2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 16th March)

Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY THREE: Thursday 16th March 2017

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase   2m 4f

Pluses….

  • 5 of the 6 winners were Irish-trained
  • Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 6 winners
  • 4 of the last 6 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • All 6 past winners had run at the Festival before
  • 5 of the 6 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the 16 top three finishers won last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 4 of last 6

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • The top-rated horse is yet to win
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 2 winning favourites in 6 runnings (1 co)
  • No winner had less than 3 career chase starts
  • No winner had been off for more than 54 days


14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
  • 10 of the last 16 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 6 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 7 of the last 16 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses

Negatives….

  • Just 2 Irish-trained winner in the last 11 runnings
  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • 5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
  • Horses rated 142 or higher have a poor record
  • French-bred horses are 0-68
  • 1 winning favourite in last 11 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 14
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 1 from 32


14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

Pluses….

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  • 17 of the 23 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • The last 4 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 8 of the last 9 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 8 of the last 9 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is a good guide
  • The previous renewal is often a good guide
  • 9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • The last 5 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 8 of the last 9 were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 12 were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase
  • 9 of last 12 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time head-gear (2 from 7)
  • 7 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 1 from 37 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below

 

15:30 Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 12 won last time out
  • 15 of the last 16 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 15 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 14 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 11 of the last 12 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (1 from 17)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before (0 from 34 in the last 12 runnings)
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 14)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 57
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 48)


16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 29 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • The last 8 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • Venetia Williams, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 19 runnings
  • 15 of the last 16 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 20 of the last 25 winners had run at the Festival before

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 2 winners since 1951
  • 1 favourite in the last 11 years
  • 2 of last 22 won with 11st+
  • Novices are 1 from 38 since 2005


16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

A new race (runs just once before) Willie Mullins won the 2016 race with Limini


17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 5 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 6 of the last 7 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 16 of the last 17 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 5 of the last 6 winners wore headgear
  • 7 of the last 8 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 8 winners

Negatives….

  • Just two Irish winners for 33 years (but have won 2 of the last 3)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record (0 from 65)
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 18
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 47 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 67 since 2009
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1 reply
  1. darkorse says:

    Very useful in finding the profile of horses which run well in specific races..Pendra very unlucky not to win in the last race… as you noted above, non claiming amateur jockeys have a good record and over 3 miles in last race. 16/1 each way I’ll take that 🙂

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