2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 16th March 2023)
Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!
Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 14 of the last 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before. While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw the Irish-trained Flooring Porter land in 2021 and 2022.
Thursday 16th March (New Course)
Cheltenham Festival Trends
1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV
2022 Winner: BOB OLINGER 6/5
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachel Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
- 9 of the 12 winners were Irish-trained
- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 12 winners
- 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase before
- 11 of the last 12 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
- 9 of the last 12 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
- 9 of the last 12 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
- 10 of the last 12 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
- 11 of the 12 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 9 of the last 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
- 3 outright winning favourites in the last 8 runnings
- 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
- 11 of the last 12 winners French (4) or Irish (7) bred (6 of last 7 Irish bred)
- 5 of the last 12 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 6 of the last 12 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
- 7 year-olds have won 8 of last 12 renewals
- 7 of the last 8 winners rated 151+
- 3 of the last 12 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
- Gordon Elliott is 2 from 5
- JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 4 winners
Negatives….
- Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
- Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
- The top-rated horse is just 1 from 12
- Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
- 4 winning favourites in 12 runnings (1 co)
- 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
- Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
- Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days
2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: THIRD WIND (25/1)
Trainer – Hughie Morison
Jockey – Tom O’Brien
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
- Irish have won the last 6 of last 7 runnings
- Last 11 winners aged 8 or younger
- Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
- 9 of the last 15 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
- 11 of the last 22 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
- 11 of the last 16 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
- 10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-148
- 11 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m7f
- 9 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
- 6 of the last 10 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
- 7 of the last 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 22 winners won their last race
- 5 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 3 of the last 14 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
- Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
- Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
- Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
- 6 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie
- 6 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
- 5 of the last 7 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negatives….
- Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
- Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
- Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
- 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
- Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
- Only 2 winning favourites in last 17 years
- Just 1 winner in the last 40 aged 10+
- Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 9 runnings)
- Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 48
2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2022 Winner: ALLAHO (4/7 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
- 14 of the 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before
- 7 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season chasers
- All 15 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
- 11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 12 of the last 15 had won or placed at the Festival before
- The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 29)
- The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
- 15 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 14 of the last 15 winners were rated 161+
- Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 5
- 4 of the last 18 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
- 14 of last 18 winners were fav or 2nd fav
- 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 9 of the last 11 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
- Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
- Respect first time headgear (3 from 11)
- 9 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Last 9 winners were French-bred
- All winners ran 5 or less times that season
- 5 of the last 7 winners trained by Willie Mullins
- Last 11 winner aged 9 or younger
- The Irish have won 6 of the last 7 runnings
Negatives….
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- No winner aged 11 or older
- Only 1 of the last 14 winners aged 10
- Just one winner rated 160 or below
- Just 6 of the last 15 won last time out
- No winner was having their Festival debut
3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (4/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
- 13 of the last 18 won last time out
- 7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers
- 20 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 30 of the last 33 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
- 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 17 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
- 8 of the last 21 were French Bred
- Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
- 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
- 8 of the last 16 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
- 19 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
- 14 of the last 18 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
- Respect past winners of the race (Flooring Porter has won the last 2 runnings)
- 17 of the last 26 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
- 3 of the last 5 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
- A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
- Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
- Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
- The Irish are have won the race just 5 times since 1995 (but have won the last 2)
- Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
- Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 74
- Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 33 runningss
- Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 62)
4.10 - Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2022 Winner: COOLE CODY (22/1)
Trainer – Evan Williams
Jockey – Adam Wedge
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
- 28 of the last 35 winners were officially rated 140 or less
- 11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11-0
- Look out for French-breds
- 14 of the last 18 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
- 11 of the last 19 winners had won a race in Feb or March
- Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
- The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 25 runnings
- 17 of the last 22 winners returned at double-figure odds
- 22 of the last 31 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
- 22 of the last 23 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- 9 of the last 13 winners had 9 or less chase runs
- 18 of the last 23 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
- 6 of the last 7 winners were novices or second season chasers
- 17 of the last 19 winners had raced that calendar year
- Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
- 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
- The last 4 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
- The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1982
- Only 3 of the last 19 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
- 4 winning favourites in the last 17 years
- Only 5 of last 28 won with 11st+
- Just 1 winner older than 9 in the last 11 years
- Only 2 of the last 19 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
4.50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV
2022 Winner: LOVE ENVOI
Trainer – Harry Fry
Jockey – Jonathan Burke
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
- A new race (Just 7 renewals)
- All 7 winners aged 5 or 6
- 6 of the last 7 winners trained in Ireland
- Favourites have won 3 of the 7 runnings
- 4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
- 4 of the 7 winners were French-bred
- 4 of the last 7 winners were top or 2nd top rated
- 5 of the last 7 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 5 of the last 7 past winners started their careers in France
- 5 of the last 7 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
- 4 of the 7 winners were unbeaten that season
- Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 7 runnings (just 4 runners)
- 4 of the 7 winners have been aged 5 years-old
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
- Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
Negatives….
- British trained runners are 1-from-49
- British bred mares are 0-from-23
- Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-10
- JP McManus owned are 0-from-8
- 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-20
5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2022 Winner: CHAMBARD
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Lucy Turner
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
- Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
- 11 of the last 15 winners failed to win earlier that season
- 10 of the last 11 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
- 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 137-143
- 9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
- 9 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
- 8 of the last 12 winners hadn’t win that season
10 of the last 14 winners ran in February - Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
- Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
- 19 of the last 23 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
- Look for non-claiming amateur riders
- 8 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
- 11 of the last 14 winners came from the top 6 in the market
- Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 14 winners
- Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
- Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 11)
- 18 of the last 20 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
- Just 5 Irish winners in last 39 years (but have won 5 of the last 9)
- Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
- Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
- Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
- Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
- French breds are 1 from 74 since 2005
- Jus 2 of the last 18 winners aged 10+
- Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 102 since 2009
- Just 2 of the last 20 winners won last time out
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