2017 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 7th April)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 7th April 2017 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

FRIDAY, 7th April 2017 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 –  Crabbie's Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/14 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/14 – Finished first or second last time out
10/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Had raced on the flat
7/14 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 20 (75%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 26 (81%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1977
9 of the last 17 (53%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Buveur D’Air (11/4) won the 2016 running


2.50 – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

14/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
12/14 – Aged 7 or younger
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
10/14 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
5/14 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Irish trained winners
27 of the last 28 (96%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
23 of the last 26 winners had won over at least 3m before
32 of the last 36 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
12 of the last 15 (80%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
Native River (11/2) won the 2016 running


3.25 – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

14/14 – Raced within the last 30 days
12/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
9/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/14 - Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Irish-trained winners
6/14 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
20 of the last 26 (77%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
28 of the last 31 (90%) winners were aged 7 or older
12 of the last 22 (55%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 26 (73%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
11 of the last 13 (85%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
24 of the last 26 (92%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
God’s Own (10/1) won the 2016 running

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4.05 –  Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

13/14 – Raced within the last 34 days
13/14 – Aged 10 or younger
11/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/14 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
9/14 – Raced within the last 23 days
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
4/14 – Trained by Peter Bowen
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 11 (64%) winners raced in last year’s race
9 of the last 11 (82%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
9 of the last 13 (69%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994
Eastlake (22/1) won the 2016 running


4.40 – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

12/14 – Had run within the last 35 days
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/14 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Raced in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last time out
3/14 – Favourites that won
2/14 – Won by Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
20 of the last 22 (91%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 24 (83%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
12 of the last 23 (52%) winners won over at least 3m previously
7 of the last 11 (64%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Ballyoptic (9/1) won the 2016 running

 

 

 

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