2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 14th March 2023)

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 33 of the last 39 winners won last time out.

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends

Tuesday 14th March 2023 (Old Course)   

1.30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2022 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL 9/4 jfav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses…..

• 23 of the last 26 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 19 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 11 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 10 of the last 11 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 21 of the last 28 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 17 of the last 31 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 16 of the last 18 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 10 years
• 8 of the last 10 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
• 26 of the last 28 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
• 6 of the last 9 winners had been rated 153 or more
• 9 of the last 10 winners returned a single-figure price
• 9 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper winners

Negatives…..

• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 26. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (38) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 3 of the last 20 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 1 of the last 20 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade

2.10 - Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2022 Winner: EDWARDSTONE (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Alan King
Jockey – Tom Cannon
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• 14 of the last 18 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 17 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• The last 13 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
• 21 of the last 23 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 13 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 15 of the last 20 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 14 of the last 19 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 8 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over fences
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings (all French-bred)
• 8 of the last 11 winners trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson (4 each)
• 8 of the last 11 favourites have won

Negatives…..

• Only 2 of the last 36 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 32 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 31 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

    2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2022 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 23 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 15 of the last 22 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 18 of the last 22 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 22 were novices or second season chasers
• 8 of the last 15 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 14 of the last 22 runnings
• 9 of the last 20 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 9 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 8 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Trophy that season
• 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before
• Northern-based runners have a good record

Negatives….

• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 18 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2022 winner (Corach Rambler carried 10st 2lbs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 54 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 24
• Only 3 winners in the last 14 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 54 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-35 in the last 16 runnings

    3.30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2022 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE (1^st 8/11 fav)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 33 of the last 39 won last time out
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (10 of last 12)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 runnings between them
• 9 of the last 14 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 24 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 13 (10 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
• 27 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (11 of last 16)
• 14 of the last 24 winners had won at the Festival before
• 25 of the last 38 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 6 places in last 15 runnings)
• 14 of the last 27 winners started as flat horses
• The last 8 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 6 years
• 6 of the last 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 9 runnings
• 9 of the last 14 winners were (4) Mullins or (5) Henderson-trained

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 111 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 39 runnings)
• Just 1 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 4 from 32, but – Epatante 2020) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 19 years)
• Only 2 of the last 24 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was 52 years ago (Bula)

    4.10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2022 Winner: MARIE’S ROCK
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• Follow Irish-trained mares (12 of last 15)
• The favourite (or 2^nd fav) have won 11 of the last 15 runnings
• 8 of the last 15 favourites have won
• 12 of the last 12 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 14 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 15 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 10 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 11 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
• 11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 3-86
• Just 1 outright favourite in the last 8 runnings
• Just one winner from last 31 runners to wear headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Dieux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 1 winner aged 8+ (Quevega)

    4.50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2022 Winner: BRAZIL (10/1)
Trainer – Padraig Roche
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 18 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 9 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• 12 of the last 18 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 18 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 12 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 18 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (3 of last 10) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 11 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 11 priced 25/1+)
• 12 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 13 of the last 18 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 15 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 13 runnings
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

• Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 38 between them
• Just 3 of the last 18 winners rated 135+
• Horses bred in Britain are 0-59 (last 14 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 18 (just 2 placed in top 5 too)
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 18

    5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

2022 Winner: STATTLER 2/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses…..

• 13 of the last 21 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 12 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (23 of the last 32)
• 9 of the last 13 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 10 of the last 12 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 6 of the last 12 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 8 of the last 16 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 9 of the last 13 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 8 of the last 12 winners Irish-trained
• 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 16 rides)
• Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 8 of the last 12 (3, Codd, 3 Mullins, 2 O’Connor)
• Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 8
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 10 runners
• 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett

Negatives….

• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 81 since 1989
• Just 4 of the last 12 winners were top-rated
• Favourites have won just 3 of the last 13 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 32 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 12)
• Just 2 winners in the last 14 returned bigger than 12/1

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