2018 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 13th April)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 13th April 2018 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

FRIDAY, 13th April 2018 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 –  Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2017 Winner: PINGSHOU (16/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

15/15 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/15 – Finished first or second last time out
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Aged 5 years-old
8/15 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/15 – Had raced on the flat before
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 27 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1977
9 of the last 18 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2.50 – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: MIGHT BITE (8/13 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville

15/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
11/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
6/15 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Irish trained winners
28 of the last 29 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 27 winners had won over at least 3m before
33 of the last 37 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

3.25 – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: FOX NORTON (4/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

15/15 – Raced within the last 30 days
14/15 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/15 - Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Irish-trained winners
6/15 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
20 of the last 27 (74%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
29 of the last 32 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 23 (57%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 27 (70%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
11 of the last 14 (79%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
25 of the last 27 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.05 –  Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2017 Winner: Ultragold (50/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

14/15 – Raced within the last 34 days
14/15 – Aged 10 or younger
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/15 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/15 – Raced within the last 23 days
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Trained by Peter Bowen
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 12 (58%) winners raced in last year’s race
9 of the last 12 (75%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
9 of the last 14 (64%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 25 (56%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40 – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2017 Winner: The Worlds End (3/1)
Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Adrian Heskin

13/15 – Had run within the last 35 days
11/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/15 – Won their last race
5/15 – Raced in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last time out
3/15 – Favourites that won
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (91%)
21 of the last 23 (91%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 25 (80%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
7 of the last 12 (58%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *