Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview, Trends, Tips

2021 Royal Ascot Trends – Day Five (Sat 19th June)

Into DAY FIVE at  ROYAL ASCOT we've SEVEN more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Wokingham Stakes and Hardwicke Stakes, but all eyes will be on some of the best sprinters in the world as they line-up for the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 4.20.

Did you know? 15 of the last 18 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners were aged 5 or younger?

Like all big race days here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

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Saturday 19th June 2021

2021 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Battleground (11/4 fav)
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

 

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
16/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
15/18 – Had just 1 previous career run
14/18 – Were foaled in March or earlier
13/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/18 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien)
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017 and 2020
14 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
12 of the last 15 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

 

3.05 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2020 – Molatham (11/2)
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 -  Just James (20/1)

 

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Jersey Stakes Trends

17/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
15/19 – Had 4 or more career runs
12/19 – Had won over 7f before
11/19 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/19 – Horses from stall 8 placed
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Had run at Ascot before
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/19 – Won their previous race
3/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 9 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 13 runnings

 

3.40 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Fanny Logan (17/2)
2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/18 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
16/18 – Placed last time out
15/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/18 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
12/18 – Had run at Ascot before
12/18 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 10 winners)
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/18 – Won their previous race
7/18 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
12 of the last 15 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
10 of the last 15 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

 

4.20 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Hello Youmzain (4/1)
2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

17/18 – Previous distance (6f) winners
15/18 – Aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Previous Group Race winners
13/18 – Failed to win their last race
13/18 – Had run at Ascot before
11/18 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
4/18 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/18 – Trained by James Fanshawe
6 of the last 16 winners were Irish-bred
8 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
6 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price

 

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV4

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Hey Jonesy (18/1)
2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

 

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends


21/21 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
20/21 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
19/21 – Finished sixth or better last time out
19/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Had won a race over 6f before
18/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/21 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
13/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/21 – Had run at Ascot before (7 had won here)
11/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
6/21 – Won their previous race
5/21 – Won by the favourite
11 of the last 15 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
9 of the last 15 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw
10 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
8 of the last 10 runnings - the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 9 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 8 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 32 winners returning a double-figure price

 

 

5.35 - Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Just the one previous running
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
Jockey Rossa Ryan won this race in 2020
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 6-from-102 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 6-from-91 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Frankie Dettori has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Ryan Moore has a 20% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

6.10 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4


Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Who Dares Wins (Evs fav)
2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

16/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Had run at Ascot before
10/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
6/18 – Won by a NH yard
5/18 – Irish-trained winners
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/18 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
12 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

 

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3 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      No day 5 preview, Vic, as per yesterday’s email and the bottom of the Day 4 preview.

      One day per meeting, it’s all for themselves. Good luck!

      Matt

      Reply

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