2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 17th March)

Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 


DAY FOUR: Friday 17th March 2017


13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

Pluses…..

  • 18 of the last 23 winners won last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (6 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 13 first ran over hurdles in November
  • 9 of the last 11 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 4 of the last 8 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 10


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 10 runnings
  • 4 of the last 9 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • The last 11 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were priced in double-figures
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners in the last 13 years
  • 10 of the last 16 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 3 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Only 6 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005 116 runners rated 140+ have lost
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts (0 from 63 since 1994)

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 12 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 11 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 10 of the last 12 had run in a race over 3m
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 11 favourites won
  • Jonjo O’Neill (2) and the Irish (4) have won 6 of the last 11

 

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles (0 from 32)
  • Willie Mullins is 0 from 25 in the race
  • Only 1 of the last 12 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

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15:30 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 17 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
  • 14 of the last 16 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 16 had won or placed 2nd at the festival before
  • 15 of the last 16 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 15 of the last 16 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 8 of the last 11 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 11 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 9 winners since 2000 HADN’T run in the calendar year

 

Negatives….

  • Non Grade One winners are 0 from the last 17 runnings
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 68)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 3 from last 16
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 72)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 38
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 17 (had last 4 seconds though)
  • Just 1 of the last 9 winners had raced more than 3 times that season

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

Pluses…..

  • 24 of the last 26 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 23 of the last 31 won last time out
  • 25 of the last 28 started out in point-to-point races
  • 9 of the last 11 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won last 6)
  • The last 5 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 7 of the last 8 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 9 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • 25 of the last 26 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers (0 from 53)
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 3 from 197 since 1990

 

16:50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

Pluses….

  • All 8 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 23 of the 25 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 6 of the 8 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 4 of the 8 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the 8 winners were rated 133-139
  • 5 of the 8 winners returned at a double-figure price
  • 5 and 6 year-olds have won ALL 8 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 8 in the race
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (2 winners, 3 places)

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe camp has a poor record so far (0 from 17)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 8 year history (5/7 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 38

17:30 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 17 winners carried 11st or less
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had run at the festival before 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Keep the Irish horses on your side
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (3 winners, 8 placed)
  • The last 6 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 8 runnings
  • 5 of the last 6 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 16 of the last 17 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Runners carrying more than 11st haven’t run well in recent years
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 1 win from the last 17 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just four winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 11
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 26 since 2005
  • No winner rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season are 0 from 97, since 2005
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