2017 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Sat 8th April)

As we head into the last day of the 2017 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 8th April 2017 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent contests, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up the best profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

SATURDAY, 8th April 2017 (ITV/RUK)


2.25 – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

13/14 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
12/14 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
10/14 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/14 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
6/14 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (5 of the last 7 favs have won)
5/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 6 runnings)
15 of the last 19 (79%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 13 (46%) runnings between them
5 of the last 7 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Yorkhill (3/10 fav) won the 2016 running


3.00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

14/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/14 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
14/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
12/14 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
11/14 – Ran within the last 35 days
11/14 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/14 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
8/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Won their last race
5/14 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 6 runnings)
2/14 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 4 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 22 (82%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
Douvan (2/9 fav) won the 2016 running

3.40 – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

13/14 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
12/14 – Had run within the last 35 days
11/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
9/14 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
8/14 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/14 – Unplaced in their last race
3/14 – Won their last race
3/14 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/14 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/14 – Favourites that won
1/14 – Number of Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 20 (55%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Only 3 of the last 18 (17%) winners were aged 10+
Just one winner carried more than 11st in the last 13 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 40 runnings
5 of the last 7 (71%) winners were rated between 134 and 138


4.20 – Ryanair Stayers’ Liverpool Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

13/13 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
12/13 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 30 days
10/13 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
10/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/13 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/13 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/13 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
1/13 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
Thistlecrack (2/7 fav) won the 2016 running

Your first 30 days for just £1


5.15 – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 26 Runnings)

- 26/26 - Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 24/26 - Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/26 - Officially rated 137 or higher
· 23/26 - Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/26 - Aged 9 or older
· 21/26 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/26 - Returned a double-figure price
· 20/26 - Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 20/26 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/26 - Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/26 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 15/26 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 15/26 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 14/26 - Placed favourites
· 14/26 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 13/26 - Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/26 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 8/26 - Trained in Ireland (inc 5 of the last 11 years)
· 6/26 - Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/26 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 4/26 - Won last time out
· 2/26 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/26 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
-2/26 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/26 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

Since 1978, 118 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
13 of the last 18 winners were bred in Ireland
Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
12 of the last 20 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
3 of the last 8 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
9 of the last 14 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
5 of the last 16 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
Only two 8 year-olds have won the last 23 renewals
Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 32 years (75 have attempted)
18 of the last 20 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Trends (14 Year)

13/14 – Had won over at least 3m previously
13/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/14 – Ran less than 50 days ago
12/14 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/14 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
7/14 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
7/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/14 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/14 – Experienced the National fences
5/14 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/14 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 14 renewals is 28/1

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Your first 30 days for just £1