2019 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Sat 6th April)

As we head into the last day of the 2019 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 6th April 2019 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent contests, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up the best profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

SATURDAY, 6th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)

2.20pm – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2018 Winner: BLACK OP (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Noel Fehily

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
14/16 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/16 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/16 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/16 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 9 favs have won)
6/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 8 runnings)
17 of the last 21 (81%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 15 (53%) runnings between them
6 of the last 9 runnings went to a 5 year-old

3.00pm – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2018 Winner: DIEGO DU CHARMIL (5/1 odds)

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Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
16/16 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
16/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/16 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/16 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
10/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/16 – Ridden by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/16 – Irish-trained winners
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 8 runnings)
2/16 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 6 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 24 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
7 of the last 10 winners were French bred

3.40pm – Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2018 Winner: IDENTITY THIEF (14/1)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Sean Flanagan

14/15 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
14/15 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/15 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/15 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
10/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/15 – Won their last race
8/15 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/15 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/15 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14 of the last 15 (93%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 15 (87%) had run at this meeting before
13 of the last 15 (87%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 10 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 10 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this

 

4.20pm – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2018 Winner: THOMAS PATRICK (3/1 fav odds)
Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Richard Johnson

14/16 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
14/16 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/16 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
9/16 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/16 – Unplaced in their last race
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
Only 3 of the last 20 winners were aged 10+
Only 2 winners carried more than 11st in the last 15 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 42 runnings
9 of the last 11 (82%) winners were rated between 134 and 140

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2018 Winner: TIGER ROLL (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)
·  27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/28 – Aged 9 or older
· 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price
· 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
· 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/28 – Placed favourites
· 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years)
· 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 6/28 – Won last time out
· 2/28 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

    • Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
    • 10 of the last 11 winners were having their first start in the race
    • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
    • Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
    • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
    • 12 of the last 22 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
    • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
    • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
    • 9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
    • 5 of the last 17 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
    • Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 25 renewals
    • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted)
    • 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
    • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (16 Year)

15/16 – Had won over at least 3m previously
14/16 – Ran less than 50 days ago
14/16 – Officially rated 137 or higher
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/16 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/16 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Experienced the National fences
6/16 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/16 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/16 – Won by the McCain yard

 

 

 

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1 reply
  1. Avatar
    Rich says:

    It has come a lottery since they lowered the fences. Would love to see the last 5 year trends as a comparative to the old guard trends.

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