2018 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 13th March 2018)

Each day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY ONE: Tuesday 13th March 2018

 

13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

2017 Winner: LABAIK 25/1
Trainer - Gordon Elliott
Jockey - Jack Kennedy

Pluses…..

  • 18 of the last 21 winners won their last race
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 6 of the last 8 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 18 of the last 23 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 15 of the last 26 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 12 of the last 13 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 4 times since 2007 and for 3 of the last 5 years
  • 21 of the last 23 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci, Trainer Willie Mullins & Jockey Ruby Walsh have won 3 of the last 5 runnings.

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 21. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (34) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008

 

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

2017 Winner: ALTIOR 1/4 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey - Nico de Boinville

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 13 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • The last 8 winners won last time out (plus 13 of the last 17)
  • 17 of the last 18 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 10 of the last 14 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
  • 10 of the last 17 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times, including 12 months ago

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 31 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just two of the last 27 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 3 of the last 26 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

 

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

2017 Winner: UN TEMPS POUR TOUT 9/1
Trainer – David Pipe
Jockey - Tom Scudamore

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 18 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 12 of the last 17 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 14 of the last 18 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 17 were novices or second season chasers
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were rated between 142-146
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 10 of the last 17 runnings
  • 7 of the last 15 won last time out
  • 3 of the last 8 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
  • The last 6 winners all wore headgear
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
  • No Irish-trained winner in the last 10 years

Negatives….

  • Avoid any horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 8 of the last 13 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 21
  • Only 1 winner in the last 9 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival

 

15:30 Stan James Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

2017 Winner: BUVEUR D’AIR 5/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey - Noel Fehily

 

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 34 won last time out
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 15 of the last 19 runnings
  • The Irish have won 12 of the last 19 runnings
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 22 of the last 33 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous seasons festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (3 winners, 4 places in last 10 runnings)
  • 13 of the last 22 winners started as flat horses
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 1 from 100 since 1985
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older
  • Just 1 of the last 11 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are 2 from 25

Recent Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle Winners

2017 – BUVEUR D’AIR (5/1)
2016 – ANNIE POWER (5/2 fav)
2015 – FAUGHEEN (4/5 fav)
2014 – JEZKI (9/1)
2013 – HURRICANE FLY (13/8 fav)
2012 – ROCK ON RUBY (11/1)
2011 – HURRICANE FLY (11/4 fav)
2010 – BINOCULAR (9/1)
2009 – PUNJABI (22/1)
2008 – KATCHIT (10/1)
2007 – SUBLIMITY (16/1)
2006 – BRAVE INCA (7/4 fav)
2005 – HARDY EUSTACE (7/2 jfav)
2004 – HARDY EUSTACE (33/1)
2003 – ROOSTER BOOSTER (9/2)

Key Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle Betting Trends

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14/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Rated 159 or higher
12/15 – Had finished in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race the season before
11/15 – Had won 6 or more times over hurdles before
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Irish bred winners
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/15 – Irish trained winners
9/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/15 – Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or more
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/15 - Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/15 – Ran in the previous season’s Champion Hurdle
5/15 – Had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival the previous season
4/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 6 times in all)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/1

Champion Hurdle Stats:
5 year-olds are just 2 from 101 since 1985
28 of the last 34 winners won their previous race
22 of the last 32 winners were placed in the top 4 at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival
20 of the last 22 winners had a race that calendar year (i.e we are looking for horses that have run in 2018)
24 of the last 27 winners hailed from the first 6 in the betting market
Just 2 of the last 27 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone onto win the Champion Hurdle that season (But Faugheen did the double in 2014-15)
Irish-trained horses have won 12 of the last 19 renewals

Champion Hurdle – 20 Year Trends

12/20 – Irish-trained winners
8/20 – British-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) has trained 4 of the last 7 winners
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 3 of the last 9 winners

 

16:10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

2017 Winner: APPLE’S JADE 7/2
Trainer - Gordon Elliott
Jockey - BJ Cooper

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 9 of the last 10 runnings
  • 7 of the last 10 favourites have won
  • Willie Mullins have trained 8 of the last 9 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • All 23 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • No winner of the race to date began their career racing on the flat

 

16:50 National Hunt Chase   4m

2017 Winner: TIGER ROLL 16/1
Trainer - Gordon Elliott
Jockey - Mrs L O’Neill

Pluses…..

  • 11 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • Favourites have won 3 of the last 8 runnings
  • 3 of the last 7 winners were top-rated
  • 4 of the last 7 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 6 of the last 11 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • Note horses wearing headgear
  • 5 of the last 7 winners were rated 146 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned (6 winners) runners
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 12 rides)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 77 since 1989
  • Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 18
  • Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race

 

17:30 The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f

2017 Winner: TULLY EAST 8/1
Trainer – Alan Fleming
Jockey - Denis O’Regan

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 12 of the last 13 winners raced in the last 45 days
  • Respect 7 year-olds – another winner 12 months ago (5/11)
  • Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
  • 5 of last 9 won last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3rd)
  • Look for Henderson, O’Neill & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
  • Avoid horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
  • The Irish are just 2 from the last 13 runnings

 

 

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