2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
  • 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
  • Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

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Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
  • 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 14 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 17 of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17 of the last 20 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 14 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 34 won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
  • 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
  • Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
  • 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
  • Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87

 

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