainer coming into the contest on a hat trick.

 

Sedgefield:

Recent statistics from the last three Sedgefield cards:

Number of races: 21

Number of winning favourites: 11 (52.4% of the 21 Events):

Trainers with more than one winner during the period:

5–D. McCain (3/1-13/5-2/1*-10/11*-4/5*)

3–N. Richards (10/1-10/1-8/15*)

2–J. Moffat (10/1 & 3/1)

2–Sue Smith (25/1 & 13/8)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Joe Fanning rides one winner to every five mounts at Lingfield according to the statistics during the last five years, whilst the gold medallists have contributed to a level stake profit of fifty-seven points in the process.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: David O’Meara has enjoyed a run of scintillating form of late.  David’s last seventeen runners (at the time of writing) had produced nine winners, five seconds and two third placed horses!  David boasts a recent strike rate of 27% at Dunstall Park, a ratio which is backed up by an LSP reading of thirteen points.

 

SATURDAY 12/01:

Kempton (NH):

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.20. Although eight of the nine winners have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, we had to wait until last year for the first favourite to oblige.

Two mile novice chase contests scheduled for 12.55: Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last four winners.

‘Lanzarote Hurdle’ scheduled for 2.40: Six-year-olds have won four of the five renewals at odds of 20/1–9/1–8/1–9/2 whilst the 7/4 favourite obliged in the other contest.  All five winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less. Nick Williams comes to the gig on a hat trick and his only entry at the penultimate stage was Un Bon P’Tit Gars.

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.50: Six-year-olds have won eight of the last nine renewals during which time, two favourites have obliged.  Horses carrying 11-3 or more have secured ten of the last fourteen available toteplacepot/each way positions, statistics which include four of the five winners at 40/1-4/1-7/2-3/1.

 

Lingfield:

Claiming event scheduled for 12.15: Two of the three favourites have prevailed this far, the other market leader finishing out of the ‘short field’ frame in third place.  New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.  David Evans was responsible for two of the twelve entries at the time of writing, the trainer having landed two of the three contests thus far.

One mile maiden event scheduled for 12.50: All three market leaders have obliged to date.

Six furlong Class 3 maiden event scheduled for 1.25: Two of the three favourites have scored, the biggest priced winner being returned at just 4/1.

Ten furlong Class 3 handicap event due to be contested at 3.10: We still await the first successful favourite in this event, albeit two market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Class 5 ten furlong handicap event scheduled for 3.40: All three winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more, as have five of the nine runners to have finished in the frame.

 

Warwick:

Two mile Class 4 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-4, whilst just one favourite has obliged via seven contests.

Three mile novice chase event scheduled for 1.15: Only one (2/5) favourite has prevailed via seven renewals to date.  That said, the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 5/1.

Two mile handicap chase event (Edward Courage Cup) scheduled for 1.50: Favourites have won four of the six events, whilst seven-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.

‘Pertemps Qualifier’ scheduled for 2.25: Six of the seven winners have carried weights of 10-12 or less.

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.00: Four of the last six renewals have been secured by market leaders during which time, five-year-olds have won on three occasions.

Grade 3 handicap chase event scheduled for 3.35: Horses returned in double figures have won five of the last eight contests (one successful favourite) with Alan King having saddled two of the last three winners at odds of 18/1 and 10/1.  Alan held two options for the race at the time of writing.

 

Wetherby:

Two and a half mile novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 12.40: Seven-year-olds have secured three of the six renewals with representatives placed in the other three contests.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.25: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded since a market leader won the inaugural contest back in 2004.  That said, the biggest priced winner to date was returned at 6/1.

Well I Declare: 8th to 12th January 2013, 9.6 out of 10 based on 7 ratings