2018 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 16th March 2018)

Each day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 16th March 2018

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2017 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL (1st 5/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Richard Johnson

Pluses…..

  • 19 of the last 24 winners won last time out
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • French-bred have filled 8 of the last 9 places (last 3 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 13 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (6 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 14 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 6 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 5 of the last 9 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 11


14:10 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2017 Winner: ARCTIC FIRE (1st 20/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
  • 4 of the last 10 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 6 of the last 10 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 9 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 10 of the last 14 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners in the last 14 years
  • 10 of the last 17 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 9 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 26 (+20pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 25 (+54pts)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 4 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 7 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005 116 runners rated 140+ have lost
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts (0 from 67 since 1993)

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2017 Winner: PENHILL (1st 16/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 13 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 13 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 11 of the last 13 had run in a race over 3m
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 12 favourites won
  • Jonjo O’Neill (2) and the Irish (4) have won 7 of the last 12

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles (0 from 34)
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 29 in the race
  • Only 2 of the last 13 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2017 Winner: SIZING JOHN (1st 7/1)
Trainer – Jessie Harrington
Jockey – Robbie Power

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 18 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
  • 15 of the last 17 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 had won or placed 2nd at the Festival before
  • 15 of the last 17 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 17 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 15 of the last 21 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 12 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 9 winners since 2000 HADN’T run in the calendar year

Negatives….

  • Non Grade One winners are 0 from the last 18 runnings
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 70)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 3 from last 24
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 79)
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record ( 0 from 42)
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 18 (had last 4 of the last 5 seconds though)
  • Just 1 of the last 10 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their 1st Gold Cup are 0 from 66 when running again

Recent Cheltenham Gold Cup Winners

2017 – SIZING JOHN (7/1)
2016 – DON COSSACK (9/4 fav)
2015 – CONEYGREE (7/1)
2014 – LORD WINDEMERE (20/1)
2013 – BOBS WORTH (11/4 fav)
2012 – SYNCHRONISED (8/1)
2011 – LONG RUN (7/2 fav)
2010 – IMPERIAL COMMANDER (7/1)
2009 – KAUTO STAR (7/4 fav)
2008 – DENMAN (9/4)
2007 – KAUTO STAR (5/4 fav)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (15/2)
2005 – KICKING KING (4/1 fav)
2004 – BEST MATE (8/11 fav)
2003 – BEST MATE (13/8 fav)

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Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Trends

15/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had raced within the last 3 months
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
12/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before
9/15 – Rated 170 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Had last raced in the previous year
7/15 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
5/15 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
5/15 – Irish-trained winners
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out
2/15 – Ran in the Lexus Chase last time out
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 5/1

Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 9 or younger
9 of the last 16 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
15 of the last 17 winners were rated 166 or higher
17 of the last 19 winners had won a race already that current season
12 of the last 17 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before
11 of the last 18 winners had run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
All of the previous 18 winners had won a Grade One Chase contest before
The last winner aged older than 10 was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – 20 Year Trends

15/20 – British-trained winners
5/20 – Irish-trained winners (3 of last 4 though)
Willie Mullins (Ire) never trained the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 3 of the last 11 winners (4 in total)

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2017 Winner: PACHA DU POLDER (1st 16/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 27 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 24 of the last 32 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 26 of the last 29 started out in point-to-point races
  • 10 of the last 12 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 7)
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 7 of the last 9 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • 26 of the last 27 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 3 from 209 since 1990

 

16:50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2017 Winner: CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC (1st 12/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – J Slevin

Pluses….

  • All 9 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 (all making handicap debuts)
  • 27 of the 29 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 7 of the 9 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 4 of the 9 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the 9 winners were rated 133-139
  • 6 of the 9 winners returned at a double-figure price (7 of the last 9 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won ALL 9 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 11 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 7 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (3 winners, 3 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 5 years

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 18, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 9 year history (6/8 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 44
  • Only 2 winners have previous Festival experience

 

17:30 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2017 Winner: ROCK THE WORLD (1st 10/1)
Trainer – Jessie Harrington
Jockey – Robbie Power

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • 7 of the last 8 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Keep the Irish horses on your side (won 3 of the last 5)
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (3 winners, 8 placed)
  • The last 7 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 9 runnings
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 5 of the last 7 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 17 of the last 18 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 1 win from the last 22 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just five winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 12
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 27 since 2005
  • Just 1 winner rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record (0 from 106)

 

 

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