2018 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Sat 14th April)

As we head into the last day of the 2018 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 14th April 2018 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent contests, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up the best profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

SATURDAY, 14th April 2018 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 – Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: Finian’s Oscar (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

14/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
13/15 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/15 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
11/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
11/15 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/15 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/15 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 8 favs have won)
6/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 7 runnings)
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 14 (43%) runnings between them
6 of the last 8 runnings went to a 5 year-old

 

3.00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2017 Winner: San Benedeto (4/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Nick Schofield

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
15/15 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
15/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/15 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/15 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
9/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/15 – Won their last race
6/15 – Favourites that won
5/15 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/15 – Irish-trained winners
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 7 runnings)
2/15 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 5 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 6 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 23 (78%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season

 

3.40 – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: Sizing Codelco (10/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

13/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
13/15 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/15 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
9/15 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/15 – Unplaced in their last race
3/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Favourites that won
1/15 – Number of Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Only 3 of the last 19 (16%) winners were aged 10+
Only 2 winners carried more than 11st in the last 14 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 41 runnings
6 of the last 8 (75%) winners were rated between 134 and 139

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4.20 – Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2017 Winner: Yanworth (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Alan King
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/14 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
12/14 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 30 days
10/14 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
10/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/14 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/14 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
7 of the last 9 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 9 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this

 

5.15 – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2017 Winner: One For Arthur (14/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

 

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)

- 26/27 - Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 - Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 - Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 - Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 - Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 - Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 - Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 - Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/27 - Placed favourites
· 14/27 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 14/27 - Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 8/27 - Trained in Ireland (inc 5 of the last 12 years)
· 6/27 - Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/27 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 5/27 - Won last time out
· 2/27 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/27 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/27 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/27 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

Since 1978, 120 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
14 of the last 19 winners were bred in Ireland
Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
12 of the last 21 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
3 of the last 9 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
9 of the last 15 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
5 of the last 16 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
Only three 8 year-olds have won the last 24 renewals
Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 33 years (76 have attempted)
19 of the last 21 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Trends (15 Year)

14/15 – Had won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago
13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/15 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/15 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Experienced the National fences
6/15 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/15 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 28/1

 

 

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1 reply
  1. Rich says:

    It has come a lottery since they lowered the fences. Would love to see the last 5 year trends as a comparative to the old guard trends.

    Reply

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