2018 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 15th March 2018)

Each day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY THREE: Thursday 15th March 2018

 

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase   2m 4f

2017 Winner: YORKHILL (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

Pluses….

  • 6 of the 7 winners were Irish-trained
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 7 winners
  • 5 of the last 7 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • All 7 past winners had run at the Festival before
  • 6 of the 7 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 5 of the last 7 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 7 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 6 of the last 7 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 7 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 5 of last 7 renewals

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just one British-trained runner so far
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 7
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 3 winning favourites in 7 runnings (1 co)
  • Just 1 of the last 7 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • No winner had been off for more than 54 days

 

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2017 Winner: PRESENTING PERCY (11/1)
Trainer – Patrick Kelly
Jockey – Davy Russell

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or older
  • The last 8 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
  • 10 of the last 17 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 7 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 17 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 9 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses

Negatives….

  • Just 3 Irish-trained winners in the last 12 runnings
  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • 5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
  • French-bred horses are currently on a run of 0-76
  • All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
  • 1 winning favourite in last 12 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 17 (Two 2nds in the last 4 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 1 from 34

 

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2017 Winner: UN DE SCEAUX (1st 7/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

Pluses….

  • 18 of the 25 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • 4 of the last 5 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 9 of the last 10 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 25)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 6 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 13 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 10 of last 13 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time head-gear (2 from 7)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 2 from 40 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 3 of the last 10 won last time out
  • All winners ran 4 or less times that season
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

 

15:30 Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

2017 Winner: NICHOLS CANYON (1st 10/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

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Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 13 won last time out
  • 16 of the last 17 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 16 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 14 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 12 of the last 13 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (2 from 18)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race once
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just twice since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before (0 from 35 in the last 13 runnings)
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 15)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 60
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 50)

Recent Stayers’ Hurdle Winners

2017 – NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
2016 – THISTLECRACK (Evs)
2015 – COLE HARDEN (14/1)
2014 – MORE OF THAT (15/2)
2013 – SOLWHIT (17/2)
2012 – BIG BUCK’S (5/6 fav)
2011 - BIG BUCK’S (10/11 fav)
2010 - BIG BUCK’S (5/6 fav)
2009 - BIG BUCK’S (6/1)
2008 – INGLIS DREVER (11/8 fav)
2007 – INGLIS DREVER (5/1)
2006 – MY WAY de SOLZEN (8/1)
2005 – INGLIS DREVER (5/1)
2004 – IRIS’S GIFT (9/2)
2003 – BARACOUDA (9/4 fav)

Stayers’ Hurdle Betting Trends

13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/15 – Had raced within the last 10 weeks
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
12/15 – Went onto run at the Aintree Grand National Meeting later that season
12/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or less
10/15 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
10/15 – Won their latest race
11/15 – Had raced that calendar year
9/15 – Rated 163 or higher
9/15 – Contested either the Cleeve Hurdle (6) or the Long Walk Hurdle (3) last time out
7/15 – French-bred
7/15 – Went onto win at Aintree later that season
6/15 – Winning favourite
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 5/1

Stayers’ Hurdle Stats:
Every winner since 1972 has been aged 6 or older
Since 1972 there have been 7 previous winners of the race
Horses that ran at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival are 19 from 23
Horses that were placed fourth or better last time out have won 29 of the last 30 renewals
The top five in the betting have finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 7 of the last 14 renewals
Just two Irish-trained winners since 1996 – Solwhit (2013), Nichols Canyon (2017)
All of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or younger

 

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2017 Winner: ROAD TO RESPECT (1st 14/1)
Trainer – Noel Meade
Jockey – BJ Cooper

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 30 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • The last 9 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 20 runnings
  • 16 of the last 17 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 20 of the last 26 winners had run at the Festival before (but 5 of last 7 were having Festival debut)
  • 17 of the last 18 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 17 of the last 18 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 3 winners since 1951
  • 1 winning favourite in the last 12 years
  • 2 of last 23 won with 11st+
  • Winners of chase at Cheltenham before are currently 0-from71

 

16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

2017 Winner: LET’S DANCE (1st 11/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

  • A new race (Just two renewals)
  • Favourites have won both runnings
  • Both winners won last time out
  • Both winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Trainer Willie Mullins won the 2016 & 2017 race
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2016 & 2017
  • Owner Rich Ricci has won the last 2 runnings

 

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

2017 Winner: DOMESDAY BOOK (1st 40/1)
Trainer – Stuart Edmunds
Jockey – Gina Andrews

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 6 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 6 of the last 8 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 16 of the last 18 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 6 of the last 7 winners wore headgear
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 9 winners
  • Nina Carberry placed 6 times, Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times

Negatives….

  • Just two Irish winners for 34 years (but have won 2 of the last 4)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record (0 from 69)
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 19
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 52 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 77 since 2009

 

 

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