2010 Breeders Cup: Friday Preview

2010 Breeders Cup logo

2010 Breeders Cup logo

Just a couple more days until the fourteen race festival of racing that is the Breeders Cup gets under way at Churchill Downs, the home of the Kentucky Derby. And I've been all out trying to figure the potential champs from the overbet chumps.

There's a strong possibility that I've got some right and some wrong - such is the way of these things - and do bear in mind that generally I've looked for value bets, so I might well have tried to make a case for getting some of the shorter priced horses beaten.

With that caveat in situ, let's take a look at Friday's Breeders Cup races, starting with...

8.10 Breeders Cup Marathon


Marathon PP - Post Position RS - Running Style Sharp last race? CD form? Required stamina? Beyer Top
Alcomo S Y N Y 97
Atoned SR Y N ? 96
AU Miner R Y Y ? 104
Awesome Gem R N N N 106
Bright Horizon WS Y N Y 88 ?
Eldaafer S Y N Y 100
Gabriel's Hill W N N ? 94
Giant Oak S Y Y N 104
Million Seller S Y N N 85
Precision Break S N N Y 91 ?
Prince Will I Am R Y Y Y 90
Romp R Y N ? 91
Temple City S N N Y 100

Likely Pace Scenario

The letters in the tables mean the following: there are three main running styles: horses who are front runners (or Wire horses, 'W'); horses who track the lead (or Stalk, 'S'); and horses who sit off the pace and make a late run (or Rally, 'R').

Some horses vary their pace style - as they do in UK, and indeed everywhere - between a couple of these styles, and this is where you'll see for instance, WS. Meaning the horse runs both from the front and sometimes near the front.

Finally, if you see for instance Ws (i.e. capital W, small s), this means the horse is predominantly a front-runner but occasionally sits just off the lead.

Gabriel’s Hill looks the likeliest pace setter, and Irish Bright Horizon could take her on up front, to ensure an honest clip.

The main pack is likely to comprise Alcomo, Eldaafer, Giant Oak, Million Seller, Precision Break and Temple City; with the ‘ralliers’ being Atoned, AU Miner, Awesome Gem, Prince Will I am, and Romp.

The race has, in its two runnings to date, set up for a closer. With just two Euro challengers in the field, it doesn’t look good for the ‘away’ team here, as neither Bright Horizon nor Precision Break typically comes from far back.

Travelers / Likelihood of Track Suiting View

Bright Horizon has run three times on the synthetic (quite different from the dirt track here), and done no better than 2nd. His sire, Galileo, didn’t seem to act on dirt when finishing sixth in the Classic at Belmont back in 2001.

Precision Break has a much more compelling synthetic record, with four wins from seven all weather starts. His daddy, Silver Deputy, is responsible for a number of high class dirt winners, most notably Silverbulletday, who had two Grade 1 wins at Churchill Downs to his name. There is a good chance of Precision acting on the surface, and we know he’ll have no problems with the distance of the race.

Of the home shippers, Awesome Gem was third on the slop at Monmouth Park in the 2007 Classic, but has otherwise not shipped far from the West Coast and is overlooked, with this being half a mile further than he’s run before.

Gabriel’s Hill has yet to perform with much merit away from the West Coast.

Favourite Giant Oak has yet to win on dirt in nine tries at the surface, and looks opposable (he has been 2nd four times).

Prince Will I Am has form at the track albeit at a lower level, and looks like he’ll get the trip too.

Romp has shown little away from SoCal and is readily passed over.

Speed Ratings

It is not clear how important a speed figure will be with the pace likely to be fairly sedate for much of the race. The winner may be the horse who gets into the best rhythm, saves the most ground on the turns, and has the best kick. On that basis, I’d be interested in Precision Break. However, for the record, here are the top speed figure horses:

Awesome Gem                106
AU Miner            104
Giant Oak            104

Summary / Selections

There’s very little history to go in, with just two previous races, one over a shorter trip and both on a completely different surface to the dirt here.

As such, confidence is thin, but I do feel that Precision Break has the stamina, and the non-turf form (albeit on synthetic surfaces). Moreover, his sire has produced plenty of dirt winners at a high class level. The 20/1 may prove quite generous.

Of the home team, Giant Oak may appreciate this step up in trip though that’s to be taken on trust. Alcomo hasn’t raced since mid-July, which is a big negative as he otherwise fitted quite well here.

The pick of the proven US performers are likely to be Awesome Gem and A.U. Miner.

Likeliest Winner: Awesome Gem
Contender(s): A.U. Miner, Giant Oak, Precision Break
Best Outsider(s): Precision Break

8.50 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf


Juv Fillies Turf PP - Post Position RS - Running Style Sharp last race? CD form? 25-35 day layoff? Won 1.06m+ turf/7f Euro? Top Beyer last out? Top Beyer* Lasix
Allure d'Amour 14 S Y N N Y Y 78 Y
Arch Support 6 WS N N Y Y N 69 Y
Fancy Point 9 W N N Y Y N 81 Y
Flood Plain 12 S Y N N Y Y 80
Kathmanblu 4 R Y N N Y N 78 Y
More Than Real 11 SR Y N N Y Y 85 Y
New Normal 10 W Y N N N Y 88 Y
Quiet Oasis 3 S Y N N Y Y 88
Tale Untold 2 S Y N N Y N 84
Together 13 S Y N Y Y N 99
Winter Memories 7 R Y N Y Y Y 80 Y
Wyomia 8 S Y N Y N Y 57 Y
Dos Lunas 1 S N Y Y N N 78 Y
Forest Legend 5 S Y N Y N Y 62

Likely Pace Scenario

With Nina Fever balloted out, Fancy Point and New Normal look set to press the lead, and Arch Support may join them. This is almost certainly a race that will favour a filly who can sit in off the pace, and rally – perhaps three or four wide – round the home turn before kicking on in the straight.

I’ll be looking to a stalking horse in this one (or possibly a closer, but not a horse that comes from a mile back).

Travelers / Likelihood of Track Suiting View

West Coasters and, surprisingly, Euros have failed to make an impact in the two races for this pot so far. In fact, runners exiting the Miss Grillo, a Grade 3 run at Belmont, have won both starts. From that perspective, Winter Memories – the 5 ¼ length victor of the Miss Grillo last time out – must figure.

She is unquestionably the pick of the home team, though the 1-2 in the Natalma Stakes, New Normal and More Than Real, should also be considered.

The Europeans shippers have disappointed so far, and the overraced Together plus Richard Hannon’s relatively exposed Tale Untold are of limited interest.

Perversely perhaps, I quite like Meehan’s Quiet Oasis, despite her being a turf maiden.

Speed Ratings

The best rated speed horses are:

Together                             99*
New Normal                      88
Quiet Oasis                         88*
More Than Real                                85
(Winter Memories)         80

*Racing Post Rating less twelve points, is an approximation to align with US Beyer speed figures.

Summary / Selections

Another race with little to go on. Winter Memories, although not having posted an especially fast time, looks like she holds the aces, and with her impressive late running style, it’s possible she could trounce these.

Aidan O’Brien’s Together is fastest filly in the field and has the best form too. But she’s had a lot of racing this season (seven runs already), and reminds me a lot of Lillie Langtry, who came here with better form and managed just 8th at odds of 6/4 favourite. (She may also be compromised by a very wide draw).

Value against the top two are the aforementioned Quiet Oasis, who is unexposed, and ran as fast as Together has when fourth in a Curragh Group 3; and More Than Real who, although beaten by New Normal last time, has a better profile for this race than her vanquisher the last day.

One taking a vast step up in class, and saddled with a tough draw too, is Allure d’Amour. Nevertheless, despite those question marks, there was a lot to like about her easy win last time in a maiden special weight. With her daddy being the tough as teak Giant’s Causeway, if she can get near the front, they may find her tough to pass at a monster price.

Likeliest Winner: Winter Memories
Contender(s): More Than Real, Quiet Oasis
Best Outsider(s): Allure d’Amour

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9.30 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint


Filly/Mare Sprint PP - Post Position RS - Running Style Sharp last race? Dirt form? Graded 7f win? CD form? Top Beyer* 4 weeks+ layoff? SoCal 'away' winner? Grade 1 Stakes winner? Lasix
Champagne d'Oro 14 W Y Y Y N 97 Y N Y Y
Dubai Majesty 12 S Y Y N Y 100 Y N N Y
Evening Jewel 5 SR N Y N Y 94 N Y Y Y
Gabby's Golden Gal 7 W Y Y Y N 96 Y Y Y Y
Informed Decision 4 S Y Y Y Y 105 Y Y Y Y
Jessica Is Back 11 WS N Y N N 111 Y N Y Y
Moontune Missy 6 SW Y Y N N 93 Y N N Y
My Jen 1 S Y Y N N 94 Y N N Y
Rightly So 13 W Y Y Y N 100 Y N Y Y
Sara Louise 2 S Y Y N Y 104 Y N N Y
Secret Gypsy 3 WS Y Y N Y 103 Y N N Y
Sweet August Moon 8 SR Y N Y N 96 Y Y N Y
Switch 9 S Y N N N 100 Y Y N Y
Rinterval 10 W N N N N 95 Y N N Y

Likely Pace Scenario

Although called a sprint, this is a seven furlong contest, and demands both tactical speed and a smidgen of stamina to boot. One stalker and two late running types have won this in its three year history, so speed looks to be unfavoured. That said, again we’re dealing with a very small sample size and the race has been run under three different conditions so far!

There look to be a lot of ladies who’d like to lead here, which probably sets it up for a closer. Rightly So has blistering early and looks likely to attempt to go wire to wire in defense of her perfect 3-out-of-3 record at the distance. She may need that early from box 13!

Moontune Missy, Rinterval and Champagne d’Oro look set to follow her around, all close up at the first time check (though the last named has a tough draw too, in 14).

There is a strong likelihood of a speed duel, and I’m tempted to lay Rightly So on that basis.

Travelers / Likelihood of Track Suiting View

Rinterval, Switch and Sweet August Moon have all to demonstrate their dedication to dirt, but the rest of the field has dirt form. This is a race that is won by seven furlong specialists (unsurprising given the race distance, but often overlooked by punters), and the pick of these are Informed Decision, Rightly So and Sweet August Moon. The last named is a West Coast shipper and may find this tough (she was well beaten in her only race away from the sea breeze, last time out at Keeneland).

Speed Ratings

It is a sprint race, so – again unsurprisingly – the numbers matter, especially in light of the probability of a fast run race. These are the top rated horses according to Mr A Beyer:

Jessica Is Back                    111 (best at 7f is 91)
Informed Decision           105 (best at 7f is 105)
Sara Louise                         104 (best at 7f is 91)
Secret Gypsy                     103 (best at 7f is 103)
Rightly So                            100 (best at 7f is 100)
Dubai Majesty                   100 (best at 7f is 99)
Switch                                   100 (best at 7f is 97)

Summary / Selections

The race revolves around speedy and prolific Rightly So. She’s never been out of the first two on dirt, and is has a hundred per cent record at seven furlongs, winning all three of her races at the trip of this Breeders Cup contest.

But… she’s horribly berthed in 13 and is unlikely to get her own way up front. So, in order to win, she’ll have to break like lightning from her outside post, tack across (roughly six lengths from there), repel fast horses early, and still have enough left to fend off the closers. When put like that, it is very hard to make a case for Rightly So. She is the 4/1 favourite and I can see her being nowhere in exactas and trifectas, setting up some potentially nice payoffs if we can find the combination. Big IF!

Informed Decision is the ‘forgotten horse’. Bizarre when you consider she’s the reigning champ, has a 64% win record at the distance (7 from 11) and a 91% place record (10 from 11). At 13/2 and 7/1 she looks an absolute knocking each way bet.

True, she’s not been in the same form this season as last, but was still third in the course and distance Humana Grade 1, and she’s recorded a super fast ‘bullet’ workout (a bullet is awarded to the horse that works the fastest on each morning) since her last run, and should be spot on for this from post position 4.

Two that could run well at prices are Secret Gypsy and Gabby’s Golden Gal (G3 for short). The Gypsy has form in the book way back at the trip, including a course and distance annihilation of a lower class field. She’s been running consistently well at six furlongs this year at all kinds of tracks, and has won her last three prior to a rest.

Her work hasn’t been fantastic, but she has won off a layoff before – in Grade 2 company as well – so she’s no forlorn hope from a good draw on a surface that will suit and with big speed figures in the bag. 20/1 looks very big.

G3 may get into a speed duel which would clearly compromise her chances. But, if they go off too quick for her in the opening fractions, she can sit in close and kick on. She’s won on the surface, is a regular traveler and recorded a bullet on October 23rd. 16’s is fair though not stellar value. Oh yes, and she’s also not run since 31st January…!

Likeliest Winner: Informed Decision
Contender(s): Secret Gypsy, Gabby’s Golden Gal
Best Outsider(s): Secret Gypsy

10.10 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies


Juvenile Fillies PP - Post Position RS - Running Style Sharp Frizette, Oak Leaf, Alcibiades? Won at 7f+ on dirt? Improved Beyer up in trip? Inside Draw? Graded Stakes winner? Top Beyer* 95+ Beyer LTO? 3+ starts? Lasix
Awesome Feather 4 W N Y Y Y N 87 N Y Y
A Z Warrior 8 W Y Y Y N Y 81 N Y Y
Believe In A.P. 10 R N Y Y N N 75 N Y Y
Delightful Mary 9 Sw N N Y N N 86 N Y Y
Harlan's Ruby 5 Sw Y N Y Y N 74 N Y Y
Indian Gracey 1 SW Y N Y Y N 83 N Y Y
Izshelegal 7 R N N N N N 72 N Y Y
Jordy Y 13 S? Y N Y N N 73 N Y Y
Joyful Victory 6 S N Y N Y N 77 N N Y
R Heat Lightning 3 S Y Y Y Y Y 78 N Y Y
Soundwave 11 Ws N N N N N 69 N Y Y
Tell A Kelly 12 R Y N N N Y 86 N Y Y
Theyskens' Theory 2 W N N Y Y Y 97 Y Y N

Likely Pace Scenario

There’s a fair bit of pace again here, with at least four confirmed front runners in the field. In a race where late closers rarely get competitive and where there looks like being a contest for the lead early, the safest play is probably to take a stalking type. Delightful Mary, Harlan’s Ruby, Indian Gracey, Jordy Y, Joyful Victory and R Heat Lightning all fit on that score at least.

If the sole Euro raider, Theyskens’ Theory is held back a little, she might be a very interesting entry.

Stakes Winner / 7f+ Win on Dirt

There are some strong trends in this race:

-          22 of 25 winners had won a stakes race that season

-          Ran well (won or within four lengths of the winner) in last race (all 25 winners)

-          Last race within five weeks (21 out of 25)

Only four score maximum points: Awesome Feather, A Z Warrior, R Heat Lightning, and Tell A Kelly.

Theyskens’ Theory misses by less than a week, so makes the cut.

Speed Ratings

This is a very slow year on the speed ratings. With numerous last time out winners capable of improving, there is scope for a bomb result here.

Theyskens’ Theory          97*
Awesome Feather          87
Delightful Mary                 86
Tell A Kelly                          86
Indian Gracey                    83

Summary / Selections

Not a race to go long on, and probably one to hit the ‘ALL’ button in Pick 3-4-6 bets. I can easily see a shock result here, and have little confidence in the selections I’m about to put up!

The Brit shipper Theyskens’ Theory would have had a great shout in the turf equivalent but instead runs here. She’s tough and has the best speed figure by far, if you accept the translation. That was earned on grass of course, and she’ll have to demonstrate a liking for fast dirt here. If she does, she’ll be competitive.

Awesome Feather comes up from Calder, which is a bit like going to Ascot after winning three races at Catterick. It can be done, but it isn’t normally. That said, she has the best US figures, ticks all boxes, and could do little more than win her last three races by a combined seventeen lengths, and all at odds on! She’s five from five, all on fast dirt, and including over the distance. If there is an ‘obvious’ bet here, she’s probably it. (Obvious? Probably? Duh!)

My bet here will be to try to scramble through the Pick 3 (using the ‘ALL’ key), and hope to hit a big exacta with Awesome on top and underneath against all the rest (except Izshelegal who must surely finish last!)

In UK English, I’ll have every horse running for me in the mini-jackpot, and will have all bar Izshe in a reverse forecast with Awesome. Did that make any sense?!

Likeliest Winner: Awesome Feather
Contender(s): A Z Warrior, R Heat Lightning, Tell A Kelly, Theyskens’ Theory
Best Outsider(s): Delightful Mary

10.50 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf


Filly/Mare Turf PP - Post Position RS - Running Style Sharp last race? Trip form or breeding? 4-7 seasonal runs? 4/5 domestic, 3 Euro? G1 win this season G1 win last 2 seasons? Dom <35 days off, Euro 28+? Previous FM Turf Run? Top Beyer* 103+ Beyer this season? Lasix
Éclair de Lune 2 S Y Y Y Y Y Y N N 98 N Y
Forever Together 11 SR N Y Y N N Y Y Y 101 N Y
Harmonious 6 Rs Y Y Y N Y Y Y N 100 N Y
Hibaayeb 9 S Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 98 N Y
Hot Cha Cha 8 S Y N Y Y N Y Y N 98 N Y
Keertana 4 Sr Y Y Y Y N N Y N 95 N Y
Midday 7 Sr Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 112 Y N
Miss Keller 3 SR Y Y Y Y N N Y N 102 N Y
Plumania 1 S N Y Y N Y Y Y N 104 Y N
Red Desire 10 Rs Y Y Y N N Y Y N 106 Y Y
Shared Account 5 WS N N Y Y N N Y N 98 N Y

Likely Pace Scenario

Next to no pace on here, and a good chance of a dawdle. If that’s how it pans out, then it will pay to be handily placed close to the speed, and have a good finishing kick. The Euro horse that really suits is Plumania, who is used to booting on close home off funereal gallops in France. I can’t see anything coming from more than four or five lengths off the pace to win this, and they may well stack up meaning traffic problems and hard luck stories. The wide route off the home turn could be the money route.

Profile View

Europeans and ex-European-trained horses have won eight of the eleven runnings of this race and must be the way to enter this year’s contest. I’m going to include Red Desire even though she is Japanese. She has solid form lines with some of the best Euro runners, and has been settled here a while.

The US horses I’m kicking out at this stage are Forever Together, Harmonious, Hot Cha Cha, Keertana and Shared Account. I will however include some of them in exacta perms.

All profile angles point to Midday doubling up on last year.

Speed Ratings

The speed ratings add further ballast, if it were needed, to Midday’s prospects, although I don’t expect this to be a fast run affair, as mentioned in the pace profile section.

Midday                                 112
Red Desire                          106
Plumania                             104
Miss Keller                          102
Forever Together            101
Harmonious                       100

Summary / Selections

This is all about Midday and, frankly, it’s very hard to see her being beaten. The two girls in the race that could usurp her are Red Desire and Plumania, and not just because of the speed ratings. Midday has already beaten Plumania into second in a hot Prix Vermeille earlier this year, and that was off a slow pace. She’s won three Group 1’s on the spin against the ladies and she’s going to take some stopping, especially when you consider she’s in even better form than when winning this race last year.

The exacta looks likely to be between Plumania and Red Desire on form. But… as I’ve said, I don’t expect all horses and riders to enjoy trouble-free passages here. Kent Desormeaux is a fine capture to steer Red Desire, and Olivier Peslier rides US turf well having sent Goldikova home twice in the Mile as well as Banks Hill in this race back in 2001.

Hibaayeb is a filly on whom I’ve lost plenty this season, and it would be hugely frustrating, were she to oblige this day. Her win in the Yellow Ribbon has been pooh-poohed, but she could do no more than triumph on her first start in the States. She’s included on the all-Euro exacta ticket.

The potential ‘simple exacta spoiler’, or fly in the ointment if you prefer, may be Éclair de Lune. She’s not run since late August, but her win in the Beverly D that last time out gives her a squeak of splitting the strong Euro challenge.

Finally, I’m against Harmonious, who is the up and coming US filly. As a three year old, she has a heck of a lot on her plate here against top Europeans and domestic elders. She does have a progressive profile, and is trained by Zenyatta’s handler, John Shirreffs. But no race beyond a mile and a quarter and up in class and age here says she’ll find it tough.

Likeliest Winner: Midday
Contender(s): Plumania, Red Desire, Hibaayeb
Best Outsider(s): Éclair de Lune

11.30 Breeders Cup Distaff (Ladies Classic)


Distaff PP - Post Position RS - Running Style 6-8 races this season? Win or ran sharp in G1? Sharp LTO? >30 days LTO/bullet work? Won or placed at 9f+? Inside draw? LTO Beyer Best? Lasix
Acoma 9 Rs N Y Y Y Y N N Y
Acting Happy 5 W Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y
Blind Luck 10 Rs Y Y Y N Y N Y Y
Havre de Grace 11 Sw N Y Y N Y N Y Y
Its Tea Time 2 SR Y Y N Y Y Y N Y
Life At Ten 1 Sw Y Y Y N Y Y N Y
Malibu Prayer 3 W N Y Y N Y Y N Y
Milwaukee Appeal 4 S N Y Y Y Y Y N Y
Persistently 6 Rs Y Y N N Y N N Y
Seeking The Title 7 SR N N N N N N N Y
Unrivalled Belle 8 Sw Y Y Y N Y N N Y

Likely Pace Scenario

This race sets up for a filly or mare that can be close at the far turn, about half a mile out, regardless of her early running style. Those who most closely resemble that are Havre de Grace, Milwaukee Appeal and Unrivalled Belle.

There looks to be a fair amount of pace in the field, and it could be that Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer and Life At Ten are crying enough long before the home turn. If one of them can get loose on the lead, though, they’ll hang tough until late in the day.

The short priced favourite, Blind Luck, will need something close to just that if she’s to justify the odds and I’ll be looking to beat her.

Profile View

We’re looking for a lady who has run between six and eight times this season; ran well last time; shown form at nine furlongs or more; with Grade 1 form to her name; and either ran in the last 30 days or posted a bullet workout in the same period. Phew!

In a race that has thrown up winners at big odds, two outsiders that fit the bill better than most are Its Tea Time and Milwaukee Appeal.

Best Nine Furlong Speed Ratings

These are the girls with the best speed ratings at nine furlongs:

Malibu Prayer                    103
Life At Ten                          101
Unrivalled Belle                                100
Milwaukee Appeal          99
Acoma                                  97
Blind Luck                            94
Acting Happy                     93
Its Tea Time                        89

Summary / Selections

Malibu Prayer posted the fastest time over the trip, when she was allowed an easy lead at Saratoga in a Grade 1 at the trip. If she could get loose on the lead here, she may well be still around in the straight and hang in for a place. That being the case, she’ll figure on my exactas ‘underneath’ but I can’t have her winning.

The two aforementioned ‘rags’ have cases to be made for them. Its Tea Time isn’t the quickest, but she is tough and has won two of her last three. She’s unexposed on fast dirt, and has a win at the distance. Although she’s a big longshot, Spain bagged this here at Churchill Downs at 56/1, and One Dreamer also won here at Churchill in this race at 47/1. Chuck in 14/1 Round Pond here in this race, and it might be worth taking a bit of a punt!

The more likely of my two outsiders is Milwaukee Appeal. She has much less to find on the clock; has accumulated the second highest amount of prize money; and is older and wiser than the favourite, at four years of age.

Nearer the top of the bookies’ chalk board, Unrivalled Belle is a perennial Grade 1 starter, and has been first or second in ten of her lifetime eleven starts. That becomes even better as she has won five and been second four times in nine fast dirt starts, and she’s figured in the first two in four of five starts at the trip. Oh, and she’s also won her only start here. The 11/1 with Coral may not last, and she looks a fine each way pick here.

Havre de Grace is another for whom a decent enough case could be made.

Likeliest Winner: Unrivalled Belle
Contender(s): Milwaukee Appeal, Its Tea Time, Havre de Grace
Best Outsider(s): Milwaukee Appeal

Good luck on Friday! And I’ll have more for you in the next few days regarding Saturday’s card.

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6 replies
  1. peter glossop says:

    Hi Matt,

    On your breeders cup preview can you tell me what the letters against horses running style mean


    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Peter,

      My apologies. Yes, there are three main running styles: horses who are front runners (or Wire horses, ‘W’); horses who track the lead (or stalk, ‘S’); and horses who sit off the pace and make a late run (or rally, ‘R’).

      Some horses vary their pace style – as they do in UK, and indeed everywhere – between a couple of these styles, and this is where you’ll see for instance, WS. Meaning the horse runs both from the front and sometimes near the front.

      Finally, if you see for instance Ws (i.e. capital W, small s), this means the horse is predominantly a front-runner but occasionally sits just off the lead.

      Hope that clarifies.


  2. Sean says:

    Matt , An excellent evaluation and presentation , as most of us here , have no ratings or real form guides to work on . Many thanks, and enjoy your racing . Sean ..

  3. Kevin says:

    Hi Matt,

    A very comprehensive review. Excellent stuff. Midday is not a banker unless you get some rain out there. Cecil is on record as saying she grew last winter and is now very heavy shouldered. A hard track will not suit her but is right up the street of Plumania who she beat at Longchamp.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Kevin and John.

      Kevin, agree that Plumania is a fine bet. She’ll also be able to use her acceleration off a likely slow pace, and looks a very, VERY good each way wager.

  4. john says:

    Hi Matt,
    This is the guy in the States again. I agreed with you on some forr Friday but not others.

    5th Race Giant Oak over Awesome G.
    6th Race I like More than Real over Winter.
    7th Race I do like your pick of Informed Decision.
    8h Race agree with Awesome F.
    9th Race Yes for Midday but watch out for Harmious.
    10th Race I like Havre de Grace over the Belle.
    Have a Great Day.

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