Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview/Tips: Native River bids for Gold Cup glory

2018 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Thurs 12th April)

Another top week for jump racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting kicks-off on Thursday 12th April 2018 with the ITV cameras showing five races LIVE each day.

We get going on DAY ONE with the Betway Bowl, Aintree Hurdle and the Randox Health Foxhunters’ Chase are some of the key highlights so there is bundles to look forward to.

As always with the big meetings, here at GeeGeez we've all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

THURSDAY, 12th April 2018 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 – DOOMBAR ANNIVERSARY 4YO JUVENILE HURDLE 4YO GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

2017 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL (4/11 fav)
Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/15 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/15 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
9/15 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 11)
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 13 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 10 of the last 19 (53%) runnings
13 of the last 18 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5 of the last 28 winners didn’t win at least twice over hurdles before

2.50 – BETWAY BOWL CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: TEA FOR TWO (10/1)
Trainer: Nick Williams
Jockey: Lizzie Kelly

12/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
6/15 – Aged in double-figures
4/15 - Won by the Pipe stable
3/15 - Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won last time out
15 of the last 34 (44%) winners were aged 10 or older
23 of the last 34 (68%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 25 (52%) renewals and 6 of the last 8 (75%)
4 of the last 7 winners ran in this race 12 months ago
3 of the last 9 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

3.25 – BETWAY AINTREE HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: BUVEUR D’AIR (4/9 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/15 - Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/15 – Irish-trained winners, plus 18 of the last 42
9/15 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
9 of the last 17 (53%) winners had won at this meeting before
6 of the last 11 Champion Hurdle winners to race have lost
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 1 of the last 17 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won

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4.05 – THE RANDOX HEALTH FOX HUNTERS´ CHASE (CLASS 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2017 Winner: DINEUR (16/1)
Trainer: James King
Jockey: Mickey Bowen

15/15 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 32 were younger than 9)
12/15 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged in double-figures
11/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Irish-trained winner (Just 4 since 1983)
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
22 of the last 25 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 34 winners were aged younger than 9
21 of the last 25 (84%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
9 of the last 13 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 10 of the last 16 (63%) renewals

 

4.40 – BETWAY RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2017 Winner: Double W’s (8/1)
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Jockey: Brian Hughes

14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Carried 11-1 or less
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/15 – Aged 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 - Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/15 – Aged 7 or younger
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winner
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 13 of the last 20 (65%) runnings
16 of the last 18 (89%) winners carried 11-2 or less
A Novice has won 8 of the last 16 (50%) renewals
3 of the last 11 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 19 (37%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)

 

 

 

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