Champion Hurdle Trends: Yanworth home and hosed?

2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 14th March)

Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY ONE: Tuesday 14th March 2017

13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

Pluses…..

  • 18 of the last 20 winners won their last race
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 6 of the last 7 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 17 of the last 22 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 14 of the last 25 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 11 of the last 12 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 4 times since 2007 and for 3 of the last 4 years
  • 20 of the last 22 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci, Trainer Willie Mullins & Jockey Ruby Walsh have won 3 of the last 4 runnings.

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 2 from the last 20. In other words look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (33) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just one ex-flat horse win since 2008 (50 runners)

 

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • 15 of the last 16 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 9 of the last 13 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
  • 9 of the last 16 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 30 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just two of the last 26 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 3 of the last 25 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
  • Dovan (2016) was the first Supreme Hurdle winner (prev season) that has followed-up since 1965

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 17 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 11 of the last 16 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 16 were novices or second season chasers
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 142-146
  • 7 of the last 14 won last time out
  • 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
  • The last 5 winners all wore headgear
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note

Negatives….

  • Avoid any horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 8 of the last 12 carried 10-12 or less
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 19

15:30 Stan James Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

Pluses….

Your first 30 days for just £1
  • 27 of the last 33 won last time out
  • The Irish and Henderson have won 14 of the last 18 runnings
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 21 of the last 32 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous seasons festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (3 winners, 4 places in last 9 runnings)
  • 13 of the last 21 winners started as flat horses
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 1 from 98 since 1985
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older
  • Just 2 of the last 10 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle winners are 2 from 24

 

16:10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won all 9 previous runnings
  • 7 of the last 9 favourites have won
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • The last 6 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • All 21 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners

16:50 JT McNamara National Hunt Chase   4m

Pluses…..

  • 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • Favourites have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
  • 3 of the last 6 winners were top-rated
  • 4 of the last 6 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 5 of the last 10 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 4 of the last 7 had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • Note horses wearing headgear
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were rated 146 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus (6 winners) owned runners
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 74 since 1989
  • Be cautious of Paul Nicholls runners – he’s currently 0 from 17 in the race

17:30 The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Respect 7 year-olds
  • Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
  • 5 of last 8 won last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3rd)
  • Look for Henderson, O’Neill  & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
  • Avoid horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
  • The Irish are just 1 from the last 12 runnings
Your first 30 days for just £1
1 reply
  1. Michael says:

    Hi.thanks for da tips.1.TO get the TRend and TRainer and stables +_Owners top results performance is a great help! How can we reverse engineer??? What is the best COmputer and software??? I need to declutter before St Patrick,s DAy! The place is full of newspapers and sporting results!!! The place could catch fire!!! How do I keep it simple and in the (:
    money? ;

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