2017 Punchestown Festival Trends

2017 Punchestown Festival Trends: A massive week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (25th-29th April). Plenty of big names on show with a lot of Cheltenham and Aintree Festival winners also in attendance - Like all big race meetings we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….

 

DAY ONE – Tuesday 25th April 2017

 4.20 - HERALD CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) (5yo+) 2m

7 of the last 12 runnings went to the favourite
7 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
11 of the last 12 recent winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
7 of the last 12 returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
No British-trained winner for 18 years (14 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only followed-up 3 times
11 of the last 12 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Noel Meade has won the race in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Edward O’Grady has won the race in 2003, 2007 & 2011
Willie Mullins won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2014 & 2015
Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 of the last 11 winners
5 of the last 9 ran in that season’s Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle
14 of the last 17 winners came 1st or 2nd last time out

 

5.30 - BOYLESPORTS.COM CHAMPION CHASE (GRADE 1) (5yo+) Winner €86,800 2m

6 of the last 14 runnings went to the favourite
13 of the last 18 winners came from the first three in the betting
French breds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings
11 of the last 15 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 15 had previous won at the track
All of the last 15 winners had won before over 2m
12 of the last 15 came 1st or 2nd last time out
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2008 & 2009
10 of the last 15 were Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 were aged 9 or younger
5 of the last 12 finished unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
11 of the last 14 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
6 of the last 14 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010 & 2015
God’s Own won the race 12 months ago

DAY TWO – Wednesday 26th April 2017

5.30 – CORAL PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP (GRADE 1) (5yo+) 3m1f

Past Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 –CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

12/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Irish-trained winners
9/14 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/14 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
7/14 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 6/1
6 of the last 12 favourites have won
Seven of the last nine Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
8 of the last 18 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

6.05 – RACING POST CHAMPION INH FLAT RACE (GRADE 1) (4-7yo) 2m

2 winning favourites in the last 12 years (1 joint)
11 of the last 13 were aged 5 or older
The Cheltenham Champion Bumper has produced 12 winners since 1992
12 of the last 25 winners finished 6th or better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Cheltenham)
24 of the last 25 winners had raced 2 or more times before
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Not many mares have run in the race, but 3 have won it since 1994
Trainer Noel Meade won the race in 2004, 2006, 2007
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016
Patrick Mullins rode the winner in 2008, 2011, 2012 & 2015
Nina Carberry rode the winner in 2006 & 2007
The Irish have won 11 of the last 13 runnings

 

DAY THREE – Thursday 27th April 2017

4.50 – FRIENDS FIRST CROSS COUNTRY CHASE FOR THE LA TOUCHE CUP (5yo+) 4m1f

6 winning favourites in the last 11 years (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 12 of the last 18 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
Nina Carberry rode the winner in 2006 & 2009
7 of the last 11 carried 12-3 or more
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 9 or older
5 of the last 11 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
19 of the last 22 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
9 of the last 11 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race

5.30 - LADBROKES.COM CHAMPION STAYERS HURDLE (GRADE 1) (4yo+) 3m

Past Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle Winners

2016 – ONE TRACK MIND (10/1)
2015 – JEZKI (5/2)
2014 – JETSON (20/1)
2013 – QUEVEGA (6/4 fav)
2012 – QUEVEGA (11/10 fav)
2011 – QUEVEGA (8/11 fav)
2010 – QUEVEGA (5/2 fav)
2009 – FIVEFORTHREE (5/4 fav)
2008 – BLAZING BAILEY (10/3 fav)
2007 – REFINEMENT (16/1)
2006 – ASAIN MAZE (8/13 fav)
2005 – CARLYS QUEST (25/1)
2004 – RHINESTONE COWBOY (5/2)
2003 – HOLY ORDERS (6/1)

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Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle Betting Trends

12/14 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival earlier that season
12/14 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Irish trained winners
7/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
6/14 – Trained by Willie Mullins
5/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/14 – Ran in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle last time out
Only one World Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 17 runnings
12 of the last 14 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The market leader has won 9 of the last 16 runnings
11 of the last 16 winners won their previous race
9 of the 20 runnings have been won by a British-trained horse
7 of the last 13 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time out
9 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+ before
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

6.40 - RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE (GRADE 1) (5yo+) 2m

4 winning favourites in the last 6 runnings
10 of the last 11 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or older (only 4 of the last 21 aged 6 or younger)
7 of the last 11 were aged either 7 or 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2
19 of the last 21 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
7 of the last 11 winners ran in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that same season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 9 times they have had runners
12 of the last 13 winners had run at least 4 times over fences previously
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2009, 2013, 2015 & 2016

DAY FOUR – Friday 28th April 2017

5.30 – BETDAQ PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

7 of the last 12 favourites (1 joint) have won
7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
The last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or older
10 of the last 18 winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
9 of the last 18 winners ran in that season’s Ryanair Hurdle (Leopardstown)
The current Champion Hurdler is yet to finish out of the top two
11 of the last 12 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016
The last 6 winners returned odds-on in the betting
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 & 2016
11 of the last 12 winners were Irish-trained
Vroum Vroum Mag won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

6.05 – TATTERSALLS IRELAND CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m4f

9 of the last 12 favourites have won
7 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 years-old
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 15 runnings
9 of the last 19 winners ran at that season’s Fairyhouse Easter Meeting
13 of the last 16 winners won last time out
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old

DAY FIVE – Saturday 29th April 2017

4.25 – AES CHAMPION FOUR YEAR-OLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

4 winning favourites in the last 12 runnings
All of the last 12 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Ruby Walsh has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015 & 2016
10 of the last 11 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
5 of the last 9 winner ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
9 of the last 19 runnings went to a British-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 3/1

 

 

 

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