Cheltenham Racecourse. 17/03/17 Festival Day 4 The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase. Sizing John ridden by Robbie Power jumps the final fence to win from Djakadam ridden by Ruby Walsh. Photo Andy Watts / Racingfotos.com

2022 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 18th March 2022)

Each day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know, all of the last 19 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger?

 


Friday 19th March 2022 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends

 

    1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2021 Winner: QUILIXIOS (2/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses…..

  • 22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 11 of the last 19 places (last 7 runnings)
  • 12 of the last 17 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (6 of the last 10) last time
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had raced by Christmas time
  • 5 of the last 7 winners began their careers in France
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 8 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Just 2 of the last 17 winner returned bigger than 12/1
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 13
  • Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020 race – currently 1-from-31
  • Last 7 Adonis Hurdles winners have all lost  (all unplaced)

 

2.10 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

 

2021 Winner: BELFAST BANTER (33/1)
Trainer – Peter Fahey
Jockey – Kevin Sexton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 10 of the last 15 runnings
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (3) or Dan Skelton (3)
  • Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 12 runnings
  • 17 of the last 21 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
  • 14 of the last 16 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 8 of the last 14 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 6 of the last 13 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 12 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 11 of the last 23 winners aged 5
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run at Cheltenham before
  • 10 of the last 15 winners Irish-trained
  • 8 of the last 14 winners started their careers in France
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 13 of the last 18 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 11 of the last 21 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 31 (+15pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 43 (+42.5pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 6 renewals

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (158 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last year’s winner defied this trend
  • Horses aged 9+ are 0-from23 in the last 10 years
  • 1 of the last 8 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
  • Just 2 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-from-33) since 2000
  • Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-17) last 11 years

 

    2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2021 Winner: VANILLIER (14/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 17 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 15 of the last 17 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • 15 of the last 17 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won a Point
  • 6 of the last 8 winners trained in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
  • 9 of the last 17 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 17 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 14 of the last 17 had run in a race over 3m
  • 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 13 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 16 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 2 from 40 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 5
  • Gordon Elliott is 0-from-7
  • Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 10 years
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 17 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

    3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

 

2021 Winner: MINELLA INDO (9/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Jack Kennedy

Pluses….

  • 18 of the last 22 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 18 of the last 21 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 18 of the last 22 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • 21 of the last 22 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 17 of the last 21 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 17 of the last 21 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 22 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 12 of the last 14 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 17 of the last 25 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 16 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 19 winners were favourites
  • 13 of the last 17 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
  • ALL of the last 22 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 21 of the last 22 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
  • 20 of the last 22 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
  • Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 35
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 33 (had 4 of the last 9 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 2 of the last 14 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
  • No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

 

 

   4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

 

2021 Winner: PORLOCK BAY (16/1)
Trainer – Will Biddick
Jockey – Lorcan Williams  

Pluses…..

  • 27 of the last 31 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 36 won last time out
  • 18 of the last 19 winners Irish or French bred
  • The last 15 winners were yet to win over this trip
  • 6 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 29 of the last 33 started out in point-to-point races
  • 12 of the last 16 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 7 of last 11)
  • 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 9, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 45 years aged 12 or older
  • 27 of the last 29 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 34 runnings
  • Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • British bred horses are 0-84 (last 19 runnings)
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 251 since 1990
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

 

    4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2021 Winner: COLREEVY (1st 9/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

  • Willie Mullins trained the 1-2 last season
  • Willie Mullins has won 15 of the 21 mares’ only races at the Festival

 

    5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

 

2021 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (8/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keeffe  

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 13 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 9 of the last 11 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 13 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 3 of the last 4 winners had top-weight
  • All 13 winners aged 7 or younger
  • 8 or the last 10 winners rated 139+
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 7 of the last 11 (6 making handicap debuts)
  • 36 of the 38 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 10 of the 13 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 6 of the 13 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 13 winners were rated 133-139
  • 8 of the 13 winners returned at a double-figure price (10 of the last 13 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 11 of last 13 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 20 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 11 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 9 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
  • Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 56
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 13-year history (8-11 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 71
  • Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-91

 

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1 reply
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. tonynorman
    tonynorman says:

    Hi Matt
    With this lockdown continuing I’ve spent the morning studying the Cheltenham Trends on your site. Being a bit of a trends freak I am wont to do this sort of thing! I must congratulate you on such a wealth of information, so clearly presented, easy to read and understand, and provided in such a timely manner. From time to time I look at other sites/publications who deal with Trends, but none compare with the comprehensive manner in which you have covered it – and it is a huge advantage having it available several weeks before the event, rather than the night before, or in the case of the Racing Post, the day of the race. Would it be possible for you to extend this exercise to all the various Festivals during the year, as it would be really helpful to the fairly large number of us who find this information invaluable.
    Congratulations to you and whoever in your team deals with this.
    Thanks.
    Tony

    Reply

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