Willie top of the pile, but not alone in scoring well

2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 15th March)

Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY TWO: Wednesday 15th March 2017

13:30 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 19 of the last 22 win and place horses came from the top 4 in the betting
  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 11
  • All of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 6 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 12 of the 18 places
  • 16 of the last 18 were NH bred
  • 12 of the last 19 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 6 placed in last 12 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 51 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 31 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 16 Challow Hurdle winners have been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten, 0 from 27)

14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 8 winners ran in the Flogas Chase that season
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 8 of the last 9
  • Irish bred horses are 17 from 20
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had win a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls do well in the race
  • 21 of the last 24 were novice hurdling last season
  • 5 of the last 7 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (49 of the last 50 winners had)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
  • Avoid unbeaten horses over fences (2 from 28)
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior (0 from 76 since 1993)
  • Just 1 of the last 17winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • All 20 winners of the Kauto Star (Feltham, Kempton) have lost

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 12 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 6 of the last 8 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 10 of the last 11 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 17 of the last 22 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-trained runners
  • 8 of the last 15 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 13 of the last 23 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 8 winners)
  • The last 12 winners had run 32 days or longer ago
  • Respect Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson-trained horses (2 wins each since 2010)

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 13 years
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 27 to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
  • Only 3 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • None of the last 12 winners had run in the last 32 day – look for horses that have had a small break
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles

 

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15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 16 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 3 of the last 4 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 21 of the last 32 had won at the festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 9 between them
  • 13 of the last 14 winners had run that calendar year
  • 34 of the last 35 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were French-bred
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were second season chasers
  • 15 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 17 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chases

Negatives….

  • Only one winner priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 35 years
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 15 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • None of the last 11 winners had run in more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – they are just 2 winners since 1977

16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase   3m 7f

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 9 of the last 12 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won 4 times)
  • 8 of the last 11 winners carried 10-13 or less
  • 15 of the last 19 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 7 of the last 12 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 12 between them)
  • 8 or the last 12 winners were aged 10 or older
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 9 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • The favourites are just 1 from the last 10

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 92
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Willie Mullins is 0 from 11
  • Paul Nicholls is 0 from 16

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 12 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • 19 of the last 30 (win/place) were French bred
  • Respect Fillies
  • The last 6 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 9 of the last 12 had run in the last 25 days
  • Pipe, Nicholls, Elliot and King-trained horses do well
  • 4 of the last 5 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 11 of the last 11 winners were rated between 124-133

 

Negatives….

  • No recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 28 between them
  • Only 2 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • Not winner had raced at Cheltenham before

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

Pluses….

  • 22 of the last 24 had won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (17 from 33)
  • 4 of the last 7 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 16 of the last 24 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 24 were Irish-bred
  • 9 of the last 16 winners were second season horses
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 14 of the last 16 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 14 had been beaten in a race before
  • 5 of the last 7 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (8 winners), but is just 2 from last 27 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 18-6

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 50 since 2000
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often target the race
  • 1 winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
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