PAISLEY PARK (Aidan Coleman) wins The galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle Cheltenham 26 Jan 2019 - Pic Steven Cargill / Racingfotos.com

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 18th March 2021)

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 18th March 2021)

Each day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 13 of the last 16 winners had won at Cheltenham before. While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw the Rebecca Curtis-trained Lisnagar Oscar win at 50/1 last season.

 

Thursday 18th March (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

 

 1.30 - MARSH Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2020 Winner: SAMCRO 4/1
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell  

Pluses….

  • 8 of the 10 winners were Irish-trained
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 10 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
  • 9 of the 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 10 renewals

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just two British-trained winners so far
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 10
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 10 runnings (1 co)
  • Just 1 of the last 10 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 2 winners had been off for more than 54 days

  2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

 

2020 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 10/1
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 11 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
  • Irish have won the last 5 runnings
  • Sire Du Berlais has won the last 2 runnings
  • 9 of the last 13 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 10 of the last 20 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 10 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 10 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 20 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 12 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
  • Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners
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Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
  • 2 winning favourites in last 15 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 7 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 44

 

  2.50 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

 

2020 Winner: MIN 2/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 22 of the 30 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 13 of the last 16 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 27)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 13 of the last 16 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 16 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 12 of last 16 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 7 of the last 9 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (2 from 9)
  • 9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 7 winners were French-bred
  • All winners ran 4 or less times that season

 

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 4 from 55 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 4 of the last 13 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

 

 3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2020 Winner: LISNAGAR OSCAR 50/1
Trainer – Rebecca Curtis
Jockey – Adam Wedge  

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 16 won last time out
  • 12 of the last 20 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 28 of the last 31 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 17 of the last 20 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 19 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 15 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 13 of the last 16 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 16 of the last 24 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (3 from 21)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 71
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 59)


Stayers’ Hurdle Betting Trends

16/18 – Had raced within the last 10 weeks
15/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
15/18 – Aged 8 or younger
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Had raced that calendar year
12/18 – Went onto run at the Aintree Grand National Meeting later that season
12/18 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
11/18 – Won their latest race
11/18 – Contested either the Cleeve Hurdle (8) or the Long Walk Hurdle (3) last time out
10/18 – Rated 163 or higher
7/18 – French-bred
7/18 – Went onto win at Aintree later that season
7/18 – Winning favourite
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 15/2

Stayers’ Hurdle Stats:

Every winner since 1972 has been aged 6 or older
Since 1972 there have been 7 previous winners of the race
Horses that ran at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival are 22 from 26
Horses that were placed fourth or better last time out have won 32 of the last 33 renewals
The top five in the betting have finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 7 of the last 17 renewals
Just three Irish-trained winners since 1996 – Solwhit (2013), Nichols Canyon (2017), Penhill (2018)
All of the last 33 winners were aged 9 or younger

 

Stayers Hurdle – UK v Irish

18/23 – British-trained winners
2/23 – French-trained winners
3/23 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 4 winners of the race
Willie Mullins (Ire) has trained just 2 winners of the race (2017, Nichols Canyon, 2018 Penhill)
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained just 1 winner of the race (2000, Bacchanal)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 4 of the last 11 winners
Jonjo O’Neill (UK has trained 2 of the last 16 winners

 

 4.10 - Paddy Power Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2020 Winner: SIMPLY THE BETTS 10/3 fav
Trainer – Harry Whittington
Jockey – Gavin Sheehan

Pluses….

  • 27 of the last 33 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • 10 of the last 12 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 10 of the last 17 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 23 runnings
  • 16 of the last 20 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 21 of the last 29 winners had run at the Festival before (but 7 of last 10 were having Festival debut)
  • 20 of the last 21 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 15 years
  • Only 4 of last 26 won with 11st+
  • Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 and 2020 winners did defy this trend.
  • Only 2 of the last 17 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

 

4.50 – Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2020 Winner: CONCERTISTA 9/2
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Daryl Jacob

Pluses….

  • A new race (Just 5 renewals)
  • Favourites have won 3 of the 5 runnings
  • 3 of the last 5 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the 5 winners were French-bred
  • 3 of the 5 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 5 runnings (just 4 runners)
  • 4 of the 5 winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
  • Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

 

 5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2020 Winner: MILAN NATIVE 9/1
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mr R James  

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 10 of the last 13 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 9 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 8 of the last 11 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
    9 of the last 12 winners ran in February
  • Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 18 of the last 21 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 9 of the last 10 winners wore headgear
  • 10 of the last 12 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 12 winners
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
  • Owner JP McManus often does well in the race

Negatives….

  • Just three Irish winners in last 37 years (but have won 4 of the last 7)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 22
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 64 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 2 from 96 since 2009
  • Just 1 of the last 18 winners won last time out

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